You’ve seen the Hollywood version of a Minnesota winter. It’s all puffy parkas and people getting their tongues stuck to frozen light poles. But if you’re actually looking at the st paul 30 day forecast, you know the reality is way more nuanced—and honestly, a bit weirder.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, Saint Paul is caught in that classic "deep winter" tug-of-war. We aren't just dealing with cold; we're dealing with a shifting atmospheric pattern that makes a single 30-day outlook feel like a puzzle.
The Current State of the Freeze
Let's get the immediate numbers out of the way because they set the stage for everything else. Today, January 17, we're sitting at about 8°F, but with that northwest wind kicking at 11 mph, it feels like -7°F. That’s the kind of cold that bites your cheeks the second you step out of the car.
Tonight, we’re looking at more light snow showers. It’s not a blizzard, but with a 20% chance of precipitation, it's enough to keep the roads slick.
Most people think January in the Twin Cities is just one long, flat line of misery. It isn't. It’s a series of peaks and valleys. Tomorrow, Sunday the 18th, we might actually see the mercury "climb" to 11°F, though the wind is expected to crank up to 17 mph.
Then comes the drop.
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By Monday, the high is projected to be -2°F. Yes, a high below zero. If you're planning your life around the st paul 30 day forecast, that Monday is your "stay inside and order pizza" day.
Why the Next 30 Days Look So Volatile
There is a massive misconception that once it gets cold, it stays cold. Actually, the big story for the rest of January 2026 is the Arctic Oscillation (AO).
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center have been tracking a negative phase of the AO. Basically, when the AO goes negative, the "fence" that keeps the coldest air trapped in the North Pole gets a few holes in it. That frigid air spills down into the Midwest.
Check out the spread for the upcoming week:
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Mostly cloudy, high of 8°F, low of -10°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: A slight "warm-up" to 18°F with more light snow.
- Friday, Jan 23: The bottom falls out again with a low of -18°F.
- Saturday, Jan 24: A brutal high of -13°F.
This isn't just "bracing." It’s a legitimate arctic outbreak. When we look at the historical averages, Saint Paul usually sees a high of 24°F in January. We are tracking significantly below that for the next stretch.
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The La Niña Factor
You’ve probably heard meteorologists rambling about La Niña. For us in Saint Paul, a weak La Niña usually means two things: colder-than-average temps and potentially more snow.
Interestingly, while the first half of January 2026 saw some mild-ish days (we even hit the 30s around Jan 6th), the second half is leaning heavily into the "cold" side of the La Niña trade-off. Historically, about 77% of weak La Niña years result in these colder-than-normal stretches for our area.
Snowfall is the other big question mark. We've had a few clippers already—like the New Year's Day snow and the wintry mix on January 4th. But the 30-day outlook suggests we might actually end the month with below-normal precipitation. The air is just getting too cold to hold much moisture. You get those tiny, diamond-dust flakes that don't add up to much on a shovel but make the driveway feel like a skating rink.
Surviving the "Deep Lows"
Honestly, the st paul 30 day forecast isn't just about the weather; it's about how you manage your gear. If you're new to the area, or just a seasoned Minnesotan who forgot how to winter, the upcoming lows of -19°F on Jan 24th require a specific kind of respect.
At those temperatures, frostbite can happen in under 30 minutes on exposed skin.
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You've got to think about your car, too. Lead-acid batteries hate this weather. If your battery is more than three years old, that Monday morning high of -2°F is going to be its ultimate test.
Looking Ahead to February
The long-range signals for early February suggest we might finally break the back of this current cold snap. The transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions (the middle ground between El Niño and La Niña) is expected to start taking hold.
What does that mean for your Valentine's Day plans?
Usually, it means a return to those "mild" 20-degree days. The Almanac suggests February could even be 5°F above average, which feels like a heatwave after you've spent a week looking at negative numbers.
Actionable Insights for the Next 30 Days
- Watch the Wind: On Jan 18th, that 17 mph wind will make 11°F feel like -15°F. Never trust the "high" temperature alone.
- Seal the Gaps: With lows hitting -18°F later this week, even a tiny draft under a door will suck the heat out of your house. Use a rolled-up towel if you have to.
- Check Your Coolant: Ensure your vehicle's antifreeze is rated for at least -30°F.
- Hydrate: Winter air is notoriously dry. If you're feeling sluggish during these dark, cloudy January days (remember, we only get about 5 hours of sun on average), it's probably the humidity—or lack thereof—getting to you.
The st paul 30 day forecast looks like a roller coaster, but that's just life in the 651. Embrace the layers, keep the scraper in the front seat, and remember that every day after the winter solstice brings us about two minutes more of daylight. We’re already gaining time.
Next Steps:
If you need to plan a specific outdoor event, check the hourly wind chill values for Jan 24th specifically, as that is currently projected to be the most dangerous day of the month for outdoor exposure.