The NFL playoffs are basically a high-stakes car crash where everyone is trying to predict who walks away without a scratch. Right now, if you’re looking at the super bowl favorites odds, the board looks like a neon-lit fever dream. It’s January 2026. Levi’s Stadium is getting its grass manicured for Super Bowl 60, and the betting markets are currently obsessed with one team from the Pacific Northwest that nobody saw coming six months ago.
The Seattle Seahawks.
They aren't just winning; they're suffocating people. Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a brick wall, and Sam Darnold—yes, the same Sam Darnold who was once "seeing ghosts"—is playing like a man who found the Fountain of Youth in a Starbucks latte. But is +270 actually a good price? Honestly, probably not. Not when you realize the path they have to take through a gritty NFC.
The Current State of the Super Bowl Favorites Odds
The oddsmakers at DraftKings and FanDuel aren't exactly known for their generosity, but the current spreads for the Divisional Round have forced some massive movement. Seattle sits at the top, hovering around +270 to +290. They clinched the No. 1 seed by bullying the 49ers in the regular-season finale, but the gap between them and the rest of the pack is closing fast.
Behind them, the Los Angeles Rams are sitting pretty at +320. Matthew Stafford is 37 years old and looks like he’s playing on bionic knees. Puka Nacua is breaking records every time he touches the turf. The Rams just narrowly escaped a wild-card scare against the Panthers, winning 34-31, which actually caused their odds to drift slightly from +310. It’s a classic overreaction. One close game and the public starts sweating.
Then you have the AFC mess.
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New England and Buffalo are basically in a cage match for the title of "AFC's Best Hope." The Patriots are sitting at +550 largely because Drake Maye has stopped playing like a rookie and started playing like a ten-year vet. They just choked the life out of the Chargers in a 16-3 win. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills moved from +1000 all the way to +650 after they went into Jacksonville and basically told the Jaguars to go home.
Why the Seahawks Are (Maybe) Overvalued
Look, I get it. The Seahawks are 13-4. They have the home-field advantage. But +270 in the Divisional Round is a trap. You’ve basically got a 26% implied probability that they win it all. That sounds high until you remember they have to face a San Francisco team that just eliminated the defending champion Eagles.
The 49ers are the ultimate "don't look at the record" team right now. They’re sitting at +2000. That’s insane value. Sure, George Kittle just tore his Achilles—which is a brutal blow—but Brock Purdy hasn't lost a game since returning from his toe injury. They’re 7.5-point underdogs heading into Seattle this weekend. If they pull that upset? Those +2000 odds are going to vanish faster than a hot dog at a tailgate.
The Drake Maye Factor in New England
If you told a Patriots fan two years ago that Mike Vrabel would be leading them into the Divisional Round with +550 odds to win it all, they’d have asked what you were smoking. But here we are.
The defense is elite.
The offense is efficient.
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Maye is the real deal. He’s not throwing for 400 yards a game, but he isn't turning the ball over. In the playoffs, that’s the whole ballgame. The betting markets love "safe" teams, and right now, the Patriots are the safest bet in the AFC. They have a date with the winner of the Houston-Pittsburgh game, and honestly, they should be favored to reach the AFC Championship.
Sleepers and Longshots: Is Chicago for Real?
The Chicago Bears are the chaos agents of the 2026 postseason. They were down 21-3 at halftime against Green Bay in the Wild Card round. Their live odds hit +8000. Then Caleb Williams decided to go nuclear, scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-27.
Now? They’re at +1600.
It’s a "vibe" team. If you’re betting on the Bears, you aren't betting on statistics or defensive efficiency. You’re betting on a rookie quarterback with a "clutch" gene that defies logic. They’re 3.5-point home underdogs against the Rams this weekend. If Caleb wins that one, the hype train is going to be moving too fast to jump on.
The AFC West Power Vacuum
Don't sleep on Denver at +700. Bo Nix has been incredibly solid at home, and the Broncos secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The problem is they’re actually +105 home underdogs against Buffalo this weekend. Think about that. The No. 1 seed is an underdog at home in the second round.
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That tells you everything you need to know about how the public feels about Josh Allen. Allen is currently the betting favorite for Super Bowl MVP at +650, even though his team has worse championship odds than Seattle or LA. People trust the player, not necessarily the roster.
Actionable Betting Insights for the Divisional Round
If you’re looking to actually put money down on the super bowl favorites odds before kickoff this weekend, stop looking at the top of the board. The value has moved.
- The "Buy the Dip" Play: The 49ers at +2000. It's a gamble on Kyle Shanahan's brain and Brock Purdy's luck, but the payout is massive for a team with this much playoff experience.
- The "Fade the Hype" Play: Seattle at +270. There is too much volatility in the NFC to lock in a price that short. If they struggle early against SF, you can get a better live price anyway.
- The MVP Hedge: If you think Buffalo wins it all, grab Josh Allen for MVP at +650 now. If Buffalo makes the Super Bowl, that number will drop to +150 or lower.
The reality of the 2026 playoffs is that there is no "juggernaut." The Chiefs are out. The Eagles are out. The Ravens didn't even make the cut. We are looking at a wide-open field where the "favorites" are really just the teams that haven't tripped over their own feet yet.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for the Rams' offensive line and the 49ers' receiving corps. Those details are going to move these lines more than any "expert" analysis will. Betting on the NFL is mostly about timing, and right now, the clock is ticking on the last few pieces of value left on the board.
Next Steps for Your Strategy:
- Check the final injury status of Brock Purdy’s toe and the Rams’ secondary depth before Saturday's kickoff.
- Compare the "Super Bowl Winner" odds against "To Win Conference" odds; sometimes the NFC/AFC title payout offers better localized value if you're unsure about the final matchup.
- Monitor the live betting lines during the first quarter of the Bears-Rams game, as Chicago has shown a tendency to start slow before Caleb Williams takes over.