So, you're looking at the Surprise AZ weather forecast and thinking it’s just another "sunny with a chance of golf" kind of day. Honestly, you're mostly right, but if you actually live here or you're just visiting to escape a Midwest blizzard, there’s a bit more nuance to the January air than the brochures suggest.
Right now, as of early Friday morning, January 16, 2026, it is a crisp 49°F outside. It's clear. It's quiet. The wind is barely moving—just a 1 mph puff from the northeast. If you’re heading out for an early morning walk at Surprise Community Park, you’re going to need that light jacket. Probably a beanie too, if you’re like me and the desert "cold" hits you a little harder than it should.
Today’s Forecast: Friday, January 16, 2026
Basically, today is a total winner. We are looking at a high of 77°F. That is a solid 10 to 12 degrees above the historical January average for Surprise. Normally, we’d be hovering around 65°F or 66°F, so this "heat wave" (if you can call it that) is a pretty sweet gift for mid-January.
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The sun is going to be out in full force. The humidity is sitting at a dry 29%, which is that classic Arizona "comfortable" feel. UV index is hitting a 3, so while it’s not summer-level skin-scorching, you’ll still want some SPF if you're spending the afternoon at the Surprise Stadium watching practice or just hanging in the backyard.
Tonight will stay clear, dropping back down to a low of 47°F. No rain. Zero percent chance. It’s the kind of weather that makes people want to move here until they remember what July feels like.
The Rest of the Week: Sun, More Sun, and a Tiny Twist
If you’ve got plans for the weekend or the start of the work week, the Surprise AZ weather forecast is staying remarkably consistent. This isn't one of those weeks where the forecast changes every hour.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Expect more of the same. Sunny skies with a high of 76°F and a low of 47°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Mostly sunny. The high stays at 76°F, but the overnight low dips just a bit to 44°F.
- Monday, Jan 19 (MLK Day): A few clouds might drift in, making it "partly sunny," with a high of 74°F.
It’s a bizarrely stable pattern. Usually, January can be a bit more "breezy" or even "moderately chilly," as some climate reports describe it. But right now? We are in a tranquil, warm bubble.
The Surprise "Winter" Reality
People often get Surprise weather wrong because they assume "Arizona = Hot" 24/7. In reality, the diurnal temperature swing here is no joke. Today’s 30-degree difference between the high and the low is standard. You’ll start the day in a hoodie and end it in a T-shirt.
Historically, January is actually our coldest month. While we’re enjoying 77°F today, there have been years like 2013 and 2023 where the highs barely cracked 60°F and the lows bottomed out at 40°F. If you're looking at the long-range forecast toward the end of the month, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and other long-term outlooks suggest a "sunny but cold" stretch coming after January 23rd.
We might see some light showers around January 22nd—Time and Date is currently spotting a 21% chance of light rain for next Thursday. But until then, it’s dry as a bone.
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Practical Tips for the Next Few Days
Since the weather is so nice, everyone is going to be outside. If you’re one of them, keep a few things in mind:
- Hydration is sneaky. Even at 77°F, the low humidity sucks the moisture right out of you. You won't feel "sweaty," but you're losing water.
- The Shade Rule. In the sun, it feels like 80°F. In the shade, it feels like 70°F. If you’re sensitive to the cold, pick a table in the sun at lunch.
- Dust and Allergies. With no rain in the immediate forecast and very light winds (2 mph southwest for most of today), the air can get a little stagnant. If you’ve got sensitive sinuses, keep an eye on the local air quality levels, though they’re generally fine this time of year.
Honestly, just enjoy it. This is peak Arizona living. Grab your sunglasses, leave the umbrella in the closet, and make the most of this mid-January warmth before the "late January chill" the experts are predicting actually shows up.
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To prepare for the slight cooldown and potential showers next week, make sure to check your irrigation timers; with these warmer temperatures, your desert plants might need a quick extra drink, but you'll want to turn them off if that rain on the 22nd actually pans out.