If you’re just casually glancing at the Atlantic 10 standings right now, you might think you know the story. Dayton is doing the Dayton thing—hovering near the top, grinding out wins, and making UD Arena look like the hardest place to play in the country. Then you have St. Joe’s, the Philly school that always feels like it’s one big shot away from a deep March run but sometimes trips over its own shoelaces in February.
But honestly, the st joseph vs dayton dynamic has shifted. It isn't just a "good vs. great" matchup anymore. It has turned into a tactical chess match that usually ends with someone's heart getting ripped out in the final two minutes.
Take a look at the most recent chaos. On March 14, 2025, in the A-10 tournament quarterfinals, St. Joe’s pulled off a massive upset, knocking off a third-seeded Dayton squad 73-68 in overtime. Erik Reynolds II basically took over that game, scoring 21 points and reminding everyone why you never count out a Hawk Hill team in the postseason. That win didn't just end Dayton's tournament; it changed how these two teams look at each other.
The Mental Game and Recent Scars
When these two meet up on January 24, 2026, at Hagan Arena, the vibes are going to be heavy. You've got a Dayton team that’s currently sitting at 13-4 overall (and a perfect 4-0 in conference play as of mid-January), but they’re still carrying the weight of that overtime loss from last March.
Dayton is good. Kinda scary good, actually. They lead the A-10 in forcing turnovers, which is a nightmare for a St. Joe's team that sometimes gets a little loose with the rock. The Flyers are averaging nearly 10 steals a game. De’Shayne Montgomery is a straight-up thief on the perimeter, ranking in the top 10 nationally for steals. If you're a St. Joe's guard, you aren't just worried about the hoop; you're worried about the guy hiding in your jersey.
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On the other side, St. Joe’s (11-7, 3-2 A-10) is riding a three-game win streak. They just escaped Richmond with a two-point win and found a way to outlast Duquesne in overtime earlier this month. They’re gritty. They don’t always look pretty—shooting about 42% from the floor—but they have this weird habit of staying in games they have no business being in.
The Injury Factor Nobody Is Talking About
Dayton is hurting. Let’s be real about it. Coming into this week, the Flyers were down some serious bodies. Jordan Derkack, their fifth-leading scorer and a guy who does a lot of the "dirty work" stuff, went down with a lower-body injury against George Washington. Add that to the fact that Jaron McKie is out for the season and Amaël L’Etang has been dealing with lingering issues, and suddenly that deep Dayton bench looks a little thin.
Coach Anthony Grant has been quoted saying "what we've got is enough," but you have to wonder. Playing in the Hagan Arena with a shortened rotation is a recipe for a leg-weary second half.
Keys to the Matchup: St Joseph vs Dayton
If you’re watching this game, keep an eye on these specific battles because they’ll decide the outcome way before the final buzzer.
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- The Derek Simpson Milestone: Simpson just hit his 1,000th career point. He’s the engine for the Hawks. He’s averaging nearly 12 points and over 5 assists. If Dayton can’t keep him out of the paint, their defense collapses.
- The Turnover Trap: Dayton forces 16.6 turnovers per game. St. Joe's gives it up about 12 times a night. If that number for the Hawks creeps up to 15 or 16, the game is over. Period.
- The Glass: St. Joe's actually out-rebounds their opponents by about 4.5 boards a game. Dayton, surprisingly, has a negative rebounding margin (-2.4). If Justice Ajogbor and Dasear Haskins can dominate the boards, they’ll get the second-chance points they desperately need to offset their shooting slumps.
- Javon Bennett vs. The World: Bennett is leading the Flyers with 16.6 points per game. He’s small, quick, and a total pest. St. Joe’s needs a "Bennett Stopper," and right now, it’s unclear who that is.
Looking at the Numbers (The Non-Boring Version)
Dayton’s defense is legit. They hold teams to 69 points. St. Joe's averages 74. Something has to give. Usually, in these st joseph vs dayton games, the pace slows down to a crawl in the second half. St. Joe's wants to run a bit more, but Dayton’s ability to control the tempo is legendary in the A-10.
Interestingly, St. Joe's is shooting a miserable 27.7% from three-point range this season. That’s... not great. If they can’t find their stroke at home, they’re going to be forced to challenge Dayton’s bigs at the rim, which is exactly where Dayton wants them.
Why This Game Matters for the A-10 Seedings
We’re in the middle of January. This is where the pretenders start to fall off. Right now, George Mason and Saint Louis are pacing the conference, but Dayton is right there. A loss to St. Joe’s would be a "Quad 3" or "Quad 4" blemish depending on how the NET rankings shake out, and that’s the kind of thing that keeps a team out of the At-Large conversation in March.
For the Hawks, a win here is a resume-builder. They need a signature win to prove that last year’s tournament upset wasn't a fluke. They’ve got the home-court advantage, the momentum of a win streak, and a healthy roster.
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Actionable Insights for the Upcoming Game
If you're following this rivalry, keep these points in mind for the next tip-off:
- Watch the First 5 Minutes: St. Joe's tends to start slow. If Dayton jumps out to a 10-2 lead in Philly, the crowd gets quiet, and the Flyers' defense becomes suffocating.
- Monitor the Injury Report: Check the status of Jordan Derkack and Amaël L’Etang. If they aren't at 100%, Dayton’s defensive pressure will inevitably drop in the final 10 minutes of the game.
- The Free Throw Factor: St. Joe's is actually a solid free-throw shooting team (76%). In a close rivalry game, this usually ends up being the difference. If the Hawks can get to the line 20+ times, they win.
- Hagan Arena Magic: It’s a small, loud, and weird gym. Historically, Dayton has struggled there more than they should. Never underestimate the "Hawk Will Never Die" energy when the game gets tight.
This st joseph vs dayton clash is more than just another game on the calendar. It’s a collision of styles—Philly grit vs. Ohio discipline. Whether it's a blowout or another overtime thriller, it's the kind of basketball that makes the Atlantic 10 one of the most underrated conferences in the country.
To get the most out of the upcoming matchup, pay close attention to the turnover battle in the first half. If the Hawks can keep it under 6, they are in a prime position to pull off the upset. Conversely, if Dayton’s Javon Bennett finds his rhythm early from beyond the arc, it’s going to be a long night for the Philly faithful.