Look, if you’re reading this, you probably survived the quarterfinals. Congrats. But Week 16 is a different beast. It’s the semi-finals for most, and the stakes are basically "win or go home and think about what you did for the next nine months." This late in the 2025-2026 season, you aren't just playing against your opponent; you're playing against the "should I overthink this?" demon sitting on your shoulder.
Everyone knows the studs. You’re starting Saquon Barkley against Washington. You aren't benching Justin Jefferson because of a bad weather report in New Jersey. But what do you do with the guys who have been "kinda" good but face a brutal matchup? Or the waiver wire hero who suddenly looks like a league-winner?
Let's cut the fluff. Here is the reality of your starts sits week 16 decisions.
The Quarterback Quagmire: Trusting the Hot Hand
Quarterback is weird this year. We've seen some serious regression from some of the big names, while veterans and rookies alike are keeping teams afloat.
Start: Brock Purdy (49ers at Colts)
Indy has a serious problem. They’ve allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this year, only trailing the Cowboys in that unfortunate category. Purdy has been playing like a man possessed lately, especially with the 49ers fighting for playoff seeding. He just dropped 26.2 fantasy points on the Titans without turning the ball over once.
The Colts rank 14th in pass EPA allowed but are much sturdier against the run (3rd). That gap is a fantasy manager's dream. It forces teams to throw more than they want to. Purdy is a top-two QB in EPA per play and CPOE right now. If he’s on your roster, don't get cute. Play him.
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Sit: Marcus Mariota (Commanders vs. Eagles)
Mariota has been a fun story. He’s been a high-floor streamer because of his legs, but this week feels like a trap. The Eagles defense is generating pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. To make matters worse, Mariota is missing his left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, who’s out with an oblique injury.
PFF has Mariota graded as the 32nd-ranked passer under pressure. Philadelphia is tied for the second-fewest passing fantasy points allowed per dropback. Unless you’re desperate for those 20 rushing yards he usually provides, this is a week to find a different option.
Running Backs: Volume vs. Efficiency
The RB landscape in Week 16 is a minefield of "split backfields."
Start: Michael Carter (Cardinals at Falcons)
This is the definition of a "next man up" success story. With Trey Benson and Bam Knight both on IR, Michael Carter is basically the last man standing in Arizona. Last week, he took 14 carries and saw four targets. That resulted in 94 total yards.
He’s facing an Atlanta defense that has been a sieve lately. They’ve given up at least 27 points in almost every game since Week 10. Carter had a 72% route rate last week, which is elite for a running back. He's a workhorse in a game that Vegas expects to be a high-scoring shootout.
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Sit: Jaylen Warren (Steelers at Lions)
Honestly, it looks like the Steelers have moved on. Last week, Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped, out-carried, and out-targeted Warren across the board. The Lions are also seven-point favorites, which usually means the Steelers will be playing from behind.
If Pittsburgh is chasing points, Gainwell is the guy getting the passing work. Warren is a "bench and pray" at this point. Don't let your season end because you were loyal to a guy who isn't getting the touches.
The Tight End "Lotto" in Week 16
Tight end remains a disaster for most people. If you don't have Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, you're basically throwing darts.
Start: Kyle Pitts (Falcons vs. Cardinals)
It finally happened. Pitts is actually performing. He just put up 45.6 fantasy points last week—the most by any tight end all season. He’s been Kirk Cousins’ top target for a month now.
The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most yards to the position since Week 11. They also give up a ton of touchdowns. If you spent a high draft pick on Pitts, this is the week he finally pays you back for all the stress he caused in September.
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Start: Colby Parkinson (Rams at Seahawks)
This is a deep sleeper for those in trouble. The Rams are likely without Davante Adams, which leaves a massive void in the target share. Parkinson has seen his target share grow every single week—11%, then 14%, 16%, and finally 18% last week.
Seattle is the second-best matchup for tight ends in terms of yards allowed. If you're a "punt the position" kind of manager, Parkinson is a legitimate streaming option who could get you 10-12 points without breaking a sweat.
Wide Receivers: Matchups to Exploit
Start: DeVonta Smith (Eagles at Commanders)
A lot of people are worried because Smith has taken a backseat to A.J. Brown lately. Stop worrying. Washington is the worst team in the league at defending slot receivers, giving up a staggering 98.1 yards per game to that spot.
Smith runs nearly 60% of his routes from the slot. This is a "get right" game for him. He should feast while the Commanders try (and fail) to double-team Brown.
Sit: Deebo Samuel (49ers at Colts)
This sounds crazy, but hear me out. The Colts are actually very good at defending the slot, which is where Deebo lives. While the 49ers will likely score points, the path of least resistance is through their outside receivers like Jauan Jennings or through the air to the backs.
The Colts are holding opposing slot WRs to a league-low in fantasy points. If you have another high-end option, Deebo might actually be a risky play this week.
Critical Factors for Week 16 Success
- Monitor the Weather: Late December games in Chicago (Packers at Bears) and Cleveland (Bills at Browns) can turn into "run-only" affairs very quickly. If the wind is over 20mph, think twice about your kickers and deep-threat WRs.
- Check the Saturday Games: Remember, we have two games on Saturday (Eagles at Commanders and Packers at Bears). Don't leave a guy on your bench who plays Saturday only to realize your Sunday starter is a late scratch.
- The "Motivation" Factor: By Week 16, teams like the Raiders and Titans are basically playing for draft picks. Look for players on teams still hunting for playoff spots—they won't be pulling their starters in the third quarter.
Actionable Strategy for Your Lineup
- Verify your Saturday starters. Move any Saturday players into your WR/RB slots, not your FLEX, to give yourself maximum flexibility for Sunday.
- Prioritize Volume over "Big Names." In the semi-finals, a guy like Michael Carter getting 18 touches is safer than a "star" in a timeshare or a brutal matchup.
- Scan the Waiver Wire for IDP help. If your league uses individual defensive players, look at Patrick Queen or Alex Anzalone. Both are in matchups (Steelers vs. Lions) that should yield a massive amount of tackles.
- Trust the implied totals. Vegas is usually smarter than us. If a game has a 48.5 total (like Cardinals vs. Falcons), start as many pieces of those offenses as you can.
Setting your lineup for starts sits week 16 is about minimizing risk. You don't need a 40-point miracle from every player; you just need to avoid the zeros. Stick to the volume, watch the injury reports on Saturday morning, and trust the data over your gut.