Sweet 16 Women's Basketball 2025: What Really Happened With the Favorites

Sweet 16 Women's Basketball 2025: What Really Happened With the Favorites

If you were watching the sweet 16 women's basketball 2025 matchups back in March, you saw the exact moment the sport shifted from a "star-heavy" narrative to a "depth-wins-titles" reality. It wasn't just about the household names anymore. While everyone was waiting for the usual suspects to sleepwalk into the Final Four, the regional semifinals in Spokane and Birmingham delivered a masterclass in high-stakes pressure.

UConn was trailing at the half against Oklahoma.
South Carolina looked human for three quarters against Maryland.
USC had to play without JuJu Watkins.

Honestly, the energy was electric. Most fans expected the top seeds to cruise, but the Sweet 16 is where the "mid-major" magic usually dies and the heavyweights start throwing real haymakers. In 2025, those haymakers nearly connected.

The Night Paige Bueckers Rewrote the Record Books

You can't talk about the sweet 16 women's basketball 2025 slate without mentioning the explosion in Spokane. Paige Bueckers was playing like someone who realized her college eligibility was finally running out. Trailing 36-32 at halftime against a gritty Oklahoma squad, the Huskies looked out of sync. Then the second half happened.

Bueckers went nuclear.

She dropped 29 points after the break alone. By the time the final buzzer rang, she had a career-high 40 points, setting a new UConn program record for a single NCAA tournament game. It wasn't just the scoring, though; it was the efficiency. She matched her career high with six 3-pointers, essentially erasing a Sooners lead that Payton Verhulst had spent the entire second quarter building. Oklahoma played a nearly perfect first half, jumping out to an 8-0 lead and keeping UConn off-balance with a zone that looked impenetrable until Bueckers decided it wasn't.

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The Huskies walked away with an 82-59 win, but the score makes it look way easier than it actually was for the first 20 minutes.

Survival Mode in Birmingham

While UConn was lighting it up out West, the defending champs were in a dogfight in Alabama. South Carolina entered the Sweet 16 as the juggernaut nobody could touch. Maryland didn't care. The Terps held a 60-59 lead with just over three minutes left in the game. You could hear a pin drop in the arena.

MiLaysia Fulwiley saved the season.

She scored a go-ahead layup with 2:22 remaining that sparked a 7-0 Gamecocks run. Maryland, led by Kaylene Smikle's 17 points, just couldn't find the basket in the final stretch. South Carolina eventually escaped with a 71-67 victory, but it exposed some rare cracks in Dawn Staley’s armor. Chloe Kitts was the unsung hero here, quietly racking up 15 points and 11 rebounds while the backcourt struggled to find their rhythm against Maryland’s physical perimeter defense.

The Most Surprising Stats from the Regional Semifinals

If you’re a numbers person, the 2025 Sweet 16 was a bit of an anomaly. Usually, the higher seed dominates the glass, but we saw some serious parity in the trenches.

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  • LSU vs. NC State: The Tigers won 80-73, but the real story was Aneesah Morrow. She recorded her 30th double-double of the season with 30 points and 19 rebounds. LSU’s 18-10 advantage on the offensive glass was the only reason they survived a Wolfpack team that shot significantly better from the field for most of the night.
  • UCLA’s Dominance: Lauren Betts was practically perfect. She shot 15-of-16 from the field against Ole Miss. You don’t see 31 points on that kind of efficiency in the second weekend of the tournament very often.
  • The Free Throw Factor: TCU made 22 of 24 free throws in their 71-62 upset over Notre Dame. In a game decided by single digits for 35 minutes, that 91% clip from the charity stripe was the literal difference-maker.

Why the sweet 16 women's basketball 2025 Bracket Broke Hearts

The biggest "what if" of the tournament happened in the Spokane 4 regional. USC was the No. 1 seed, but they had to face Kansas State without their superstar JuJu Watkins, who was sidelined. Most people wrote the Trojans off immediately.

Freshman Kennedy Smith had other plans.

She stepped into the starting spotlight and dropped 19 points. USC used a 12-0 run in the third quarter to pull away, eventually winning 67-61. It was a gritty, ugly, beautiful win that proved the Trojans weren't a one-woman show. Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee did everything she could with 12 points and a massive defensive presence, but the Wildcats couldn't capitalize on USC’s 15 turnovers.

Then you had the Hailey Van Lith factor.

Now at TCU, Van Lith looked like the version of herself that took Louisville to the Final Four years ago. She scored 12 of her 26 points in the fourth quarter to take down Notre Dame. It was a classic "vet vs. youth" matchup against Hannah Hidalgo, and this time, the experience won out. TCU reached their first-ever Elite Eight on the back of that performance.

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Tactical Shifts That Changed Everything

Coach Geno Auriemma made a subtle tweak at halftime of the Oklahoma game that most people missed. He moved Sarah Strong to the high post to draw out Oklahoma's rim protectors. This opened the lanes for Bueckers to slash rather than just settling for contested jumpers.

Similarly, Kim Mulkey at LSU switched to a full-court press in the final four minutes against NC State. The Wolfpack had been handling the half-court set easily, but the sudden change in tempo forced two crucial turnovers by Zoe Brooks that led to an LSU 10-0 closing run. These aren't things you see in the box score, but they're why these teams advanced.

Actionable Insights for Future Tournament Following

Watching the sweet 16 women's basketball 2025 tournament taught us a few things that apply to every March Madness going forward. If you're looking to understand the game better or even just win your bracket next year, keep these in mind:

  1. Watch the Offensive Glass: Teams like LSU prove that you can shoot poorly and still win if you get 15+ second-chance opportunities. Rebounding margin is the most predictive stat in the Sweet 16.
  2. The "Senior Guard" Rule: Players like Paige Bueckers and Hailey Van Lith don't want their careers to end. In the Sweet 16, bet on the team with the elite senior guard over the team with the talented freshman every single time.
  3. Efficiency over Volume: Lauren Betts showed that one dominant post player who shoots 90% is more valuable than three guards who take 20 shots each.
  4. Injury Depth Matters: USC’s win without JuJu Watkins proved that a well-coached No. 1 seed usually has a "Plan B" that involves a highly-rated recruit who has been waiting for their moment.

The 2025 Sweet 16 wasn't just a bridge to the Final Four. It was a standalone showcase of how much the talent pool has deepened. When the No. 10 seeds are pushing No. 2 seeds to the brink, you know the game is in a healthy spot.

To truly analyze the impact of these games, you should look back at the shooting charts from the second half of the UConn-Oklahoma game. Seeing where Bueckers took her shots—mostly in transition and from the left wing—reveals exactly how the Huskies exploited the Sooners' fatigue. You can find these detailed breakdowns on the official NCAA stats portal or through advanced tracking sites like Her Hoop Stats.