You’ve probably heard the chatter by now. People are calling Iowa a "ruby red" lock, a place where the political dust has settled for good. But if you actually look at what just happened with the most recent special election in Iowa, that narrative starts to look a little flimsy. Honestly, the ground is shifting underfoot in ways that the national pundits usually miss because they’re too busy staring at 30,000-foot polling data.
Politics in the Hawkeye State used to be about the "Iowa Nice" middle ground. Lately, it’s felt more like a tug-of-war over supermajorities. This past December, we saw a massive moment when Renee Hardman took the win in Senate District 16. It wasn't just a win; it was a 40-point blowout. That single special election basically slammed the door on a Republican supermajority in the state senate.
Why does that matter to you? Because without that supermajority, the GOP can't just rubber-stamp every single one of Governor Kim Reynolds’ appointees. They need at least one Democrat to say "yes." That’s a huge change in how the state actually functions day-to-day.
The Special Election in Iowa That Broke the Streak
When state Senator Claire Celsi passed away in October 2025, it left a massive hole in the Des Moines suburbs. Republicans saw a path to reclaim that two-thirds control. They put up Lucas Loftin, a data manager who really pounded the pavement. But Hardman, a West Des Moines City Council member and CEO of Lutheran Services of Iowa, didn't just win—she made history as the first Black woman elected to the Iowa Senate.
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This wasn't an isolated fluke, either. If you look at the 2025 track record, Iowa Democrats have been overperforming in these "off-cycle" moments.
- January 2025: Mike Zimmer flipped a seat in a district that went hard for Trump in 2024.
- August 2025: Catelin Drey won big in a Sioux City-based district that was supposed to be a Republican stronghold.
- December 2025: Hardman secures the seat, leaving the Senate count at 33 Republicans and 17 Democrats.
You see the pattern? While the general elections often go red, the special election in Iowa has become a playground for high-energy Democratic turnout. It’s a classic "enthusiasm gap" situation. When the stakes are localized and the timing is weird—like a Tuesday in the middle of the holidays—the side with the most motivated base wins.
What’s Coming in 2026?
We aren't done. Not by a long shot. Because Renee Hardman had to resign her City Council seat to head to the statehouse, we now have a West Des Moines City Council special election set for February 17, 2026. Polk County officials also just confirmed a Mitchellville City Council special election for that same day.
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These local races are the "canary in the coal mine" for the 2026 midterms. We have a massive U.S. Senate race looming where Joni Ernst's seat is up for grabs. Names like Zach Wahls and Chris Henry are already circulating on the Democratic side, while Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin are the big names to watch for the GOP.
The Logistics Nobody Tells You
If you're planning on voting in a special election in Iowa, the rules are a bit of a moving target. Here’s the reality of how these things are scheduled:
- The Governor’s Call: Once a vacancy happens, the Governor has to call the election within five days if the legislature is in session.
- The Tuesday Rule: All special elections have to happen on a Tuesday. No exceptions.
- The Blackout Dates: You can't hold a special election within four weeks of a primary or general election. It keeps the poll workers from losing their minds.
- Registration: You can register at the polls in Iowa, which is a lifesaver for these "surprise" elections. Just bring a photo ID and proof of residence.
Why These "Small" Races Actually Matter
Most people ignore a special election in Iowa because they think it doesn't change the "big picture." They're wrong. In 2026, the Iowa House is sitting at a 66-34 split. That’s an airtight supermajority for the GOP. But the Senate? That’s where the friction is.
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When a special election flips a seat or prevents a supermajority, it changes the "vibe" in the Lucas Building. It changes which bills get out of committee. It changes how much the minority party can use the "filibuster" or procedural delays to force compromises on things like property tax relief or school funding.
Honestly, Iowa is currently a laboratory for what happens when a state shifts from "swing state" to "red state" and then experiences a "special election snapback." The 2026 legislative session just kicked off on January 12, and you can already feel the tension. Republicans are pushing hard on property taxes, while Democrats are using their new "supermajority-busting" leverage to demand more for childcare and education.
Actionable Steps for Iowa Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve and not get caught off guard by a surprise ballot, here’s what you should actually do:
- Check your status: Go to the Iowa Secretary of State’s website (Paul Pate’s office) and make sure your registration is active. Even if you voted in 2024, check anyway.
- Watch the local news: Special elections are often announced with very little fanfare. If you live in West Des Moines or Mitchellville, Feb 17 is your next big date.
- Request mail-in ballots early: For special elections, the window to request an absentee ballot is often shorter than for general elections. Don't wait.
- Look at the school board: Special elections aren't just for the statehouse. Vacancies on school boards or city councils can happen any time, and they often have more impact on your daily life than who sits in DC.
The special election in Iowa is no longer just a footnote. It's the front line of a changing political map. Whether you're looking at the historic win by Renee Hardman or the upcoming February local races, these moments are defining what the 2026 midterms will actually look like. Keep your eyes on the "off-cycle" dates—that's where the real surprises live.