Honestly, if you live on Staten Island, you know the drill. You check the apps, they say "NYC," and then you walk outside to find a microclimate that doesn't care about what's happening in Midtown. As of Friday, January 16, 2026, we're sitting at a crisp 23°F, but with that west wind hitting at 12 mph, it feels more like 10°F. It’s the kind of cold that bites.
Staten Island weather 15 days from now is likely to look a lot different than the slushy mess we're seeing this weekend, but getting there is going to be a bumpy ride.
The 15-Day Outlook: Slush, Sun, and the Deep Freeze
We’ve got a weird stretch coming up. If you’re planning your life around the staten island weather 15 days forecast, you need to look at the immediate "will it or won't it" snow situation first.
Today (Friday, Jan 16) is giving us a high of 36°F. It’s partly sunny for now, but don't get comfortable. By tonight, we’re looking at light snow with a 25% chance of precipitation. Tomorrow, Saturday, Jan 17, is basically a mess. Expect a rain and snow mix with a high of 40°F. It’s that classic coastal transition where the temperature creeps just high enough to turn "snow globe vibes" into "wet socks."
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Here is the vibe for the next chunk of the month:
- Sunday (Jan 18): More light snow showers. High of 37°F.
- Monday (Jan 19): Things clear up but get frigid. Sunny with a high of 34°F, but dropping to 15°F at night.
- The Deep Freeze (Jan 20-21): Tuesday is the real reality check. High of only 21°F. If you’re commuting on the SIR, bundle up. Wednesday brings us back to 32°F with snow showers at night.
As we look toward the end of January, specifically Sunday, Jan 25, we’re tracking a more consistent snow event with a high of 26°F. This isn't just a dusting; it’s the cold, dry air meeting the Atlantic moisture.
Why Our Weather Is Never "Just NYC Weather"
Staten Island is basically a giant heat sink surrounded by water. The Arthur Kill, the Kill Van Kull, and the Lower New York Bay act as moderators.
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During these winter stretches, the ocean is usually warmer than the air. That’s why you’ll see it dumping snow in Tottenville while it’s just raining in St. George, or vice versa. The bluffs on the South Shore can catch wind gusts that the rest of the city never feels. Historical data for January 2026 shows we're averaging about 35°F, which is actually a couple of degrees below the usual norm.
We’ve seen it before—like in 2018 or even the weirdly dry 2025—where the "snow line" literally cuts the island in half. If the wind is coming from the northeast, expect the East Shore to get hammered with moisture. If it’s a west wind, like we have today, it’s just cold and dry.
The "Snow Globe" vs. The "Shutdown"
Forecasters like Laura Ratliff have been calling this a "snow globe" weekend rather than a "citywide shutdown." We’re looking at light accumulations—maybe an inch or two if the Saturday morning temps stay low—but the real story is the ice.
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When you have a high of 40°F (Saturday) followed by a low of 15°F (Monday), that’s a recipe for black ice on the Expressway. Honestly, the 15-day trend suggests we are entering the coldest cycle of the year. According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac and recent NWS trends, late January is consistently our "bitter cold" window.
Actionable Winter Steps for Islanders:
- Check the Salt: If you haven’t hit the Home Depot on Forest Ave yet, do it before Sunday. That Monday freeze is going to turn your driveway into a skating rink.
- The "High-Tide" Factor: With sea levels up nearly a foot over the last century, a "rain and snow" mix on Saturday coupled with high tide could mean some minor street flooding in low-lying East Shore spots.
- Commuter Prep: The SIR usually handles snow well, but that 15°F Monday night means potential signal issues Tuesday morning. Give yourself an extra 20 minutes.
- Monitor Jan 25: Keep an eye on that Sunday. It’s the next "real" snow possibility where temperatures actually stay below freezing all day.
Basically, the staten island weather 15 days out is telling us to stop pretending winter isn't here. It’s here, it’s wet, and by Tuesday, it’s going to be very, very cold. Stay warm out there.