Wisconsin is a weird place for politics. Honestly, it’s basically the only spot in the country where you can find a person wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat while simultaneously casting a vote for a progressive stalwart like Tammy Baldwin. In the 2024 Tammy Baldwin senate race, that’s exactly what happened. While Donald Trump was busy flipping the state red at the presidential level by a margin of about 29,000 votes, Baldwin was pulling off her own narrow victory by almost the exact same number.
It was a nail-biter. Baldwin finished with 49.3% of the vote, while her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, landed at 48.5%. That’s a gap of just 0.85 percentage points. If you think that sounds like a stressful night for a campaign staff, you’re right. It was the narrowest win of Baldwin’s career. In 2012, she won by 6 points. In 2018, she cruised by 11. But 2024? This was a different beast entirely.
The Strategy Behind the Survival
So, how does a Democrat survive in a state where the top of the ticket is losing? Baldwin has this reputation for being "Wisconsin-focused" that isn't just a tagline; it’s a survival mechanism. She basically spent the last year visiting every corner of the state, including the rural "red" counties that most Democrats usually just drive through on the way to Madison or Milwaukee.
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She focused on things like the Farm Bill and local manufacturing. You’ve probably seen the ads—lots of tractors, lots of flannel. It works. She managed to secure an endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau, which is the first time they’ve backed a statewide Democrat in over two decades. That’s huge. It’s the kind of crossover appeal that prevents a "red wave" from becoming a total washout.
The Hovde Factor
Eric Hovde wasn't exactly a pushover. He’s a wealthy businessman who put about $13 million of his own money into the race. He tried to tie Baldwin to inflation and the "status quo" in D.C. He also hit her hard on her personal life and her partner’s career in the financial sector.
The "carpetbagger" label was a constant shadow over Hovde, though. He has deep ties to California—he owns a bank there and has a massive home in Laguna Beach. Baldwin’s team hammered this. They painted him as a guy who didn't understand why Wisconsin milk prices mattered because he was too busy looking at the Pacific Ocean. Whether that's fair or not, it stuck with enough swing voters to make the difference.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The demographics tell a fascinating story about who actually showed up. While the national trend showed a shift toward Republicans among Latino and Black voters, Baldwin held onto enough of the traditional Democratic base to stay afloat.
- Black Voters: Historically the most loyal Democratic bloc, though support dipped slightly by about 3 points statewide compared to 2020.
- The Gender Gap: Women carried Baldwin. While men moved toward Trump by a significant margin, women supported the Democratic ticket at roughly 55%.
- Split-Ticket Saviors: About 4% of Trump voters in Wisconsin decided they liked Baldwin enough to keep her around. That’s roughly 60,000 people who voted for Trump and Baldwin.
The Spoiler Effect
We have to talk about the "spoiler" candidates. In a race decided by 29,000 votes, third-party candidates are more than just a footnote.
- Thomas Leager (America First Party) took 28,751 votes.
- Phil Anderson (Disrupt the Corruption Party) took 42,315 votes.
Hovde actually complained about this after the election. He claimed Leager was a "plant" designed to siphon off conservative votes. Whether you believe that or not, the math is brutal: if those 71,000 third-party votes had mostly gone to Hovde, he’d be a Senator right now.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of folks think this race was won on social issues like abortion. While that was definitely a huge driver for the Madison and Milwaukee suburbs, Baldwin’s real secret sauce was the "Buy American" stuff. She spent a lot of time talking about the Tammy Baldwin senate race in terms of trade and supply chains.
She leaned into her role on the Appropriations Committee. Basically, she told voters, "I’m the one making sure your bridge gets fixed and your factory stays open." In a state that has seen its fair share of manufacturing jobs vanish, that kind of kitchen-table talk carries more weight than a thousand TV ads about national culture wars.
The Aftermath and Recount Drama
For about two weeks after the election, Hovde wouldn't concede. He floated some theories about "late-night ballot drops" in Milwaukee—which is really just how Milwaukee always reports its absentee ballots. Because the margin was under 1%, he had the right to request a recount, but he would’ve had to pay for it himself.
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On November 18, 2024, he finally called it quits. He posted a video saying he wouldn't pursue a recount because it wouldn't change the outcome without a court order to investigate the "integrity" of the votes. With that, Baldwin was officially headed back to Washington for a third term.
What This Means for You (The Actionable Part)
The Tammy Baldwin senate race isn't just a piece of trivia. It’s a blueprint for how to win in a purple state. If you’re following politics or working in advocacy, here’s what you should take away from this:
- Localize, Localize, Localize: Don’t just talk about "The Economy." Talk about the specific factory in Janesville or the dairy price in Barron County.
- The Power of the Endorsement: Getting the Farm Bureau or a local labor union to back you is worth more than a celebrity endorsement any day of the week.
- Watch the "Others": In tight races, keep a very close eye on the third-party candidates. They aren't just noise; they are the margin.
- Respect the Split-Ticket: Never assume a voter's choice at the top of the ballot dictates their choice at the bottom. Wisconsin proves that voters are perfectly capable of wanting a Republican President and a Democratic Senator at the same time.
For more updates on how the new Senate balance of power affects Wisconsin, check the official FEC filings for 2026 or stay tuned to local Madison news outlets which have the best boots-on-the-ground reporting.