Susan Collins of Maine is a survivor. That's the only way to put it.
If you followed the 2020 election, you probably remember the headlines. Every pollster, every pundit, and basically every data nerd in D.C. said she was done. The "blue wave" was supposed to wash her right out of the Senate. But when the dust settled, she didn't just win; she crushed it, beating Sara Gideon by nine points while Joe Biden won the state by the exact same margin.
She has this weird, almost supernatural ability to exist in two worlds at once. To some, she’s the last of the "moderate" Republicans—a throwback to an era of compromise that feels like ancient history. To others, she’s a source of constant frustration, someone whose "concerns" rarely lead to the floor votes they hope for.
Honestly, the 2026 cycle is already looking like a repeat of that same drama.
The 2026 Reelection Fight
The political map for 2026 is brutal for Republicans, and Collins is sitting right in the crosshairs. She is the only Republican Senator up for reelection in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024. That makes her a statistical anomaly. A unicorn.
She's already signaled that she’s running for a sixth term. At 73, she’s not showing any signs of slowing down, even though her approval ratings have taken a bit of a nosedive recently. Some polls from late 2025 show her underwater, with a significant chunk of Mainers saying it might be time for someone new.
But betting against her is usually a bad move.
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The Democratic field is already getting crowded. You've got names like Graham Platner leading some early primary polls, and the specter of Governor Janet Mills always looming in the background. If Mills jumps in, it’s a heavyweight bout.
The Power She Actually Holds
People often focus on her "swing vote" status, but they miss where her real power lies. Right now, she’s the Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. That is a massive deal.
If you want a bridge built in Aroostook County or funding for Maine’s lobster industry, you go through her. She controls the purse strings for the entire federal government's discretionary spending. This seniority is exactly why many Mainers, even those who disagree with her on national social issues, keep pulling the lever for her. They know she brings home the bacon.
Her Current Committee Roles:
- Senate Committee on Appropriations (Chair)
- Select Committee on Intelligence
- Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP)
She has maintained a perfect voting record since 1997. She has never missed a single roll-call vote. That’s over 9,800 votes. Whether you like her or not, you have to admit that’s a level of discipline most people can't fathom.
What Most People Get Wrong About Her Independence
There’s a common critique that Collins only breaks with her party when it doesn’t matter.
Critics call it "performative." But if you look at the 119th Congress, she’s been a thorn in the side of the MAGA wing more than once. She was a "no" on the confirmation of Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Kash Patel for the FBI. She was the 50th "nay" on a major domestic spending bill in 2025, which forced Vice President J.D. Vance to come down and break a tie.
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She’s also been vocal about climate change in a way most of her colleagues aren't. She’s worked with Democrats on PFAS legislation—those "forever chemicals" that are a huge problem for Maine's farmers.
The "Trump" Factor in Maine
The relationship between Susan Collins and Donald Trump is, well, complicated. It’s a cold war.
Trump isn't endorsing her for 2026. He’s made it clear he isn’t a fan, yet he isn't actively trying to primary her yet either. On the flip side, Collins didn't vote for him in 2016 (she wrote in Condoleezza Rice), didn't endorse him in 2020, and has kept her distance in 2024.
This puts her in a lonely spot. She’s too "RINO" for the base and too "GOP" for the liberals.
Yet, in Maine’s 2nd District—Trump country—she still performs well. Why? Because she speaks the language of the Pine Tree State. She grew up in Caribou, way up north. She knows how to talk to people who work in the woods and on the water.
Navigating the Ranked-Choice Maze
Maine uses ranked-choice voting. This is the secret sauce to her longevity.
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In a standard "winner-take-all" system, a moderate can get squeezed out. But in Maine, you can be people’s second or third choice. In 2020, she managed to win 51% of the vote in the first round, which meant the ranking didn't even matter, but the system generally favors someone who doesn't alienate the middle.
If the 2026 race goes to multiple rounds, she’s the person you’d expect to pick up those crucial "second-choice" votes from independents.
What to Watch Next
If you are trying to gauge if she'll survive 2026, don't look at national polls. They don't matter here.
Watch the fundraising. If national Democrats dump $100 million into Maine again like they did in 2020, it might actually backfire by making the challenger look like a "tool of D.C. elites."
Also, keep an eye on the "forever chemicals" (PFAS) legislation. If she can deliver a massive federal cleanup package for Maine’s soil and water, her approval ratings will likely bounce back.
Actionable steps for Maine voters and observers:
- Track her Appropriations work: Follow the Senate Appropriations "Chair's Marks" to see specific Maine carve-outs.
- Watch the Primary: June 9, 2026, is the date. If she faces a serious challenge from the right, it could drain her resources before the general.
- Check the 2nd District: If her support in Northern Maine dips below 55%, she’s in real trouble.
The story of Susan Collins of Maine isn't over. She's the last of her kind, and she's not going down without a fight.