Honestly, the mood on Wall Street this Monday felt like a collective holding of breath. After the tech-heavy Nasdaq spent the last two sessions high-fiving itself at record closing levels, things finally cooled off.
It wasn't a crash. Not even close. But the stock market news August 11 2025 shows a market that's suddenly very aware of how high it's climbed and how little it takes to slip.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both dipped about 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a slightly harder hit, sliding 0.5%. You've got to wonder if the "Trump Trade" or the "Rate Cut Rally" is starting to run into a wall of reality. We saw the Nasdaq touch a fresh intraday all-time high early in the session before the air started leaking out of the tires. Basically, investors are staring down the barrel of tomorrow's CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, and nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag if inflation comes in hot.
The Big Movers: Chocolate, Cage Fighting, and Chips
While the broad indexes were just drifting, under the surface, things were actually pretty chaotic.
Take Intuit (INTU). They had a rough day, dropping 5.7%. That’s the kind of move that makes a portfolio bleed. Why? Well, it’s the AI boogeyman again. Analysts are getting twitchy about "TurboTax Live" and whether generative AI is going to eat their lunch. Plus, with the economy feeling a bit "meh," people are worried about how much small businesses are going to spend on software.
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Then you have Hershey (HSY). Their stock sank 4.8%. It’s not that people stopped liking Reese's; it's that cocoa prices are going through the roof because of dry weather in West Africa. When the ingredients for your main product get that expensive, you either hike prices and risk losing customers or you eat the cost. Neither is a great look for the balance sheet.
But it wasn't all red.
- TKO Group Holdings (TKO): Surged over 10%. Why? They just inked a massive $7.7 billion deal with the newly merged Paramount Skydance for exclusive UFC broadcasting rights.
- Albemarle (ALB): Up 7%. Lithium prices have been in the gutter, but news that China’s CATL halted a major mine gave lithium producers a much-needed jolt.
- Electronic Arts (EA): Added 5.1%. Turns out the beta test for Battlefield 6 was actually good. Like, surprisingly good.
The Inflation Shadow and the Fed
Everyone is obsessed with the Fed right now. There’s this constant tug-of-war between President Trump’s demands for lower rates and the actual data the Fed looks at.
Current market sentiment is leaning heavily toward a 25-basis point cut in September. The "CME FedWatch" tool is showing nearly a 90% probability for it. But here is the kicker: that all depends on the CPI report coming out Tuesday. If that number shows that the new tariffs—some of which just went into effect last week—are already pushing prices up, the Fed might keep their hands in their pockets.
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It's a weird contradiction. Corporate earnings have actually been great. About 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates this quarter. That’s higher than the 10-year average! But as any seasoned trader will tell you, the market doesn't care about what happened yesterday; it only cares about what happens tomorrow.
Tariffs and the "Reciprocal" Reality
The new "reciprocal tariffs" are officially in play as of last Thursday. President Trump has been vocal on Truth Social, claiming these will have a "huge positive impact," but the bond market is a bit more skeptical.
The 10-year Treasury yield stayed flat at 4.28% today. If the market truly believed tariffs were going to be purely stimulative without inflation, we’d see a different reaction. Instead, we’re seeing "Burnomics" at play—the U.S. dollar has actually lost about 11% of its value against major currencies in the first half of 2025. It makes American burgers look cheap to tourists, but it makes everything we import a whole lot more expensive.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
The stock market news August 11 2025 tells us we are in a "show me" market. We’ve seen the highs, now we need to see the justification.
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- Watch the CPI Print: Tomorrow is the big one. If headline inflation stays under 3%, the September rate cut is likely a lock. If it spikes? Expect a significant pullback in tech.
- Sector Rotation: Notice how lithium and defense/media (TKO) did well while "stable" consumer staples like Hershey struggled. The "safe" bets aren't necessarily safe right now.
- Mind the "Breadth" Gap: Only about half of the stocks in the major indexes are actually in a positive trend. When the indexes hit new highs while most stocks are lagging, that’s usually a signal that a correction is brewing.
- Earnings Isn't Over: Keep an eye on Cisco and Applied Materials later this week. They'll give us a better look at whether the hardware side of the AI boom is still holding up or if the "GenAI" fatigue we saw with Intuit is spreading.
Moving forward, keep your stop-losses tight. We're in the "dog days" of August where volume is lower and moves can be exaggerated. If you're looking to put new money to work, maybe wait for the post-CPI dust to settle.
Check your portfolio exposure to high-import industries. With the new tariff regime active, companies that can't pass on costs—like we saw with the cocoa crisis hitting Hershey—are going to be the first ones to see their margins squeezed. Stay liquid and stay patient.
Next Steps for Investors
Review your exposure to the tech sector ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. If you are heavily weighted in growth stocks, consider whether you are comfortable with the volatility that a "hot" CPI reading could trigger. Diversifying into sectors with domestic supply chains may offer a hedge against the ongoing tariff-driven price shifts. Finally, keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY); a continued slide there will benefit exporters but might keep the Fed in a hawkish mood.