The playoffs are a meat grinder. Honestly, if you looked at the Super Bowl odds 2025 back in August, you'd probably be staring at a ticket for a team that’s currently planning a golf trip.
We are officially in the Divisional Round of the 2025-26 postseason, and the betting board looks like a Jackson Pollock painting—chaotic, colorful, and making very little sense to anyone who bet on the "safe" favorites. The Philadelphia Eagles, who entered the year as the reigning champs and the +600 preseason darlings, are gone. Poof. Booted by a San Francisco 49ers team that barely scraped into the dance as a wild card.
Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are the kings of the mountain at +270. They’ve got the #1 seed, a first-round bye, and a defense that basically functions as a brick wall. But if you think this is a runaway, you haven't been watching.
The Board is Bleeding Green: Current Favorites
Betting on the NFL in January is mostly just an exercise in managing your own heart rate.
As of January 16, 2026, the market has coalesced around a few heavy hitters. It's not just about who has the best quarterback anymore; it’s about who is actually healthy enough to put on a helmet.
- Seattle Seahawks (+270): Mike Macdonald has turned this unit into a nightmare. They clinched the top seed by bullying the Niners in Week 18, and the money is pouring in because they don't have to leave Lumen Field until February.
- Los Angeles Rams (+300): Matthew Stafford is 37 years old and playing like he’s 22. They just survived a 34-31 shootout against Carolina. Their odds shortened significantly because, let's be real, nobody wants to bet against Sean McVay in a high-stakes game.
- Buffalo Bills (+600): The AFC favorite. Finally. After years of heartbreak, Josh Allen looks like he’s finally tired of losing. They beat Jacksonville in the Wild Card and now head to Denver.
- New England Patriots (+600): Mike Vrabel has done the impossible. Drake Maye is a legitimate star, and that defense just held the Chargers to 3 points.
It's wild to see the Patriots and Broncos back at the top of the Super Bowl odds 2025 list. It feels like 2015 all over again, except Patrick Mahomes is sitting at home for the first time in his career. The "Mahomes Era" didn't end, but it's certainly taking a nap this winter.
The Denver Disconnect
Denver is the #1 seed in the AFC. They went 14-3. Bo Nix has been incredibly efficient. Yet, they are sitting at +700 at many books, behind the Bills and Patriots.
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Why? Because the market doesn't trust them.
The Broncos haven't played a postseason game with this core yet. Oddsmakers are terrified of Josh Allen going into Mile High and doing Josh Allen things. It’s a classic case of "regular season vs. playoff pedigree." If you’re looking for value, the Broncos at +700 as a #1 seed is kind of insane, but the betting public is staying away.
Why the Eagles and Chiefs Fell Off the Map
If you’re wondering what happened to the "locks," welcome to the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles were the favorites to repeat. Then the Wild Card round happened. They hosted San Francisco and lost 23-19. Jauan Jennings—a guy who was a literal quarterback in high school—threw a touchdown pass on a double reverse. You can't account for that in a spreadsheet.
And the Chiefs? They didn't even make the playoffs.
It’s the first time since 2014 that Kansas City isn't in the mix. The AFC West was a gauntlet this year, and the Broncos simply took their lunch money. When you lose the "Mahomes Factor," the Super Bowl odds 2025 landscape opens up like a canyon.
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The Frigid Chicago Factor
Keep an eye on the Chicago Bears. They are currently +1400.
They were trailing the Packers 21-3 in the Wild Card round. Everyone gave up on them. Then they scored 25 points in the fourth quarter. Now, they get to host the Rams in a game where the temperature is projected to be 7 degrees Fahrenheit.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams are used to the sun or a nice climate-controlled dome. They are going into a frozen Soldier Field. This is where the "implied probability" of the odds starts to break down. Is a California team really only a slight favorite in a sub-zero wind chill? Probably not.
Betting the "Exact Result" Prop
If you’re feeling spicy, the "Exact Result" markets are where the real degenerate energy lives.
- Bills to beat Seahawks (+700): This is the chalk move. It assumes the two best teams on paper actually make it.
- Rams to beat Bills (+900): A rematch of the old-school high-flying offenses.
- Bears to beat Broncos (+2200): The "Chaos Theory" bet. If you think the young QBs in the AFC crumble and the Chicago defense stays hot in the cold, this is the lottery ticket.
Real Talk on the Underdogs
The San Francisco 49ers are at +2000. They are the lowest-seeded team left.
But they just beat the defending champs on the road. They have Christian McCaffrey. They have a defense that knows the Seahawks better than anyone. Betting against Kyle Shanahan at 20-to-1 feels like a trap, even if they have to win three straight road games to get the ring.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Super Bowl Odds
People think "favorites" mean "most likely to win."
In reality, odds are a reflection of where the money is going. If a million people in Seattle bet on the Seahawks, the bookies drop the odds to +270 to protect themselves. It doesn't mean the Seahawks got better; it means the sportsbook is scared.
When you look at the Super Bowl odds 2025, look for the team everyone is ignoring. Right now, that’s the Houston Texans (+850). C.J. Stroud just dismantled the Steelers 30-6. They are playing with house money and zero pressure. That’s a dangerous combination in January.
Actionable Steps for the Divisional Round
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game, don't just blindly follow the +270 favorite.
- Check the Weather: The Rams at Bears game is going to be a frozen mess. Look at the "Under" or defensive props rather than the Super Bowl winner.
- Fade the Public: Everyone is on the Bills right now. That usually means the value is on their opponent.
- Wait for the Live Line: If the Seahawks start slow against the 49ers, their Super Bowl odds will jump from +270 to +500 mid-game. That’s when you strike.
- Injuries Matter: The 49ers are playing without George Kittle. That's a massive blow to their blocking and red-zone efficiency. Always check the Friday injury report before locking in a futures bet.
The path to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium is basically a demolition derby at this point. The Seahawks are the favorites today, but in the NFL, today’s favorite is usually tomorrow’s cautionary tale.
Track the movement between the Saturday and Sunday games. If a favorite like Denver falls on Saturday, the AFC odds for the Patriots and Texans will tighten instantly. Getting your bets in before the weekend kicks off is the only way to beat the closing line value.