If you were looking at the map of Wisconsin on election night 2024, things looked pretty grim for Democrats. Donald Trump was carving a path through the "Blue Wall," flipping counties and eventually securing the state’s electoral votes. But then there’s Tammy Baldwin. While the top of the ticket faltered, Baldwin managed to pull off a victory that feels almost like a glitch in the matrix of modern polarization.
Honestly, the Tammy Baldwin election results are some of the most fascinating data points we've seen in years. She didn't just win; she survived a red wave in a state that was moving in the opposite direction.
The Numbers That Defied the Trend
Let’s talk raw data. Baldwin pulled in 1,672,777 votes. That gave her 49.33% of the total, barely squeaking past Republican challenger Eric Hovde, who landed at 48.48%. We are talking about a margin of roughly 29,000 votes. In a state of millions, that’s basically a rounding error.
What’s wild is how she did it compared to Kamala Harris. Baldwin actually outperformed Harris in 65 out of Wisconsin’s 72 counties. She didn't just hide in Madison and Milwaukee. She went out and grabbed votes in places where Democrats usually go to get ignored.
For instance, look at the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington). These are traditionally deep-red suburbs. While Hovde still won them, Baldwin improved her standing there. In Ozaukee, she snagged over 43% of the vote. In a world where every percentage point is a battle, that’s a massive shift.
🔗 Read more: When is the Next Hurricane Coming 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
The "Trump-Tammy" Voter Mystery
You’ve probably heard of "split-ticket" voting. Most pundits say it's dead. They’re wrong.
The 2024 Tammy Baldwin election results prove that the "Trump-Tammy" voter isn't a myth. Around 4,000 more people voted for Baldwin than for Harris. Even more telling, Hovde received about 55,000 fewer votes than Trump did. This means a significant chunk of people walked into that booth, checked the box for Donald Trump, and then moved their pen over to Tammy Baldwin.
Why? It basically comes down to brand. Baldwin has this "Buy American" persona that resonates with the same working-class voters Trump targets. She was the first Democrat in over 20 years to get endorsed by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau. You don't get that by being a standard partisan.
How Hovde Lost the Narrative
Eric Hovde wasn't exactly a weak candidate on paper. He had the money—loaning his own campaign $20 million—and the Trump endorsement. But he struggled with the "carpetbagger" label. The Baldwin campaign hammered him on his ties to California, and it stuck.
💡 You might also like: What Really Happened With Trump Revoking Mayorkas Secret Service Protection
Then there was the "America First" candidate, Thomas Leager. Hovde later blamed Leager for siphoning off 28,724 votes, claiming he was a "plant" by Democratic operatives. While the math shows Leager's total was almost exactly the margin of Hovde's loss, it's a bit of a stretch to say all those votes would have gone to Hovde. Voters who pick a fringe "America First" party are often just as likely to stay home if that option isn't there.
The Midnight (and 4 a.m.) Drama
If you stayed up late, you saw the "Milwaukee Drop." Hovde made a lot of noise about 100,000 absentee ballots appearing at 4 a.m. and going heavily for Baldwin. He even suggested it was "statistically improbable."
Kinda sounds familiar, right? But the reality is much more boring. Wisconsin law—unlike many other states—prohibits clerks from processing absentee ballots before Election Day. Milwaukee is huge. It takes forever to count those ballots. They always report late, and they always lean blue because urban voters use mail-in ballots more frequently. Baldwin actually got about 82% of those late-night votes, which was right in line with her overall performance in the city.
Historical Context: The Narrowest Win
This was easily the closest of Baldwin's three Senate runs.
📖 Related: Franklin D Roosevelt Civil Rights Record: Why It Is Way More Complicated Than You Think
- 2012: Beat Tommy Thompson by about 6 points.
- 2018: Crushed Leah Vukmir by 11 points.
- 2024: Squeaked by with 0.85%.
It’s the first time since 1968 that Wisconsin sent a Republican president and a Democratic senator to D.C. at the same time. Back then, it was Richard Nixon and Gaylord Nelson. It shows that even in 2026, Wisconsin remains the ultimate "purple" state.
What This Means for You
The Tammy Baldwin election results offer a blueprint for how a Democrat can survive in "Trump Country." It's not about moving to the center on every issue; it's about localized messaging. Baldwin focused on dairy farms, timber, and manufacturing—real "kitchen table" stuff.
If you’re trying to understand where the country is headed, don't just look at the presidential map. Look at the margins in states like Wisconsin. The split-ticket voter is the most powerful person in American politics right now.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Analyze Your County: Check the official Wisconsin Elections Commission website to see the raw vote gap between the Presidential and Senate races in your specific area.
- Watch the Legislation: Keep an eye on Baldwin’s "Buy American" bills in 2026. This is her signature issue and the reason she kept those rural votes.
- Follow the Money: Look into the 2026 midterm spending patterns. After the 2024 results, expect both parties to pour even more into "micro-targeting" these split-ticket voters.
The 2024 cycle proved that personal brand still matters more than party lines in the Badger State. Whether you love her or hate her, Baldwin’s ability to "show up" in red territory is a masterclass in political survival.