Winter in New York is weird. One day you're walking along the Franklin D. Roosevelt Boardwalk in a light hoodie, and the next, a "Polar Vortex" headline is screaming at you from your phone. If you’ve been staring at the 10 day forecast Staten Island is currently showing, you know exactly what I mean.
It's messy.
Honestly, Staten Island weather doesn't behave like the rest of the city. We’re the "forgotten borough," but the Atlantic Ocean definitely remembers we’re here. That water is a giant thermal battery that keeps us a few degrees warmer than the Bronx, yet the wind whipping off Lower New York Bay can make a 40-degree day feel like a 20-degree nightmare.
Right now, we are looking at a classic mid-January rollercoaster. After that "January Thaw" we just had—where temperatures were trending nearly 15 degrees warmer than last year—the atmosphere is finally deciding to act its age.
The Breakdown: Your 10 Day Forecast Staten Island Outlook
The immediate outlook is all about the transition. We are moving from "suspiciously mild" to "painfully seasonal." Here is what the trend looks like for the next week and a half across the island, from St. George down to Tottenville.
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The Initial Cool-Down (Days 1-3)
Expect a sharp drop. We’re coming off highs in the low 50s, but that’s ending. By Thursday, January 15, we are looking at a high of 41°F and a low that plummets to 22°F. That is a massive swing. If you’re commuting on the ferry, that morning wind chill is going to be brutal. Friday stays crisp and sunny with a high of 34°F. It’s the kind of cold that feels "clean" but bites if you aren't layered up.
The "Frozen Mix" Threat (Days 4-6)
Saturday, January 17, is the day to watch. Currently, there's a 30% chance of a frozen mix. In Staten Island speak, that usually means a slushy mess on Hylan Boulevard. Because we are surrounded by water, we often sit right on the "rain-snow line." A two-degree difference determines if you’re shoveling six inches of powder or dealing with a gray, icy puddle. Sunday through Monday (MLK Day) looks clear but frigid, with lows hanging around 18°F.
The Deep Freeze (Days 7-10)
This is where the Polar Vortex chatter becomes real. Around January 20 and 21, temperatures are expected to bottom out. We’re talking highs of only 24°F to 26°F. These are the days when the pipes in older North Shore homes start to get grumpy. The sky will likely be clear, but don't let the sun fool you. It’s going to be cold. Like, "don't leave your dog outside for more than five minutes" cold.
Why the Island Weather is So Hard to Predict
Microclimates are real. If you live in Westerleigh, you might see flurries that never even touch the Great Kills harbor.
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Local experts like those at WeatherWorks or forensic meteorologists like Brock Burghardt often point out how NYC's "urban heat island" effect is mitigated here by our green space. We have the Greenbelt. All those trees in High Rock Park actually help cool the air compared to the concrete jungle of Midtown.
But then there's the ocean.
The Atlantic Corridor tends to stay a bit more "temperate" (if you can call 30 degrees temperate) because the water doesn't lose heat as fast as the land. This is why we often get "ocean-effect" clouds or sudden fog that blankets the Verrazzano Bridge while the rest of Brooklyn is in the clear.
Survival Tips for the Next 10 Days
Basically, you need to prepare for three different seasons in one week.
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- Watch the "Dewpoint": In January, our dewpoint sits around 21°F. When it's that low, the air is incredibly dry. It’s not just about the cold; it’s about the skin-cracking, lip-chapping lack of moisture. Grab the heavy-duty moisturizer now.
- The "Salt Life": If that 30% chance of frozen mix hits on Saturday, the salt trucks will be out. If you live on a hilly street in Grymes Hill or Silver Lake, move your car early. Staten Island hills plus a light glaze of ice is a recipe for a very expensive insurance claim.
- Wind Prep: January wind speeds on the island average about 11 mph, but gusts near the shore can hit 40+ knots. If you have loose patio furniture or those lightweight plastic recycling bins, secure them before Thursday night's front moves through.
The biggest mistake people make with the 10 day forecast Staten Island provides is looking only at the "high" temperature. In the winter, the "low" tells the real story. A 40-degree day that drops to 18 at night means any standing water from a daytime melt becomes a black-ice trap by the morning commute.
Stay weather-aware, especially around the 17th and the 20th. Those are the pivot points where the "January Thaw" officially dies and winter actually begins.
Next Steps for Staten Islanders:
- Check your car’s tire pressure; it drops significantly when the temp hits that 22°F mark on Thursday night.
- Verify your heating system is cleared of any obstructions before the deep freeze arrives on the 20th.
- Keep an eye on the Saturday "mix" updates, as that 30% probability is likely to shift as the coastal low-pressure system develops.