Honestly, looking at the stock price of nike right now feels a bit like watching a legendary athlete try to make a comeback after a devastating ACL tear. You want to cheer for them because, well, they're Nike. But the scoreboard isn't looking great. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $64, a far cry from the triple-digit glory days investors once took for granted.
It’s been a rough ride. Over the last three years, the company has basically watched half its market value evaporate.
If you’re holding NKE shares or thinking about jumping in, you've probably noticed the vibe is... tense. On one hand, you have the "buy the dip" crowd pointing at the brand's undeniable cultural power. On the other, you have analysts at places like Daiwa and Argus slashing price targets faster than a clearance rack at an outlet mall.
What’s Actually Happening with the Numbers?
Nike’s most recent quarterly check-up (Q2 of fiscal 2026, which ended in late 2025) was a classic "good news, bad news" sandwich.
The "good": They actually beat what Wall Street expected for both revenue and earnings. They pulled in $12.4 billion in revenue.
The "bad": Profitability is getting squeezed like a foot in a size-too-small sneaker. Net income plummeted by about 32%.
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Why the drop? A big part of it is the gross margin, which fell to 40.6%. That's a 300-basis-point dip that hurts. Management is blaming a "perfect storm" of higher tariffs in North America and the need to aggressively discount "lifestyle" shoes—think the Air Force 1 and Dunks—to clear out old inventory. Basically, they made too many of the same shoes, people got bored, and now Nike has to practically give them away to make room for the new stuff.
The Elliott Hill Era: "Middle Innings" or a Long Game?
Everyone was hyped when Elliott Hill came out of retirement to take the CEO seat. He's a Nike lifer, the guy who knows the "Swoosh" DNA. He’s been calling this current phase the "middle innings" of a comeback.
But here’s the thing: baseball games can go into extra innings, and fans (investors) are getting tired of sitting in the stands. Hill’s strategy, which he calls the "Sport Offense," is about getting back to what made Nike great—real innovation for real athletes. They're seeing some wins there; running footwear sales actually jumped over 20% recently.
But then you look at China.
Greater China used to be Nike’s ATM. Not anymore. Revenue there just tanked by 17% in the last quarter. Local brands like Anta and Li-Ning are eating Nike’s lunch, and the Chinese consumer is being way more selective.
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The Hoka and On Running Threat
It’s not just the big rivals like Adidas anymore. It’s the "dad shoes" that actually perform. Brands like Hoka and On Running have moved from niche marathon gear to everyday streetwear.
While Nike was busy trying to perfect its "Direct-to-Consumer" (DTC) strategy and cutting ties with local shoe stores, these smaller brands moved in and took that shelf space. Nike is now desperately trying to win back those retail partners—basically admitting that maybe they can't do everything through their own website and apps.
Is the Dividend Enough to Save the Stock Price of Nike?
If there’s one thing Nike has kept consistent, it’s the dividend. They’ve raised it for 24 years straight. Currently, it’s at $0.41 per share, giving it a yield of around 2.5%.
For a lot of investors, that’s the only reason to stay in the game. It’s a "pay me to wait" situation. Even Tim Cook (who sits on Nike’s board) recently doubled his stake in the company, which is a pretty loud vote of confidence from a guy who knows a thing or two about premium brands.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Recovery
People keep waiting for a "V-shaped" recovery where the stock price of nike just shoots back to $150.
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That’s probably not happening.
The recovery is looking "lumpy." North America is showing signs of life (up 9% in revenue), but the digital side of the business—the part that was supposed to be the future—saw sales drop by 14%. The company is literally shrinking its "classics" business to stop the bleeding. They’re choosing to sell fewer shoes to keep the brand feeling "premium" again.
That takes time. And in the stock market, time is the one thing nobody wants to give.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at Nike right now, don't just stare at the ticker symbol. Here is how to actually read the room:
- Watch the Margin, Not Just the Sales: Until that gross margin crawls back toward 44-45%, the stock will likely stay under pressure. Tariffs are a real "X-factor" here that management can't fully control.
- The China Floor: Look for stabilization in Greater China. If revenue continues to drop by double digits there, the "comeback" is stalled, no matter how many shoes they sell in Ohio.
- Wholesale Growth is the New Direct: Management has pivoted. Watch how quickly they can get back into stores like Foot Locker and Dick’s Sporting Goods. That’s where the volume is.
- Innovation Cycle: Keep an eye on the "running" category. If Nike can’t win back the serious runners from Hoka and Brooks, the brand loses its "cool" factor with the casual crowd too.
The stock price of nike is currently a bet on whether a 50-year-old giant can learn to dance like a startup again. It’s a cheap stock compared to its history, trading at about 37 times earnings, but "cheap" can always get "cheaper" if the turnaround loses steam.
Next Step: You should set a price alert for $60. If it breaks below that "floor" established in late 2025, it might signal that the market has lost faith in the 2026 recovery timeline entirely. On the flip side, any sign of the gross margin stabilizing above 42% in the next earnings report could be the signal that the worst is finally over.