If you’ve spent any time looking at the stock price of microstrategy lately, you know it feels less like a software company and more like a high-stakes levered bet on the future of money. Honestly, it’s wild. One day you’re up 8% because Michael Saylor tweeted a laser-eye meme, and the next, you’re staring at a double-digit drawdown because the crypto markets caught a cold.
The volatility is the point.
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As of mid-January 2026, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is trading around the $172 mark. It’s been a bumpy ride getting here. After peaking near $450 in mid-2025 during a massive Bitcoin surge, the stock took a heavy hit in the final quarter of last year. Investors have been grappling with a "crypto winter lite" that saw Bitcoin prices wobble around $90,000, dragging MSTR down with it.
Why the Stock Price of MicroStrategy Decouples from Reality
Most people look at MSTR and try to value it like a normal tech firm. They look at the enterprise analytics software—which, to be fair, is still a real business bringing in roughly $120 million a quarter—and they try to run a discounted cash flow analysis.
That is a mistake.
MicroStrategy is now a "Bitcoin Development Company." It’s a proxy. It’s a wrapper.
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Basically, the company uses its balance sheet as a giant vacuum for BTC. As of January 12, 2026, they just added another 13,627 Bitcoin to their stash, bringing their total holdings to a staggering 687,410 BTC. When you realize their total stack is worth over $60 billion at current prices, the software business starts to look like a rounding error.
The MSCI Drama and Institutional Fear
In late 2025, a lot of the downward pressure on the stock price of microstrategy came from a very specific, boring technical reason: index inclusion. There was a huge fear that MSCI would exclude "Digital Asset Treasury Companies" (DATCOs) from its indexes.
If that had happened, every passive fund on the planet would have been forced to dump MSTR simultaneously.
That didn't happen. In early January 2026, MSCI announced they were postponing any exclusions. The relief was immediate. The stock jumped about 5% almost instantly as the "forced selling" overhang vanished. But the debate isn't over; MSCI signaled they’ll keep looking at how to classify these non-operating companies later this year.
The Math Behind the Discount
Interestingly, right now MSTR is trading at what some analysts call a "discount to NAV" (Net Asset Value).
Think about that.
Historically, investors paid a huge premium—sometimes 50% to 100%—to own MSTR instead of just buying Bitcoin directly. Why? Because Saylor uses "intelligent leverage." He issues low-interest convertible debt and uses the proceeds to buy an asset that (historically) appreciates much faster than the interest rate. It’s a carry trade.
But as of January 2026, the market cap is hovering around $49 billion while the Bitcoin on the books is worth closer to $62 billion.
You’re basically getting the Bitcoin at a 20% discount and the software business for free.
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Why the discount? Fear. Some investors are terrified of the "refinancing wall." They see the $8.2 billion in total debt and wonder what happens if Bitcoin drops to $40,000 and the bonds come due. It’s a valid concern, though the company currently has about $2.25 billion in U.S. dollar reserves to handle dividends and debt obligations in the short term.
What to Watch for in the Q4 Earnings Call
The upcoming February 5, 2026, earnings call is going to be a circus. Analysts are expecting earnings of roughly $46.02 per share, which sounds insane until you remember that new accounting rules require the company to mark its Bitcoin to market value.
- The 42/42 Plan: Watch for updates on their goal to raise $42 billion in equity and $42 billion in debt over three years. If they stay on track, their BTC stack could hit 1 million coins sooner than people think.
- Software Pivot: Subscription services are actually up 65% year-over-year. It’s not the main driver, but it keeps the lights on and the bankers happy.
- S&P 500 Inclusion: This is the "Holy Grail." If MSTR ever makes it into the S&P 500, the stock price will likely see a massive, permanent structural shift upward.
Kinda crazy to think that a firm from Tysons Corner, Virginia, became the world's first Bitcoin Treasury Company, but here we are.
If you're tracking the stock price of microstrategy, you aren't just watching a ticker; you're watching a real-time experiment in corporate finance. It’s high-beta, it’s loud, and it’s definitely not for the faint of heart.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Monitor the mNAV: Calculate the value of 687,410 BTC against the current market cap. If the market cap is significantly lower than the Bitcoin value, it historically represents a "buy the dip" opportunity for those bullish on the asset.
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury: Since MSTR relies on issuing debt to buy Bitcoin, rising interest rates can make their "infinite money glitch" more expensive to execute.
- Check the SEC Filings: Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have been active. Recent filings show mixed activity, with some directors buying at the $155 level while others trimmed positions near $186.
The next major catalyst is the February 2026 MSCI review. If they confirm long-term inclusion, the current discount to NAV might evaporate overnight. Keep your eyes on the $90,000 Bitcoin support level; if that holds, the path to $200 for MSTR looks a lot clearer.