Politics in California isn't exactly a contact sport—it’s more like a highly choreographed stage play. If you were watching the steve garvey adam schiff polls back in 2024, you saw a race that felt like a foregone conclusion from the jump.
Adam Schiff basically picked his own opponent. That sounds cynical, but honestly, it’s just the reality of how the "top-two" primary system works in the Golden State. By spending millions of dollars on ads "attacking" Steve Garvey as being too conservative for California, Schiff effectively introduced the former Dodgers legend to every Republican voter in the state. He wanted Garvey on the general election ballot because a Republican hasn't won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger was the "Governator" back in 2006.
The Reality of the Steve Garvey Adam Schiff Polls
By the time the general election rolled around in November 2024, the numbers were remarkably consistent. Schiff was sitting pretty.
Most major surveys, like those from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times, showed Schiff leading by roughly 20 points for months. In late October 2024, one of the final high-quality polls put Schiff at 55% and Garvey at 34%.
It didn't really fluctuate much.
Why? Because California is deep, deep blue. The "undecided" voters in these polls weren't usually people weighing whether to vote for a MAGA-aligned Republican or a progressive Democrat; they were usually Democrats who just hadn't bothered to tune in yet.
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Final Results vs. The Predictions
When the dust settled on November 5, 2024, the actual results mirrored the polls almost perfectly. Schiff secured approximately 59% of the vote, while Garvey pulled in about 41%.
While Garvey lost—and lost decisively—his performance was actually the best a Republican had seen in a California Senate race since the mid-90s. He managed to win Orange County and flipped a few Northern California spots like San Joaquin County. He even set a record for the most votes ever received by a non-presidential Republican candidate in any state.
But 6.3 million votes still wasn't enough to beat Schiff’s 9 million.
How Schiff Gamed the System
You’ve got to look at the primary to understand why the general election polls were so stagnant. Schiff’s biggest threats weren’t Republicans. They were fellow Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
If Porter had made it to the November ballot, Schiff would have had to fight a grueling, expensive "Democrat vs. Democrat" battle. That would have required him to move further left and spend every cent of his war chest on himself.
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Instead, Schiff’s team saw an opening. They spent roughly $38 million before the primary. A huge chunk of that went to ads that essentially told Republicans: "Hey, Steve Garvey is the guy who loves Trump!"
It worked. Republicans flocked to Garvey, Porter was squeezed out into third place, and Schiff got the easy November matchup he wanted.
A Low-Key Campaign Strategy
Garvey didn't run a traditional campaign. He didn't have the money for a massive TV blitz, and he skipped a lot of the standard GOP party events. He focused on a few key issues:
- Homelessness: He did "tours" of skid row and talked about the "failure of the status quo."
- Cost of Living: He hammered the idea that California is becoming unaffordable for the middle class.
- Israel: He made a summer trip to Israel to shore up support on foreign policy.
Garvey’s "commonsense, compassion, and consensus" slogan was a nice touch, but it couldn't overcome the math. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, a Republican needs to win almost every single Independent and a chunk of moderate Democrats. The polls showed he never quite made those inroads.
The Financial Gap
Money talks. Actually, in California politics, money screams. By the end of October 2024, over $85 million had been poured into this contest. Schiff was a fundraising juggernaut, entering the home stretch with millions more in the bank than Garvey, even though Garvey actually outraised him in a couple of the final quarters.
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What This Means for Future California Elections
The steve garvey adam schiff polls taught us that the "Schiff Strategy" is the new blueprint for dominant parties in top-two primary states. If you can pick your opponent, you've already won.
Garvey’s relatively strong showing (for a Republican) suggests there is a ceiling for the GOP in California that sits right around 40-42%. To break through that, a candidate would likely need to be a centrist celebrity with a massive platform, much like Schwarzenegger was.
Schiff now sits in the seat held for three decades by Dianne Feinstein. Because of the way he played the primary, he didn't just win a seat; he gained seniority and preserved his political capital to help other Democrats across the country.
If you are looking to track the impact of this race on current policy, you should monitor Schiff’s voting record on federal immigration reform and national abortion rights, as these were the two "wedge" issues that defined his lead in the 2024 surveys. You can also look into how the California GOP plans to reorganize following Garvey's record-setting (yet losing) vote total to see if they pivot toward his "consensus" messaging or double down on traditional party platforms.