If you're looking at the Sturgis South Dakota weather 10 day forecast, you’ve probably noticed something weird. One minute it's mid-30s and sunny, and the next, you're looking at a low of 4 degrees. Honestly, that’s just life in the Black Hills. People from the coast or the South usually think winter here is just a solid block of ice until April, but it’s way more moody than that.
Right now, as of Sunday, January 18, 2026, Sturgis is sitting at a crisp 31°F. It feels like 16°F, though, because we’ve got some serious northwest wind kicking up at 26 mph. It's that classic "light showers of snow" kind of day. Not a blizzard, just enough to be annoying if you're trying to keep the driveway clear.
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The 10-Day Reality Check
Basically, the next week and a half is going to be a rollercoaster. You've got to dress in layers or you're going to have a bad time.
Today, we’re looking at a high of 36°F and a low of 12°F. It’s mostly cloudy during the day, but that northwest wind is gusting up to 30 mph. If you’re heading out, keep an eye on Monday, too. It’s staying around 31°F for the high, but it’ll be cloudier.
Tuesday, January 20th, things get a bit more interesting. We’re expecting light snow with a 35% chance of precipitation. The high hits 36°F again, but the low is a relatively "balmy" 24°F. Don't get used to it. By Wednesday, the temperature starts its slow slide down. We’re looking at a high of only 27°F.
Thursday brings more snow. It’s a 25% chance, but the real kicker is the overnight low of 7°F. That’s when the "real" winter starts showing its teeth. Friday, January 23rd, is even colder. High of 18°F. Low of 7°F. You’ll want the heavy parka for that one.
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Saturday, January 24th, stays chilly with a high of 26°F and a low of 5°F. But Sunday? Sunday, January 25th, is the day everyone's going to be talking about. The high is only 9°F. The low is 4°F. That is proper "stay inside and drink coffee" weather.
Things start to rebound slightly toward the end of the forecast. Monday, January 26th, hits 22°F. Tuesday, January 27th, actually jumps up to 41°F—which is a massive swing from the single digits just two days prior. We finish out the 10-day stretch on Wednesday, January 28th, with a sunny high of 29°F and a low of 20°F.
Why Sturgis Weather is So Weird
You’ve probably heard of Chinook winds. They are the reason why Sturgis can feel like the Arctic on Sunday and a mild spring day by Tuesday. These "snow eaters" come off the mountains and can jump the temperature 30 degrees in an hour. It’s wild.
According to the National Weather Service, January is historically one of the coldest months here, but these inversions happen all the time. While the average high is around 36°F, it’s the wind that usually ruins your day. Humidity is sitting around 61% right now, which is pretty standard for a snowy South Dakota afternoon.
If you're planning on being outdoors, especially near the northern Black Hills, remember that the elevation—about 3,429 feet—changes the game. Snow sticks longer here than it does down in Rapid City.
Practical Steps for the Next 10 Days
If you're living here or just passing through, here is how to handle this specific forecast.
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First, check your tire pressure. These drops from 41°F down to 4°F will make your "low pressure" light pop on almost instantly. It’s just physics. Second, keep a bag of sand or salt in the back of your truck. With the light snow expected on Tuesday and Thursday, the side roads in Sturgis tend to get that "black ice" sheen that’s hard to see until you're sliding.
Keep a heavy coat, gloves, and a real hat in the car. Not just a baseball cap. A 26 mph wind at 9°F will give you frostbite faster than you think. Honestly, just stay flexible. The Sturgis South Dakota weather 10 day forecast is a suggestion, not a promise.
Check your local road conditions via the SD511 app before heading toward Deadwood or Spearfish, as the canyons can hold onto snow and ice much longer than the main drag in Sturgis. Make sure your outdoor pets have heated water bowls, especially for that Sunday night when it hits 4°F.