If you look at the schedule for the 2026 season, you won't see these two names next to each other. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs matchup isn't on the books for this year because, frankly, the NFL schedule rotation is a cruel mistress. But that doesn't mean the tension has cooled off. In fact, following a 2025 season where both teams basically fell off a cliff, the conversation around this rivalry has shifted from "Who's the dynasty?" to "Who can actually fix their mess first?"
Honestly, it’s kinda wild how fast things change in this league.
A few years ago, this was the "GOAT vs. The Kid" narrative with Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Now? We're looking at a Buccaneers team that just finished 8-9, losing seven of their last nine games in 2025, and a Chiefs squad that—wait for it—actually missed the playoffs last year. Yeah, you read that right. The "soft reset" is officially underway in Kansas City, and the vibes in Tampa are... well, they're complicated.
The Rainy Monday Night That Still Stings
The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs actually meant something on the field was that rainy Monday night in November 2024. Most people remember the highlights—DeAndre Hopkins looking like his 2017 self, hauling in two scores—but the real story was the coin toss.
Baker Mayfield led an absolute masterclass of a 71-yard drive to tie the game at 24-24 with 27 seconds left. Then, Todd Bowles decided to kick the extra point instead of going for two. You've heard the debate a million times by now.
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In overtime, the Chiefs won the toss.
Baker never touched the ball.
Kareem Hunt punched it in.
Game over.
That 30-24 loss was basically the beginning of the end for Tampa's 2024 momentum, and it set the stage for the inconsistent 2025 campaign we just witnessed. It's the kind of game that defines why this matchup is so frustrating for Bucs fans. They always seem to be right there, but the Chiefs have this annoying habit of finding a way to win even when Mahomes’ ankle is hanging by a thread, which it literally was in that game.
The Patrick Mahomes vs Baker Mayfield History
You can't talk about Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs without talking about the quarterbacks. It’s not just an NFL thing. This goes back to that legendary 2016 college game between Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
- Mahomes threw for 734 yards (still an NCAA record).
- Mayfield threw for 545 yards and 7 touchdowns.
- Final score: 66-59.
They’ve been trying to out-gun each other for a decade. While Mahomes has the rings, Baker has this weird, gritty "wrestler" energy that makes him the perfect foil. In the 2024 matchup, Baker was incredibly efficient, completing 23 of 31 passes. He didn't have the flashy 400-yard game, but he outplayed Mahomes for large stretches of the second half.
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The problem? Mahomes is Mahomes. Even in a "down" 2025 where he struggled with interceptions and a lack of reliable targets, he still manages to be the guy everyone fears in the fourth quarter.
What most people get wrong about Super Bowl LV
People love to say the Bucs "solved" Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV. They didn't. They solved his offensive line. The Chiefs were missing both starting tackles, and the Bucs' front four—led by Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul—basically lived in the backfield. Mahomes ran for 497 yards before throwing the ball or getting sacked that night. It was the most pressured any QB had been in Super Bowl history.
That 31-9 blowout remains the only time Mahomes has failed to score a touchdown in a professional game. It's the high-water mark of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs rivalry, and honestly, the Chiefs have been playing with a chip on their shoulder about it ever since.
The 2026 Reset: New Faces, Same Stakes
Both franchises are at a massive crossroads right now. The 2025 season was a wake-up call.
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In Tampa, the seat under Todd Bowles is scorching. The fans are restless. They’ve got the weapons—Mike Evans is still a machine, and Chris Godwin is reliable as ever—but the coaching deficiencies were exposed last year. The search for a new offensive coordinator is the biggest story in town. They need someone who can maximize Baker's deep ball while keeping Bucky Irving involved in the run game.
Meanwhile, in Kansas City, it's about the "Great Reset." Travis Kelce is weighing retirement. The defense needs a boost. There are even rumors they might target a guy like Trey Hendrickson to give Chris Jones some help.
The reality is that while we won't see a Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs game in the 2026 regular season, these two teams are essentially competing in a mirror. They are both trying to figure out how to transition from their recent "glory days" into a sustainable future.
Strategic Takeaways for 2026
If you're betting on or following these teams as they gear up for the new season, keep these specific factors in mind:
- The Offensive Coordinator Factor: Tampa's success in 2026 depends entirely on who they hire to replace the Liam Coen-style system. If they go too conservative, Baker will struggle.
- Chiefs' Roster Refresh: Watch the draft. If the Chiefs don't find a legitimate WR1 to help Mahomes, the "off year" of 2025 might become a trend rather than a fluke.
- The Health of Tristan Wirfs: Tampa’s offensive line looked lost when Wirfs was out with an oblique injury last year. He is the heartbeat of that unit.
- Nickel Defense Evolution: Keep an eye on Jacob Parrish in Tampa. He was a bright spot in a mediocre 2025 secondary and could be the key to stopping high-powered offenses like KC's in the future.
The rivalry might be on a "hiatus" for 2026, but the shadow of their past battles—especially that Super Bowl—still looms over every move these front offices make.
Next Steps for Fans:
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the NFL's official free agency tracker starting in March. Specifically, watch if Kansas City clears cap space by restructuring Mahomes' contract, as this will signal whether they are going "all-in" for a 2026 comeback or sticking to the slow rebuild. For Bucs fans, the announcement of the new offensive coordinator will be the single most important data point for predicting Baker Mayfield's 2026 production.