You think you know Minnesota winters? Well, honestly, St. Paul just threw a curveball that’s making even the lifelong locals double-check their gear. We’ve had a weirdly mild start to the year—about 9 degrees warmer than usual—but that’s basically over now.
If you’re looking at the st paul mn weather forecast 10 day window, buckle up. The "January Thaw" is officially dead.
The Arctic Reality Check
Right now, we are sitting in a transition zone that feels kinda like a slow-motion car crash into a snowbank. Friday, January 16, started with a high of 33°F, which isn't exactly tropical, but it’s a far cry from what’s coming. By tonight, the temperature is dropping to 11°F. That’s a 22-degree slide in a single day.
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Expect light snow to continue through the evening with a 52% chance of precipitation. The wind is coming out of the west at 17 mph, making that 23°F current temperature feel more like 10°F. If you’re heading to a Wild game or just grabbing dinner at Cossetta’s, you’ve been warned: the wind chill is starting to bite.
Why the Forecast is Changing
Meteorologically speaking, we’re dealing with a "Ghostly La Niña." It sounds like a bad indie movie, but it’s basically a weak La Niña event that typically favors colder-than-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains. National Weather Service data shows that about 77% of the time, these weak events result in us getting absolutely hammered by arctic air in late January.
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The Next 10 Days: Day-by-Day Breakdown
Forget the "average" 22°F highs. Here is the actual data for St. Paul through the end of next week:
- Saturday, Jan 17: Snow showers will linger with a high of only 11°F. Lows drop to 6°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: The wind picks up to 22 mph. Highs of 17°F, but the overnight low hits -2°F.
- Monday, Jan 19: Mostly sunny but brutally cold. We are looking at a high of 5°F. Yes, single digits.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Snow showers return. High 13°F, Low 0°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Mostly cloudy. High 15°F, Low 6°F.
- Thursday, Jan 22: Partly sunny. High 16°F, Low 6°F.
- Friday, Jan 23: A brief "warm" spike to 30°F before the floor falls out again.
- Saturday, Jan 24: Frigid air returns. High 3°F, Low -11°F.
- Sunday, Jan 25: High 5°F, Low -10°F.
- Monday, Jan 26: Mostly cloudy with a slight recovery to 14°F.
The Misconception About "Dry Cold"
People love to say, "At least it’s a dry cold." Honestly, that’s a myth in St. Paul during January. Humidity is currently hovering around 74% to 75%. When you pair high humidity with sub-zero temperatures, the air feels heavier and more piercing. It’s not just cold; it’s invasive.
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The wind is the real killer here. We aren't seeing massive blizzards in this 10-day stretch, but with gusts frequently hitting 15–20 mph, blowing snow is going to make the I-94 commute a nightmare of whiteouts and "where did the lane go?" moments.
Survival Insights for the Week
If you're planning to be outside, you need to understand the "Feels Like" factor. On Monday and Saturday, those 3°F and 5°F highs will feel closer to -15°F with the wind chill.
- Check your tire pressure now. Rapid temperature drops from 33°F to -11°F will make your "low tire" light scream.
- Layer like a pro. Forget one big coat. You need a moisture-wicking base, an insulating middle layer (fleece or wool), and a wind-blocking shell.
- Snow totals are deceptive. We aren't seeing a "Snowpocalypse," but consistent 1-3 inch waves are expected through the weekend. It's the "death by a thousand cuts" version of winter.
The 10-day outlook suggests we are entering the coldest stretch of the 2025-2026 winter season. This isn't just a cold snap; it’s a pattern shift that will likely hold through the end of the month.
Actionable Next Steps: Go to the garage and find your heavy-duty ice scraper today. If you have outdoor pets, ensure their shelters are insulated and heated before Sunday night's dip into negative numbers. Finally, keep your gas tank at least half full to prevent fuel line freeze-up during the sub-zero mornings on January 19 and 24.