If you’re staring at your portfolio right now wondering why everything feels so chaotic despite the headlines screaming about a bull market, you aren’t alone. Honestly, the vibe is weird. It is Sunday, January 18, 2026, and while the physical exchanges in New York are locked up for the weekend—and will stay closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday— the "shadow market" is buzzing with enough drama to fill a Netflix miniseries.
Between President Trump’s sudden threats of 25% tariffs on European allies over a Greenland real estate pitch and the intense speculation over who will sit in the Federal Reserve chair, the question of how is stock market doing today has a complicated answer. It’s a mix of AI-driven euphoria and cold, hard geopolitical fear.
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The Weekend Reality Check: Greenland and Gold
The big news hitting the tape this morning isn't about earnings; it's about land. Specifically, Greenland. Stocks are bracing for a rough Monday (and a rocky Tuesday for U.S. traders) because of the latest trade shock. Trump has essentially told eight European countries—including heavyweights like Germany, France, and the UK—that they’re getting hit with 10% tariffs starting February 1, rising to 25% by June, unless they back his bid to acquire Greenland.
The market hates uncertainty. It hates trade wars even more. IG’s weekend markets are already pricing in a 0.5% drop for the Dow and nearly a 1% slide for the London Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, "safe haven" assets are doing exactly what you'd expect. Gold is hovering near record highs at $4,625 an ounce, and silver has already surged 25% since the start of the year. When people are scared of stocks, they buy shiny metal. That’s basically where we are today.
Breaking Down the Indices: A Mixed Bag
To really understand how the market is doing, you have to look at what happened right before the closing bell on Friday. It wasn't a bloodbath, but it wasn't a party either. The major averages were mostly flat to slightly down as investors tried to digest a massive "triple whammy" of news: the Fed chair hunt, AI sustainability, and Iran.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed down about 0.16% at 49,363. It’s knocking on the door of 50,000, but it just can’t seem to find the keys.
- The S&P 500: Ended at 6,944.47, a tiny gain of 0.26%. It’s basically treading water.
- The Nasdaq Composite: Finished Friday at 23,530. It’s up over 50% since this new bull market began in April 2025, but the momentum is starting to feel... heavy.
What’s interesting is the divergence. While the big tech names (the "Magnificent Seven") are still holding things up, we're seeing some cracks. Salesforce took a nearly 3% hit on Friday, and UnitedHealth dropped over 2%. On the flip side, old-school names like IBM and Honeywell were actually up. It’s like the market is trying to decide if it wants to keep betting on the future or hide in the past.
The Fed Chair Drama: Warsh vs. Hassett
If you want to know why bond yields are spiking, look at the White House. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 4.5-month high of 4.23% this weekend. Why? Because the market thought Kevin Hassett—who is seen as a "dove" (someone who likes low interest rates)—was a shoe-in for Fed Chair.
Then Trump suggested he might keep Hassett in his current advisor role and look elsewhere. Now, names like Kevin Warsh are floating around. Warsh is considered more of a "hawk." Hawks like to keep interest rates higher to fight inflation. Higher rates usually mean lower stock prices. It’s a simple equation that’s making everyone very twitchy.
AI: Is the Bubble Leaking?
We can't talk about how is stock market doing today without mentioning Artificial Intelligence. It’s the engine that has driven this rally for three years. Since 2023, the S&P 500 has averaged a 21% annual return. That is triple the historical average.
But look at the CAPE ratio. It’s currently sitting at 39.8. To put that in perspective, the only other times it was this high were right before the dot-com crash in 2000 and right before the Great Depression in 1929.
Does that mean we’re about to crash? Not necessarily. But it means the margin for error is zero. When Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reported record profits last week, the market cheered. But when Oracle missed expectations a few weeks ago, it wiped $80 billion off the map. Investors are no longer buying "AI potential." They want AI profits. Now.
Winners and Losers Under the Hood
While the big indices look stable, there’s a lot of churn underneath.
- The Crypto Connection: Riot Platforms and IREN are surging. Riot jumped 16% on Friday after securing a massive data center lease.
- Retail Realities: Amazon and Costco are doing great because people are still spending, but furniture retailers like RH are struggling. People aren't buying new couches when housing starts are down.
- Quantum Caution: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) just collapsed 48% from its peak. It’s a reminder that "cutting edge" often means "bleeding edge" for your wallet.
What to Watch This Week
Even with the holiday, this is going to be a massive week for your money. Here is the checklist:
- Davos: Trump is expected to speak at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday. Keep an eye on his comments regarding housing reform and those European tariffs.
- Earnings: Netflix and Intel report this week. They are the bellwethers. If Netflix shows slowing subscriber growth or Intel fumbles its AI chip rollout, the Nasdaq is going to have a rough ride.
- PCE Inflation: We’re getting the delayed inflation data for late 2025. If inflation isn't cooling as fast as hoped, those dreams of rate cuts are going to evaporate.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this information?
First, stop checking your 401(k) every hour. The "Greenland Tariff" news is a classic geopolitical shock—it usually causes a sharp dip followed by a recovery once the rhetoric cools down. Second, look at your tech exposure. If you’re 90% in AI chips, you’re playing with fire given the current CAPE ratio valuations.
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Consider rebalancing into sectors that handle volatility well. Healthcare was the clear leader in Q4 2025 for a reason. Also, keep an eye on those bond yields; if the 10-year Treasury crosses 4.5%, the pressure on stocks will become intense. Basically, be careful out there. The bull is still running, but it’s looking a bit winded.
Move some of your cash into high-yield savings or short-term CDs while the Fed drama settles—you can get 5% right now with zero risk while the market figures out its next direction. Don't chase the AI rally at these prices; wait for the inevitable "tariff dip" to pick up quality names at a discount.