Look, the Super Bowl is basically the ultimate magnet for bad advice. Every year, you’ve got your uncle, your barber, and that one guy at the office who "just has a feeling" all chiming in on who’s going to lift the Lombardi Trophy. But honestly? If you’re looking at super bowl expert picks for Super Bowl 60, you need to ignore the noise and look at the actual math and momentum.
We are sitting in the middle of January 2026. The Divisional Round is looming. The landscape has shifted so much that the preseason favorites feel like a distant memory. Remember when the Philadelphia Eagles were the "sure thing" back in the summer? They just got bounced in the Wild Card round by a San Francisco 49ers team that's playing on pure spite at this point.
Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are the betting favorites, sitting at roughly +270 to +300 depending on where you look. They’ve got the No. 1 seed and a bye, which is a massive deal. But being the favorite is often a trap. Just ask the 2024-25 Chiefs who entered LIX as favorites and watched the Eagles walk away with the ring.
The Seahawks Trap and the Sam Darnold Factor
Is it weird to see Sam Darnold at the helm of a Super Bowl favorite? Yeah, it is.
But the reality is that Mike Macdonald has built a defensive monster in Seattle. They are the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing like he's glitching the matrix. The Seahawks finished 14-3 for a reason. They aren't just winning; they're suffocating teams.
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Expert picks often lean toward the "safest" path, which is Seattle playing at home. The "12s" are no joke, and that environment is a nightmare for visiting quarterbacks. But there is a massive "but" here. The Los Angeles Rams (+320) are the shark in the water. They've already beaten Seattle once this year.
Matthew Stafford is still there. He’s the veteran who knows how to navigate these waters. While everyone is hyping up the Seahawks’ defense, the Rams have this weird, balanced efficiency that doesn't care about crowd noise. A lot of analysts, including guys like Steven Ruiz from The Ringer, are actually pivoting to the Rams because they trust Stafford more than Darnold when the lights get blindingly bright in February.
Why the AFC is a Total Coin Flip
The AFC side of the bracket is basically a bar fight.
- Denver Broncos (+750): They have the No. 1 seed, but the markets are oddly cold on them. Bo Nix has been "fine," but "fine" doesn't usually beat Josh Allen in late January.
- New England Patriots (+600): Drake Maye is the real deal. He’s playing with a level of poise that’s frankly terrifying for a 23-year-old.
- Buffalo Bills (+650): This is the Josh Allen show. Always has been.
The "experts" are currently obsessed with the Patriots-Texans matchup. New England’s defense under Mike Vrabel just put on a clinic against the Chargers, but C.J. Stroud and the Texans (+950) are on a 10-game heater. Honestly, fading a 10-game win streak feels like a mistake, yet the odds suggest the Texans are still the fourth-best team left in the AFC.
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If you're looking for value, the Bills at +650 are the classic "Superman" pick. Bill Barnwell and others have highlighted that while the Bills' roster is flawed, Josh Allen is the only quarterback left who can single-handedly win a game when the play-calling breaks down. That matters in the Super Bowl.
The "Home Game" Illusion for San Francisco
Super Bowl 60 is at Levi’s Stadium. Naturally, everyone wants to pick the 49ers (+2000) to win it on their own turf.
It's a great story. It's also a statistical nightmare.
The 49ers had to go through the Eagles just to stay alive, and now they have to travel to Seattle. Their path is the hardest in the league. While the "home field advantage" for the actual Super Bowl is a nice thought, they have to get there first. Most model simulations, like the ones from SportsLine, give the 49ers less than a 35% chance of winning in Seattle.
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Injuries are the other silent killer here. George Kittle is out. Trent Williams is playing on what seems to be one leg and a lot of tape. When you're looking at super bowl expert picks, look at the injury report before the oddsboard. A +2000 ticket looks juicy until you realize the offensive line is a sieve.
Actionable Insights for Your Picks
Stop betting on the team you want to win. The Super Bowl is a business transaction.
- Watch the Seahawks vs. Rams potential matchup. If the Rams win their next game, they are the most dangerous team in the NFC. Their odds will plummet, so if you like them, the time is now.
- Don't sleep on Drake Maye. The Patriots have the coaching and the defense to pull a 2001-style upset run.
- The Houston Defense is legitimate. If you're looking for a longshot that can actually ruin a favorite's day, it's the Texans. They gave up six points to the Steelers. Six.
The smart money right now is split. You've got the statistical models favoring the Seahawks' path, but the "eye test" experts are all-in on the Rams or the Bills. If I'm forced to pick one value play today? It’s the Bills. Josh Allen is playing like a man who knows his window is closing, and in a year where the AFC lacks a dominant juggernaut like the old Chiefs, the path is wide open.
Go check the latest line movements on FanDuel or DraftKings before the Saturday games kick off. Lines move fast in the Divisional Round, and by Sunday night, the +650 you see for Buffalo could easily be +400.