Honestly, looking at the NHL standings in mid-January is usually an exercise in lying to yourself. We all do it. We see a team like the Philadelphia Flyers hanging onto a spot and think, "Yeah, they’ve got the grit to stay there." Then you look at the underlying metrics and realize they’re essentially a house of cards held together by spit and prayer.
As of January 18, 2026, the Stanley Cup playoff chances for about a dozen teams are swinging wildly on a nightly basis. If you’re a fan of a team in the Atlantic Division right now, you’re probably vibrating with anxiety. It’s a mess. A beautiful, high-stakes mess.
Why the Atlantic Division Is a Total Fever Dream
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings are currently deadlocked at 62 points. Tampa has a slight edge with a couple of games in hand, but the real story is the absolute dogfight happening just below them.
The Montreal Canadiens, led by a surging Ivan Demidov who’s basically a human highlight reel at this point, are sitting at 61 points. Then you have the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins at 56. Buffalo has two games in hand on Boston, but they just dropped a heartbreaking 5-4 overtime game to Minnesota that felt like a punch to the gut for Western New York.
The Sabres vs. The Curse
- The Math: MoneyPuck has Buffalo's chances floating around 57%, but that's a fickle number.
- The Reality: They haven't made the dance in 14 years. Every loss feels like a harbinger of doom.
- The X-Factor: Their "goaltending by committee" has actually been... good? Usually, that's a recipe for disaster, but it's keeping them afloat.
Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers are the weirdest story of the year. They won two straight Cups. Now, they’re sitting outside looking in with 53 points. But here’s the thing: Matthew Tkachuk hasn't played yet. Aleksander Barkov is out for the regular season. If Tkachuk comes back and finds his rhythm, the Panthers are the team nobody wants to see in the first round. Their Stanley Cup playoff chances are technically lower than Buffalo's right now, but I wouldn't bet against them.
The West Is Colorado’s World (We’re Just Living In It)
If the East is a chaotic bar fight, the Western Conference is a kingdom with one very angry king. The Colorado Avalanche are currently 33-5-8. That’s not a typo. They have 74 points in 46 games. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are playing a different sport than everyone else.
MacKinnon is sitting on 82 points already. He might hit 150. It’s absurd.
The Dallas Stars (63 points) and Minnesota Wild (61 points) are doing everything right, but they’re basically just racing for the right to lose to Colorado in the second round. Or at least that’s how it looks today. The Wild actually look terrifying since they landed Quinn Hughes. That move transformed their blue line overnight. They aren't just a "happy to be here" team anymore; they're a "we might actually break you" team.
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The San Jose Sharks Are Actually... Good?
This is the part where you might think I'm making stuff up. I'm not. The San Jose Sharks are currently holding a Wild Card spot. Macklin Celebrini is second in the league in assists with 48. He’s a rookie, and he’s carrying a franchise on his back like he’s been doing it for a decade.
Their playoff probability is hovering around 42%. It’s basically a coin flip. They have a negative goal differential, which usually screams "regression incoming," but they keep winning one-goal games. It’s a dangerous way to live, but for a fanbase that has suffered through the basement of the league, this is basically the Super Bowl.
Real Talk on the "Safe" Teams
There is no such thing as a safe team in the Metropolitan Division. The Carolina Hurricanes are leading the pack with 62 points, and they’re the most "Hurricanes" version of themselves ever. They outshoot everyone 40-20 and still somehow find ways to make games interesting.
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The New York Islanders (57 points) are playing that suffocating, boring hockey that everyone hates but works. Behind them, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals are both at 54 points. It’s 2026 and we are still watching Crosby and Ovechkin fight for the last ticket to the dance. It’s legendary, honestly.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Odds
People look at "Playoff Probability" and think it's a fixed destiny. It’s not. It’s a snapshot of a moving train.
- Strength of Schedule Matters: The Penguins have the 7th hardest remaining schedule in the league. Their 54 points might as well be 50.
- Health Is Everything: One twisted ankle for Connor McDavid (who is currently tied with MacKinnon at 82 points) and the Edmonton Oilers go from "contender" to "lottery team" in three weeks.
- The Trade Deadline Shadow: Teams like Boston are already scouting Rasmus Andersson from Calgary. One big trade changes the math instantly.
The Vegas Golden Knights are sitting comfortably at 58 points in the Pacific, but their "Win the Cup" odds are actually higher than their "Win the Division" odds. Why? Because they’re built for the playoffs, not the 82-game grind.
Actionable Steps for the Rest of the Season
If you're tracking Stanley Cup playoff chances, stop looking at the "PTS" column and start looking at "Games Played" and "Regulation Wins" (RW).
- Watch the RW Count: If a team is propped up by overtime losses (looking at you, Vegas with 12 OTL), they are vulnerable. In the playoffs, there is no loser point.
- Monitor the Return Dates: If you see the Panthers hovering around .500 when Tkachuk returns, that's your cue to buy in.
- Focus on the Metro/Atlantic Crossover: The Eastern Wild Card race is going to come down to the very last day of the season.
The reality is that about six teams are currently "locked" in. The other ten spots are a game of musical chairs played at 100 miles per hour on ice. Check the standings every Tuesday and Friday—those are the nights the "math" usually breaks.
Keep an eye on the Utah Mammoth too. They’re the dark horse. 52 points, solid underlying numbers, and a crowd that treats every home game like a Game 7. They might just bump a legacy team like the Kings or the Predators out of the picture entirely.
Don't trust the surface-level points. Look for the teams that are winning in regulation and have their stars getting healthy at the right time. That’s where the real money is.