St. Louis Mayoral Race: Why the Incumbent Lost and What Happens Next

St. Louis Mayoral Race: Why the Incumbent Lost and What Happens Next

The dust has finally settled. After a high-stakes rematch that basically felt like a referendum on the city’s soul, St. Louis has a new leader. On April 8, 2025, Alderwoman Cara Spencer pulled off a massive upset, defeating incumbent Mayor Tishaura Jones in a landslide that honestly few saw coming in such a lopsided way.

The numbers tell a story of a city that was ready for a change of pace. Spencer secured a whopping 64% of the vote, while Jones trailed behind at roughly 36%. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s a total 180-degree flip from their 2021 face-off, where Jones edged Spencer out by about four percentage points.

How the St. Louis Mayoral Race Was Won (and Lost)

Politics in St. Louis is never simple. It’s a mix of neighborhood loyalty, deep-seated racial dynamics, and the "what have you done for me lately" mentality of voters. While Mayor Jones spent the campaign touting a historic drop in homicides—the lowest in decades—and the fact that her administration successfully allocated every penny of the city's ARPA (American Rescue Plan Act) funds, voters seemed more focused on the day-to-day grind.

Basically, the "small stuff" became the big stuff.

A January snowstorm in 2025 left the city's streets in a mess, and the subsequent pothole explosion didn't help. Combine that with lingering frustrations over trash pickup delays and a perception of government dysfunction, and you’ve got a recipe for an incumbent’s nightmare. Spencer leaned hard into this. Her campaign was built on the idea of "getting back to basics"—fixing the potholes, picking up the trash, and rooting out corruption.

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The Approval Voting Factor

You can't talk about the St. Louis mayoral race without talking about the weird and wonderful world of approval voting.

St. Louis uses a nonpartisan primary system where you can vote for as many candidates as you like. It's designed to stop "vote splitting," where multiple similar candidates cancel each other out. In the March 4 primary, this system was in full effect. Spencer dominated that round too, with an approval rating of 68% compared to Jones’ 33%.

Wait, how do the numbers add up to more than 100%? Simple. Voters could check both boxes.

What this showed was that Spencer was the "consensus" choice. People who liked Michael Butler (who came in third) or Andrew Jones were much more likely to have Spencer as their second choice than the incumbent mayor. By the time the general election rolled around in April, the consolidation was complete.

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The Issues That Actually Swung the Vote

While the headlines were all about crime stats, the ground game was about the "vibe" of the city.

  • Public Safety: Jones pointed to a 20-year low in crime rates during early 2025. Spencer countered by talking about the "feeling" of safety and the need for more police recruitment and traffic enforcement.
  • Infrastructure: Honestly, the potholes might have been the deciding factor. It sounds silly, but when you're late for work because a tire blew out on Grand Ave, you don't care about a "State of Public Safety" report.
  • Trust and Corruption: Spencer made "zero tolerance for corruption" a centerpiece of her platform. This resonated after years of various city departments facing scrutiny.

Jones’ support remained strongest in parts of North St. Louis, but even there, her margins weren't enough to overcome Spencer’s massive lead in the central and southern wards. Turnout was roughly 25.7%, which is pretty typical for a municipal race here, but it wasn't the surge Jones needed to save her seat.

What a Spencer Administration Means for You

So, what happens now? Cara Spencer is moving into the Mayor's office with a mandate that is hard to ignore.

She's promised a "unified Department of Transportation" to fix the disjointed way the city handles street repairs. You’ve probably already heard her talk about North-South MetroLink expansion and redeveloping the Millennium Hotel property. These are big, multi-year projects that will define her first term.

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But more than the big projects, expect a shift in tone. Spencer has focused heavily on "efficiency." If you live in the city, you’re looking for faster responses to CSB (Citizens' Service Bureau) requests and a more predictable city government.

Actionable Insights for St. Louis Residents

  1. Watch the Board of Aldermen: Spencer was an Alderwoman herself, so she knows the room. Watch how she interacts with Board President Megan Green. Their relationship will determine if legislation moves or gets stuck in the usual gridlock.
  2. Track the Infrastructure Spend: Keep an eye on the "Neighborhood Transformation Investments" map. Spencer has promised to continue some of the work started under Jones but with a more hands-on approach to local delivery.
  3. Engage with the "OneStopGov" Portal: The city is trying to modernize. Use the new digital tools to report issues. The more data they have, the harder it is for them to ignore that pothole on your block.

The 2025 election proved that in St. Louis, you can't just talk about the big wins; you have to win the small battles every single day. Jones left the city with more money in the bank and lower crime, but Spencer won because she convinced people she'd make the city actually work again.

Whether she can deliver on that promise is the next big story.


Next Steps for You:
Check your local ward map and identify your current Alderperson. With a new Mayor in office, the power dynamics at City Hall have shifted, and local representatives will be looking to align their neighborhood projects with Spencer’s new "back to basics" agenda.