The 2025 season didn't exactly end with a parade. It ended with a whimper, a tiebreaker loss, and the Carolina Panthers—of all teams—taking the NFC South crown. Now, Jason Licht is staring at a 2026 cap sheet that looks like a jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces chewed by a dog.
People love to talk about "reloading." Honestly? This feels a lot more like a renovation where you find mold behind the drywall.
The Tampa Bay Bucs free agency period is officially here, and the vibes are complicated. We aren't in the "all-in" Brady years anymore. We aren't in the "dead money" purge of 2023 either. We’re in this weird middle ground where the team has about $24 million to $43 million in cap space (depending on who you ask at Over the Cap or Pewter Report) but needs to replace about six starters just to field a functional team.
The Mike Evans Dilemma: Sentiment vs. Salary
Let's get the elephant out of the room. Mike Evans is a free agent. Again.
There’s a segment of the fanbase that thinks you pay him whatever he wants until he’s 40. I get it. He’s a legend. But he’s 32 now, and the "1,000-yard streak" is starting to feel like a heavy weight the franchise is carrying rather than a simple badge of honor. He struggled with injuries late in 2025.
If the Bucs bring in a new offensive coordinator—since Josh Grizzard was shown the door—does a veteran like Evans want to learn yet another scheme? Or does he go home to Galveston and sign with the Houston Texans to ring-chase with C.J. Stroud?
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Licht has a tough choice. You’ve got Chris Godwin's $33.6 million cap hit sitting there, and Jalen McMillan looks like a legitimate stud. Do you really drop $20 million a year on a 33-year-old receiver when the defense is currently leaking oil?
Goodbye to the 2022 Draft Class?
It’s kind of wild how fast things move in the NFL.
Rachaad White is basically gone. He’s already been posting "goodbye" vibes on social media, and honestly, it makes sense for both sides. Bucky Irving is clearly the more explosive runner, and Sean Tucker (a Restricted Free Agent himself) showed more juice in limited snaps. White is a great guy and a reliable pass-catcher, but 4.3 yards per carry isn't worth a second contract in this economy.
Then there’s Cade Otton. He’s a "glue guy." But is he a "pay him $12 million a year" guy? Probably not. The Bucs have a massive hole at tight end if they let him walk, yet they desperately need a vertical threat at that position to help Baker Mayfield.
The $50 Million Question: Baker’s Regression
Baker Mayfield is entering the final year of his deal with a cap hit near $39 million, but that number balloons if they don't extend him.
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The problem? 2025 was a step back.
He didn't have the same magic. The offensive line was a revolving door of injuries, sure, but Baker’s decision-making regressed. Now the Bucs have to decide: do you double down and give him a $150 million extension to lower his 2026 cap hit, or do you let him play it out and risk him walking for nothing in 2027?
It’s a terrifying game of chicken. If you extend him, you're married to him. If you don't, you might not have the cap space to fix the defense this March.
The Defensive "Must-Haves"
The defense needs a total facelift. It’s not just a "tweak."
- Edge Rusher: The Haason Reddick experiment was a disaster. 2.5 sacks for $12 million? Yikes. With Reddick hitting the market, Yaya Diaby is essentially alone on an island.
- Cornerback: Jamel Dean restructured his deal specifically to hit free agency early. He’s likely gone. Zyon McCollum had a rough 2025, and while Benjamin Morrison (last year’s rookie) has potential, you can’t go into 2026 with just "potential" at corner in a division with Drake London and Chris Olave.
- Linebacker: This is the heartbreaker. Lavonte David is 36. He’s a free agent. Most insiders expect him to retire. Replacing a Hall of Fame brain in the middle of the defense is impossible, but the Bucs have to try.
Realistic Targets for Tampa Bay Bucs Free Agency
The Bucs won't be big spenders on Day 1. That’s just not Licht’s style lately. They’ll wait for the second wave.
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Keep an eye on the interior defensive line. Vita Vea is 31 and the team didn't restructure him last year—that’s a signal. They need a running mate for Calijah Kancey, who is brilliant when healthy but is rarely healthy.
And don't be surprised if they look at a "vet minimum" quarterback like Jameis Winston or even a reunion with Kyle Trask to compete for the backup spot. Teddy Bridgewater was a stopgap, and it’s time for a real QB2.
How to Navigate the 2026 Offseason
If you're following the Tampa Bay Bucs free agency saga, here is how to judge success this spring:
- Watch the Restructures: If Licht restructures Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke early, it means he’s clearing space for a "big fish." If he doesn't, expect a very quiet March.
- The Evans Deadline: If Mike Evans isn't signed by the start of the new league year, he's likely gone. The dead money hit of $13 million is already there; they need a new deal to spread that out.
- The "Hidden" Signings: Look at the 14 players signed to futures contracts, like Mohamed Kamara and Marcus Banks. These aren't just camp bodies; the Bucs are banking on these cheap deals to fill out the roster because they can't afford 22 high-priced starters.
The Bucs are at a crossroads. They can try to squeeze one more year out of the old guard, or they can finally lean into the youth movement led by Wirfs, Winfield, and Kancey. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Next Steps for Fans:
Monitor the NFL salary cap official announcement in late February. If the cap exceeds the projected $301 million, the Bucs gain significant leverage in keeping Mike Evans. Keep an eye on the "Legal Tampering" window starting March 10th for news on Jamel Dean’s market value, which will dictate if the Bucs can afford a veteran replacement or must target a corner in the first round of the draft.