Honestly, walking into Madison Square Garden lately feels different. The air is heavier, but in a good way. For a couple of decades, being a St. John’s fan was basically an exercise in nostalgia—talking about Chris Mullin’s jumper or Lou Carnesecca’s sweaters because the present was, well, pretty bleak. But the St. John's NCAA tournament conversation has shifted from "if" to "how deep can they go?" It’s wild how fast things change when you hire a Hall of Famer who refuses to lose.
The Rick Pitino Effect and the End of the Drought
Rick Pitino didn't just come to Queens to retire in his home city; he came to burn the old blueprints. After a 25-year wait that felt more like a century, St. John’s finally broke through in 2025. They didn't just stumble into the Big Dance, either. They kicked the door down by winning the Big East Tournament at the Garden, beating Creighton 82-66 in a game where they literally couldn't miss—hitting 14 straight shots at one point.
That 31-5 season in 2024-25 wasn't a fluke. It was a message. For years, the St. John's NCAA tournament history was a list of "almosts" and "what-ifs." Before the 2025 run, the program hadn't won a game in the tournament since 2000. Think about that. We went through the entire rise and fall of several social media platforms before the Johnnies saw a Round of 32.
Even though that 2025 run ended in a frustrating Round of 32 loss to Arkansas, the ceiling has been raised. The 2025-26 squad isn't looking for a participation trophy. They want the whole thing.
Building a Monster in the Transfer Portal
If you aren't paying attention to how Pitino builds rosters, you’re missing the most aggressive GM work in college hoops. This isn't the old-school "recruit a kid and wait four years" model. It's a "win right now" assembly line.
Take Zuby Ejiofor. The guy is a monster. He’s the anchor. Last year, he was a force, and now he’s the Preseason Big East Player of the Year. He’s the rare piece of continuity in a system that cycles through talent like a New York City subway station. Beside him, you’ve got a transfer class that pundits have ranked as the best in the country.
- Ian Jackson: The Bronx's own. Coming over from North Carolina, he’s a walking bucket who actually cares about playing defense.
- Bryce Hopkins: A massive addition from Providence. If his health holds up, he’s an All-American caliber wing who creates mismatches every single night.
- Dillon Mitchell: The Texas/Cincinnati transfer brings the kind of elite athleticism that changes how you play transition defense.
It’s a "loaded" roster, but talent alone doesn't win in March. We’ve seen plenty of talented teams fold when the lights get bright in the St. John's NCAA tournament spotlight. The difference here is the "Pitino factor." He’s got these guys playing a brand of "attacking defense" that forces teams into late-shot clock desperation. It's exhausting to watch, let alone play against.
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The Point Guard Question
There is a bit of a gamble happening right now, though. The Johnnies lost Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith—two guys who basically shared the brain of the team last year. Now, the keys have been handed to guys like Dylan Darling, the Big Sky Player of the Year from Idaho State.
Is he a high-major starter? Some skeptics say no. Pitino says yes. On a team with this many scoring options, Darling doesn't need to be Kyrie Irving; he just needs to be a delivery driver. Get the ball to the shooters. Don't turn it over. If he can do that, the Red Storm offense—which has shifted more toward movement and cuts rather than just isolation—will be lethal.
Why This March Feels Different for Queens
In the past, St. John’s would get to the tournament and look like they were just happy to be there. The "New York's Team" moniker felt like a marketing slogan rather than a reality. Not anymore. When you look at the St. John's NCAA tournament outlook for 2026, you’re looking at a team that expects a Top 3 seed.
They are playing 13 games at Madison Square Garden this season. That’s not a schedule; it’s a residency. By the time the tournament starts, this team will be so battle-tested by the Big East grind that a neutral site game in some random city will feel like a vacation.
But let's be real for a second. The defense is the question mark. Last year’s team was elite on the perimeter. This year? The personnel is more offensive-minded. If they can’t find that "Pitino grit" on the defensive end, they might end up in a shootout they can't win. You’ve seen it a million times: a hot-shooting 12-seed catches a high-powered offense on a cold night, and suddenly the "Title Contender" is heading home early.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Red Storm
A lot of casual fans think St. John’s is just a "Portal Team" with no soul. That’s a lazy take. If you watch the way Sadiku Ibine Ayo or Ruben Prey play, you see the development. These guys are the "glue." They aren't the names in the headlines, but they are the reason the stars get open looks.
Also, don't sleep on the freshman Kelvin Odih. Pitino usually prefers veterans, but Odih has that physical, nasty defensive streak that usually earns you minutes in a Pitino system. He's the kind of guy who comes off the bench in a tournament game, grabs three offensive boards, hits a corner three, and changes the whole momentum.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're following the Red Storm's path to the tournament, here is how to track their progress like a pro:
Watch the "Kill" Stats
Pitino tracks "kills"—which are three defensive stops in a row. If St. John's is racking up 7 or more kills a game, they are a Final Four threat. If they are letting teams shoot 40% from deep, they are an early-exit risk.
Monitor Bryce Hopkins’ Minutes
His health is the X-factor. If he's playing 30+ minutes without a limp by February, the Big East is in trouble. He is the bridge between their "good" lineups and their "elite" ones.
The MSG Factor
Keep an eye on their record at the Garden. They were 12-0 there last year. Protection of the home court is the best indicator of a team's mental toughness.
The St. John's NCAA tournament story isn't just about basketball; it's about a city getting its swagger back. We aren't talking about the 1985 Final Four anymore because the 2026 version finally has the pieces to make its own history.
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To stay ahead of the curve on their tournament seeding, keep a close eye on the NET rankings starting in late January. Specifically, look at their "Quadrant 1" wins. If they can sweep their MSG residency against the likes of UConn and Creighton, they won't just be in the tournament; they'll be the team nobody wants to see in their bracket.