Baseball is a game of numbers, but honestly, the numbers usually lie to you in January. We are sitting here in the dead of winter, 2026 is just kicking off, and everyone is staring at the final standings national league baseball produced last October like they’re a crystal ball. They aren't. If you think the Philadelphia Phillies winning 96 games last year means the NL East is a lock, you’ve probably forgotten how quickly a rotator cuff or a bad trade can tank a season.
The Milwaukee Brewers actually finished on top of the heap last year with 97 wins. They were the class of the National League, which sort of felt weird to say at the time, right? But looking at where teams are positioned right now, the gap between the "haves" and "have-nots" in the NL is getting weirdly specific.
Why the NL East Standings National League Baseball Are Deceptive
The Phillies owned this division. 96 wins. A massive +130 run differential. On paper, they’re the juggernaut. But look closer at the Atlanta Braves. They finished 2025 with a losing record—76-86. That sounds like a disaster until you remember they were basically a walking infirmary.
You had five starting pitchers on the IL at once. Spencer Strider coming back from surgery is the real X-factor for the 2026 standings. If Strider is the guy who dominates out of the gate, that 20-game gap between Philly and Atlanta from last year evaporates.
The Mets are the middle child here. They hovered around .512 (83-79) and honestly, they’re the team that spends the most but feels the least predictable. Juan Soto is now a fixture in New York, and that changes the math for every pitcher in the division. Can their pitching hold up? Probably not as well as the Phillies, but they’ll be the reason the NL East stays a bloodbath.
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The NL Central: A Two-Horse Race or a Mirage?
Milwaukee was a machine last season. 97 wins. They had a run differential of +172, which was the best in the entire league. But the Chicago Cubs were breathing down their necks with 92 wins.
- Milwaukee Brewers: 97-65
- Chicago Cubs: 92-70
- Cincinnati Reds: 83-79
The Reds are the team I’d keep an eye on for the 2026 jump. Elly De La Cruz is a human highlight reel, and if he cuts the strikeouts by even 10%, Cincinnati moves from "fun to watch" to "legit threat."
St. Louis is in a weird spot. 78-84. They are the definition of a transition year. Most experts, including the folks over at FanGraphs, are projecting them to stay right around that .500 mark. It’s tough to watch if you’re a Cards fan, but the pitching just isn't there yet to challenge a deep Brewers rotation.
The NL West and the Dodgers Problem
Everyone expects the Dodgers to win. They won 93 games last year. They have Shohei Ohtani.
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But the San Diego Padres are right there. They finished just a few games back at 90-72. The problem? Their rotation is a mess of question marks right now. Dylan Cease headed north to Toronto, and Michael King is a free agent. Yu Darvish is out for the entirety of 2026 after elbow surgery.
If you are looking at the standings national league baseball fans will see in July, the Padres might be the team that drops the most if they don't find two more starters. Meanwhile, Arizona (80-82) is banking on Corbin Carroll staying healthy. When he’s on, they look like a World Series team. When he’s not, they look like the Rockies.
Speaking of the Rockies... 43 wins. 119 losses. It’s the kind of season that makes you want to change sports. They are 50 games out of first place. 50.
Players Who Will Shift the 2026 Standings
It's not just about team records; it's about the individual anchors. Ohtani is expected to be back on the mound. That changes everything for the Dodgers' depth. Over in Pittsburgh, Paul Skenes is basically a cheat code. The Pirates only won 71 games, but every time Skenes starts, they're a playoff-caliber team.
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The "Way-Too-Early" projections for 2026 often ignore the farm. We’re seeing kids like Sebastian Walcott and Travis Bazzana coming up. While they might not all be NL-bound, the talent infusion in Milwaukee (Jesus Made) and San Diego (Leodalis De Vries) is going to start affecting the bottom of the order by mid-summer.
What to Watch for Next
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at the 2025 wins and starts looking at "Expected Wins" (x-W/L).
- The Braves: Their x-W/L was actually much higher than their 76 wins. They got unlucky. Expect a massive rebound.
- The Marlins: They won 79 games but had a -89 run differential. That’s a massive red flag. They’ll likely regress.
- The Pitching Market: Keep an eye on the remaining free-agent arms. A team like the Giants or Padres landing a frontline starter is the difference between a Wild Card spot and a third-place finish.
The most practical thing to do right now is to track the injury reports coming out of Spring Training. Specifically, watch Spencer Strider's velocity and Shohei Ohtani's throwing program. Those two arms alone will dictate who sits at the top of the National League by June.
Check the official MLB transaction wire weekly through February. Rosters are still fluid, and a single trade for a "innings eater" in the NL West could completely flip the projection for the Wild Card race.