Honestly, if you’re looking at the stock price of meta today and feeling a bit of whiplash, you aren't alone. It’s currently hovering around $626.88 (down about 2.3% today), but that single number is a pretty terrible way to judge what’s actually happening in Menlo Park right now.
The market is acting like a nervous parent.
One minute, everyone is cheering because Instagram and Facebook are printing money like a broken ATM—thanks to AI ad targeting—and the next, they’re panicking because Mark Zuckerberg just announced he’s spending even more billions on "superintelligence" and data centers. It's a weird, high-stakes tug-of-war.
Why the Market is Throwing a Fit Right Now
We’re in a strange spot in early 2026. Meta’s stock is up about 11-13% over the last year, which sounds fine, right? Well, not when you realize the S&P 500 did 17% in that same window. Meta is actually lagging behind the pack.
The big drop-off started late last year after the Q3 earnings call. It wasn’t that they lost money—revenue actually jumped 26% to over $51 billion. The "problem" was the future. Zuckerberg basically told investors that the $70 billion they spent on hardware and AI in 2025 was just the warm-up. He expects 2026 capital expenditures to be "notably larger."
We're talking about a potential $100 billion+ spend this year.
👉 See also: Wall Street Lays an Egg: The Truth About the Most Famous Headline in History
That is an insane amount of money. To put that in perspective, they are essentially taking almost every dollar they make from operations and burying it in the ground—in the form of massive data centers and Nvidia chips. Some analysts at TD Cowen are even projecting $125 billion in spending. Investors see those numbers and their stomachs drop. They worry Meta is repeating the "Metaverse" mistake where they spent billions on a ghost town.
The Reality Labs "Diet"
But here’s the twist. While they are spending on AI, they are getting ruthless elsewhere.
Just this week, news broke that Meta is cutting about 10% of the staff at Reality Labs. That’s roughly 1,500 people. It’s a huge signal. It tells us that the "Year of Efficiency" wasn't just a one-time thing in 2023. They are actively gutting the parts of the Metaverse dream that aren't working—like certain VR headset projects—to fund "AI wearables."
The Wearable Pivot
Basically, they want your next pair of glasses to be smart.
- Ray-Ban Meta glasses: Sales tripled in the first half of 2025.
- Production hike: They are talking to EssilorLuxottica about ramping up to 20 million units by the end of this year.
- The goal: Turning your glasses into your primary AI interface so you don't even have to look at your phone.
If this works, the stock price of meta could look cheap at these levels. If it doesn't, it’s a very expensive set of sunglasses.
✨ Don't miss: 121 GBP to USD: Why Your Bank Is Probably Ripping You Off
Is the Stock Actually "Cheap"?
Looking at the valuation, Meta’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is sitting around 28.8.
That’s actually lower than many of its "Magnificent Seven" peers like Amazon or Microsoft. It’s almost like the market is pricing in a "Zuck Tax"—a discount because people are afraid he’ll spend all the profits on futuristic experiments.
The Bull Case (Why $800+ is on the table)
Bank of America and TD Cowen are still banging the drum with price targets between $810 and $820. Some wilder estimates from Rosenblatt even see it hitting $1,117. Why? Because the core business is an absolute beast.
- Ad Revenue: 97% of Meta’s revenue still comes from ads.
- AI Efficiency: Zuckerberg noted that AI-powered ad tools have a run rate of over $60 billion.
- Engagement: People are spending 5% more time on Facebook and 30% more time watching video on Instagram than they were a year ago.
When you have nearly 4 billion people using your apps, even a tiny increase in "time spent" translates to billions in extra revenue.
The Nuclear Option (Literally)
In a move that sounds like it’s out of a sci-fi novel, Meta just signed deals with three nuclear energy companies: Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo. They need 6.6 gigawatts of power for their AI.
🔗 Read more: Yangshan Deep Water Port: The Engineering Gamble That Keeps Global Shipping From Collapsing
They aren't just building software; they are building a power grid.
This is the "nuance" the headlines often miss. Meta is transforming from a social media company into a physical infrastructure company. That transition is messy. It’s expensive. And it makes the stock price of meta volatile as hell.
Actionable Strategy for Investors
If you're holding or looking to buy, you've gotta decide which side of the fence you're on.
- Watch the Capex: The next earnings report will confirm if they really are hitting that $100B+ spending mark. If they do, expect the stock to stay under pressure in the short term.
- The "Wearables" Metric: Keep an eye on sales figures for the smart glasses. If they hit that 20 million unit production target, Meta effectively owns the next major hardware platform after the smartphone.
- Dividend Safety: Don't forget, Meta pays a dividend now (about $0.53 per quarter). It’s small (0.33% yield), but it shows they are at least somewhat committed to giving some cash back to shareholders.
- P/E Comparison: Compare Meta’s P/E to Alphabet. If Meta’s P/E drops below 25 while revenue growth stays above 20%, it’s historically been a massive "buy the dip" signal.
The 2026 story for Meta isn't about likes or pokes. It’s about whether Mark Zuckerberg can turn a massive pile of GPUs and nuclear reactors into a profit machine before investors lose their patience.
Stay focused on the "wearable AI" pivot. That is where the real value is hiding. If they win the face, they win the decade.