You're sitting on the couch, beverage in hand, and someone hands you a poster board with a 10x10 grid. It looks like a math project gone wrong. But it’s not. It’s the super bowl squares pool, the great equalizer of sports betting where your deep knowledge of Patrick Mahomes’ completion percentage means absolutely nothing compared to a random draw of numbers.
Most people treat this like a total crapshoot. They buy their squares, wait for the numbers to be drawn, and pray they don’t end up with a 2 and a 5. But if you've ever wondered why the same people seem to win these things or why some squares feel like a death sentence, you're tapping into the weird, numbers-heavy reality of NFL scoring. It’s a game of pure luck at the start, but understanding the math changes how you look at that poster board once the numbers are inked in.
Why a Super Bowl Squares Pool Works the Way It Does
The beauty of it is simplicity. You have 100 squares. People buy them for five bucks, twenty bucks, or sometimes way more. Once the grid is full, someone pulls numbers 0 through 9 out of a hat for the top row (usually the AFC team) and the side row (NFC). Your square represents the last digit of each team's score. If the score is 17-10 at the end of the first quarter, and you have the 7 for the leading team and 0 for the trailer, you win.
It sounds fair. It isn't.
Football scores aren't random. Because touchdowns are six points (plus the extra point) and field goals are three, certain numbers appear constantly. Others are basically ghosts. If you end up with 2, 5, or 8, you're basically donating your money to the pot. It’s harsh, but true. Stats from decades of NFL games show that 0, 3, and 7 are the holy trinity of squares. Think about it. Scores like 7-0, 10-7, 14-7, 14-10, 20-17—they all land on those prime numbers.
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The Brutal Reality of the Numbers
Let's talk about the "Bad Numbers." Honestly, getting a 2 is the worst. How do you get a 2 in football? Two safeties? A missed extra point followed by a field goal and... it's a mess. Historically, the number 2 appears in a Super Bowl score less than 4% of the time. Contrast that with 0 or 7, which show up in winning combinations nearly 20% of the time each.
If you are playing in a pool where you get to pick your numbers (which is rare but happens in some "skill" versions), you should sell your soul for the 7-0 or 7-3 intersection. But in the standard "draw from a hat" style, your only job is to manage your expectations once the numbers are drawn.
What to Look for After the Drawing
Once those axes are filled out, look at your coordinates. If you have the "4" for one team, you aren't in a great spot unless that team misses an extra point or kicks a lot of field goals. However, the "4" has actually become more common recently. Why? Because NFL coaches are getting aggressive. They go for two-point conversions way more than they did in the 90s. This shifts the traditional "7-point" scoring cycle and makes "ugly" numbers like 4, 1, and 8 slightly more viable than they used to be, though they're still not great.
Payout Structures That Actually Make Sense
Most office pools pay out at the end of each quarter. Usually, it's 25% of the pot for the first three quarters and a slightly larger chunk for the final score. But here is a pro tip: suggest a "Final Score" payout instead of a "Fourth Quarter" payout. If the game goes into overtime, the fourth quarter score doesn't matter; the final score does.
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I’ve seen friendships end over whether the "Fourth Quarter" winner is the person who held the lead at the end of regulation or the person who won the game after overtime. Clarify this before the kickoff.
Some "high-stakes" pools use a "Wagers" style where the numbers change every quarter. This is absolute chaos, but it keeps everyone engaged. If you have bad numbers in the first quarter, you might get a miracle in the second. It levels the playing field significantly for the person who drew the 2-5 combo.
The Strategy of Buying Multiple Squares
If you're buying more than one square, don't buy them right next to each other. It’s a common mistake. People like the look of a little block of four squares. But if you’re in a random draw pool, it doesn’t matter where they are physically on the board. If you're in a pool where you pick your spots before numbers are assigned, spreading them out is a psychological trick that doesn't actually help the math, but it makes the game more fun to track across the grid.
The real strategy? Play in pools with people who don't understand the "final digit" rule. Sometimes people think they need the total score to equal their square. They don't. You just need the last digit.
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Myths About the Grid
One big myth is that "anything can happen." While technically true, the "scorable" combinations in football are surprisingly rigid. Since the 1970 merger, the most common end-of-quarter scores involve 0, 3, and 7 over 60% of the time.
Another myth is that the "AFC" or "NFC" side matters. It doesn't. What matters is the specific team's offensive style. If you’re watching a team like the Chiefs who score in bunches of 7, your 7-square is gold. If you’re watching a team with a struggling offense that relies on field goals, the 3 and 6 become much more valuable.
Setting Up Your Own Pool
If you're the one running the super bowl squares pool, don't overcomplicate it. Use a piece of poster board and a ruler. Or use an online generator, but honestly, the physical board at a party is half the fun.
Make sure you collect the money before the game starts. There is nothing worse than chasing down "Steve from Accounting" for twenty bucks on Monday morning after he lost.
- Draw the 10x10 grid.
- Leave the top and left margins blank for the numbers.
- Let everyone pick their squares by writing their name in the boxes.
- Once full, use a deck of cards (Ace through 10, where 10 is 0) to randomly assign numbers to the top row, then the side row.
- Take a photo of the finished board and text it to every participant. This prevents "adjustments" later.
Actionable Steps for Game Day
If you want to take this seriously—or as seriously as a party game allows—follow these steps:
- Check the Over/Under: If the Vegas total is high (like 50+ points), the numbers 0, 7, and 3 are slightly less dominant because the scores move so fast, they often bypass the "traditional" landing spots.
- Watch the Kickers: In the modern NFL, kickers are missing more extra points because the distance was moved back years ago. This makes the "6" and "8" squares significantly more live than they were in the 2000s.
- The "Safety" Insurance: If you have a "2" or a "5," you are basically rooting for a safety or a very specific combination of missed kicks and field goals. Embrace the chaos. It's your only path to victory.
- The Inverse Rule: If you end up with the worst numbers on the board, try to hedge your bet with a small "prop bet" on a different platform. It softens the blow of having the 5-5 square.
The reality of a squares pool is that it's a social lubricant. It gives someone who doesn't care about football a reason to scream at the TV when a meaningless field goal is kicked in the waning seconds of the third quarter. Just remember: it’s all fun and games until someone wins $500 on a 2-2 score because of a blocked extra point return.