Investing in sportswear is a lot like buying a pair of vintage Sambas. You’re hoping for something classic that holds its value, but sometimes you just end up with sore feet and a lighter wallet. If you’ve been watching the stock price for adidas lately, you know exactly what that tension feels like.
The German giant has been on a rollercoaster. One minute, CEO Bjørn Gulden is being hailed as the savior who cleaned up the Yeezy mess; the next, Bank of America is slapping a rare "underperform" rating on the stock, sending shares tumbling. It’s messy. It’s volatile. Honestly, it’s exactly what happens when a massive brand tries to find its soul again after a very public breakup.
The Bjørn Gulden Effect: Is the Magic Fading?
When Bjørn Gulden took over in early 2023, the vibes were immaculate. He was the "straight-talker" from Puma who was going to fix the broken culture at Herzogenaurach. And for a while, it worked. He leaned into "brand heat," revitalizing the Terrace trend (think Gazelles and Sambas) and focusing on wholesale relationships that the previous leadership had basically ignored.
But here’s the thing: markets are fickle.
By the end of 2025, the stock price for adidas started showing some serious cracks. Despite the company hitting record revenues in Q3 2025—roughly €6.63 billion, if you're keeping score—the stock lost nearly 30% of its value over the year. Why? Because the "low-hanging fruit" of the turnaround has mostly been picked. The inventory glut is gone. The last of the Yeezy stock was officially sold off by the end of 2024, leaving a €650 million hole in the revenue stream that "regular" sneakers now have to fill.
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What’s Actually Moving the Needle in 2026?
If you’re looking at the ticker today, you’re seeing a price that reflects a lot of "wait and see" energy. On January 14, 2026, the stock (ADDYY) closed around $93.49, down about 1.7% on the day. Over in Germany, the Xetra-listed shares (ADS) have been hovering near the €160 mark.
It's not exactly a moonshot.
- The Nike Threat: For a couple of years, adidas feasted while Nike struggled with its own identity crisis. But Nike is finally punching back. As the "Swoosh" reorganizes, analysts worry that adidas will lose the easy market share gains it enjoyed during 2024 and 2025.
- The Upstarts: It’s not just the big guys anymore. Brands like On and Asics are eating everyone's lunch in the high-performance running category.
- The Tariff Ghost: Nobody likes talking about logistics, but increased U.S. tariffs are a real headache. Adidas estimated a €200 million hit from these in the latter half of 2025. They’re trying to mitigate it, but it’s a constant drag on those gross margins that investors watch so closely.
The Jerry Lorenzo Breakup
Remember when the Fear of God partnership was supposed to be the "post-Yeezy spark"?
Yeah, that didn't quite happen. In December 2025, Jerry Lorenzo confirmed the partnership was officially over. It wasn't a "failed" collab—the clothes were cool and the minimalist aesthetic influenced their basketball line—but it never reached the "drop everything and buy" level of hysteria that Ye's shoes did. For investors, this was a signal that adidas can't just "plug and play" a new creative director and expect a billion-dollar sub-brand to appear overnight.
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Is the Stock Price for adidas a Buy or a Trap?
Honestly, it depends on your timeline.
Bank of America recently double-downgraded the stock to a "sell," arguing that the 20-year "casualization" trend is basically over. They think the 2026 FIFA World Cup will provide a nice little bump, but then things might get ugly. On the flip side, about 84% of analysts tracked by Bloomberg are still screaming "buy," pointing to the company's improved operating profit—which is projected to hit around €2 billion this year.
That’s a huge gap in opinion.
The bull case is simple: Gulden has made adidas a "sports" brand again. They’re winning in football (soccer), their running tech (Adizero) is actually breaking records, and they’ve localized their design hubs so they aren't just trying to sell German tastes to a kid in Shanghai.
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The bear case? It’s all priced in. The "turnaround story" is an old story now. Now, they actually have to execute in a world where consumers are squeezed by inflation and have way more choices than just "Stripes vs. Swoosh."
Actionable Insights for the Savvy Watcher
If you're tracking the stock price for adidas, don't just look at the daily fluctuations. Watch these specific metrics:
- Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Gulden fixed the "mountain of unsold shoes" problem. If you see inventories creeping back up above €5 billion without a massive sales spike, that’s a red flag.
- The "Running" Growth Rate: Adidas saw 30% growth in running in late 2025. If that slows down, it means they’re losing the performance battle to On and Hoka.
- China Recovery: Greater China grew about 10-12% recently. This is their most profitable market. Any geopolitical hiccup there hits the stock harder than a North American slump.
- DTC vs. Wholesale: Watch the margins. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) is great for profit, but Gulden’s "wholesale-first" pivot is what saved the brand’s relationship with retailers. Balancing the two is the secret sauce.
The bottom line is that the stock price for adidas isn't the "sure thing" it looked like eighteen months ago. It’s a battleground stock. You've got a company that is fundamentally healthier than it was in 2022, but it's facing a macro environment that is much, much harsher.
To stay ahead, keep an eye on the preliminary 2025 full-year earnings reports usually released in early spring. That’s when we’ll see if the "€2 billion profit" target was a pipe dream or a reality. Pay close attention to the 2026 guidance; if they forecast anything less than high-single-digit growth, expect the market to react poorly. Diversifying your sportswear exposure by looking at the broader sector—including those "upstart" brands—is probably the smartest move right now while the giants figure out their next move.