Football is a funny game. Most people look at the schedule, see two teams from different conferences that barely ever play each other, and assume it'll be a boring, forgettable afternoon.
If you thought that about the Tampa Bay Bucs vs Houston Texans, you've clearly been living under a rock.
Honestly, this matchup has turned into one of the weirdest, most electric little rivalries in the league. It's not a rivalry in the "we hate your guts" sense like the Bears and Packers. It's more of a "every time we play, something historic and slightly insane happens" kind of thing.
Look back at November 5, 2023. That game basically changed the trajectory of two franchises.
That One Rainy Day in Houston
Okay, it wasn't actually raining inside NRG Stadium, but it was pouring points.
C.J. Stroud was just a rookie then. People knew he was good, but they didn't know he was "throw for 470 yards and five touchdowns in a single game" good. That performance broke the NFL record for passing yards by a rookie in a game. Basically, he turned the Bucs' secondary into a highlights reel for his own Rookie of the Year campaign.
The Bucs, led by Baker Mayfield, weren't exactly slouching either. They put up 37 points. In most NFL games, 37 points is a guaranteed blowout win. But Stroud marched those Texans down the field with 46 seconds left and hit Tank Dell for a touchdown with only six seconds on the clock.
Final score: 39-37. It was the kind of game that leaves you staring at the TV for ten minutes after the whistle, wondering what you just watched.
🔗 Read more: Liverpool FC Chelsea FC: Why This Grudge Match Still Hits Different
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Houston Texans: The Rematch That Settled the Score
Fast forward to the 2025 season. Because of the way the NFL rotates its "17th game" schedule, these two found themselves facing off again on Monday Night Football on September 15.
The storylines were perfect.
- Baker Mayfield was looking for revenge.
- C.J. Stroud was coming off back-to-back AFC South titles.
- The Bucs hadn't won in Houston since 2003.
It felt like a carbon copy of the previous meeting, but with the roles reversed. Houston took a lead late in the fourth quarter on a Nick Chubb touchdown run. It looked like the "Houston Hex" was going to continue for Tampa Bay.
Then Baker happened.
Mayfield scrambled on a fourth-and-10—totally vintage Baker—and kept the drive alive. With six seconds left (the exact same time left as the 2023 game), Rachaad White punched it in for a touchdown.
The Bucs won 20-19. It wasn't the high-flying shootout of 2023, but it was just as gut-wrenching for the fans in the stands.
Why This Matchup is a Betting Nightmare
If you're into sports betting, the Tampa Bay Bucs vs Houston Texans is basically a coin flip wrapped in a mystery.
💡 You might also like: NFL Football Teams in Order: Why Most Fans Get the Hierarchy Wrong
Since the Texans entered the league as an expansion team, they actually lead the series 5-2. That’s pretty surprising given the Bucs have two Super Bowl rings in that same timeframe. Houston has just always seemed to have their number, especially at home.
But things are shifting. The 2025 win for Tampa Bay broke a massive drought. It showed that Todd Bowles’ defense, which usually struggles against elite young quarterbacks like Stroud, finally found a way to bend without breaking. They sacked Stroud to stop a two-point conversion that ultimately would have won the game for Houston.
The "Other" Heroes
We talk about the quarterbacks because, well, that's what everyone does. But these games are usually decided by the guys you aren't watching.
Take Dare Ogunbowale. In the 2023 game, Houston's kicker got hurt. Ogunbowale—a running back who used to play for the Bucs—had to step in and kick a 29-yard field goal. He made it. A running back kicking a go-ahead field goal against his former team is the kind of script even Hollywood would reject for being too cheesy.
Then there’s Mike Evans. He’s been the constant. Whether it's 2019 or 2025, Evans just exists to catch 100 yards of passes and make DBs look silly. In the most recent matchup, his battle with Derek Stingley Jr. was basically a chess match at 20 miles per hour.
What the Future Holds
The 2026 NFL schedule has already been determined by the standard rotation. While the full dates aren't out yet, we know the Texans will be playing the NFC North and the Bucs will be back in their usual NFC South grind.
However, because both teams are consistently finishing near the top of their divisions, the "performance-based" scheduling means we’ll likely see them face off again sooner rather than later.
📖 Related: Why Your 1 Arm Pull Up Progression Isn't Working (And How to Fix It)
If you are a fan of either team, keep these things in mind for the next time they meet:
- The 6-Second Rule: Both of the last two games were decided by scores with exactly six seconds left on the clock. Don't leave your seat until the clock hits zero.
- The Stroud Factor: C.J. Stroud has a career passer rating against the Bucs that looks like a video game stat. If he’s playing, the over is usually a safe bet.
- The Baker Resurgence: Baker Mayfield has joined the ranks of quarterbacks like Doug Williams who can win games with their legs and their heart when the play breaks down.
The Tampa Bay Bucs vs Houston Texans might not be the biggest rivalry in football on paper. It doesn't have the history of the Cowboys and 49ers. But in terms of pure, unadulterated drama?
It's top-tier.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the injury reports for the next meeting. Specifically, look at the Bucs' offensive line. In 2025, they had to shuffle three different positions just to keep Mayfield upright. If they're healthy next time, the Texans' pass rush—led by Will Anderson Jr.—will have a much harder time.
Watch the tape from the September 2025 game to see how Tampa finally solved the Houston riddle. It wasn't through big plays; it was through "situational football" and not letting Stroud get the ball back with time on the clock.
Next time these two squads meet, grab the popcorn. You're going to need it.