The stock market is doing that thing again. You know, where it teases a massive, round-number milestone just to pull back and leave everyone staring at their screens in frustration. Today, January 15, 2026, the S&P 500 is basically playing a high-stakes game of "the floor is lava" with the 7,000 mark.
It’s close.
Like, "within a few good trading hours" close.
But as we saw in today's action, crossing that finish line is proving to be a lot harder than the bulls predicted when we rang in the New Year. The index managed to snap a pesky two-day losing streak, finishing up about 0.3% to land around 6,944. It’s a win, sure. But honestly, it feels a bit like a participation trophy given how much the market has been sweating lately.
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What’s Actually Moving the S&P 500 Today News
The big story today wasn't actually on Wall Street—it was in Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) basically saved the day for the tech sector. They dropped some quarterly numbers that made everyone breathe a sigh of relief, reporting a 35% surge in profit. More importantly, they’re planning to dump $56 billion into capital expenditures this year.
When the world’s biggest chipmaker says they’re spending that kind of cash, it’s a massive "all-clear" signal for the AI trade.
Nvidia rode that wave, climbing over 2% to close near $187. It’s funny because just yesterday, everyone was panic-selling chip stocks because of reports that Chinese customs were blocking Nvidia’s H200 chips. One day you’re the villain, the next day you’re the hero. That’s the 2026 market for you.
- TSMC (TSM): Up 4.4% after promising to spend more on AI than most small countries' GDPs.
- Nvidia (NVDA): Gained 2.1% as investors realized the "AI is dead" narrative was maybe a bit premature.
- Applied Materials (AMAT): Jumped over 5% as the equipment makers got a boost from the TSMC spending spree.
On the flip side, the banks are kinda dragging the chain. Wells Fargo tumbled about 4.6% after a messy earnings report that showed their profit and revenue weren't exactly what the doctors ordered. Citigroup and Bank of America didn't fare much better. It seems the "Goldilocks" environment for banks—where rates are high enough for profit but low enough to avoid defaults—is getting a little wobbly.
The Round Number Curse
Jonathan Krinsky over at BTIG Research pointed out something pretty interesting today. He noted that four out of the last five "1,000-point" milestones for the S&P 500 came with a side of turbulence. People get psychological about these numbers.
7,000 isn't just a number; it’s a target.
When we get this close, traders start taking profits. They get nervous. They wonder if the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (that tax relief package from last summer) has already been priced in. It probably has.
We're also dealing with some weird macro distractions. You've got the ongoing drama with the Federal Reserve investigation into Jerome Powell, plus those weird headlines about Greenland and the military action in Venezuela. It’s a lot for a market to digest while trying to hit a record high.
Is the AI Supercycle Still Real?
J.P. Morgan Global Research thinks so. They’re still forecasting double-digit gains for the year, largely because they see an "AI supercycle" driving earnings growth of 13% to 15%.
But here’s the thing: the market is getting incredibly top-heavy.
If you look at the equal-weighted S&P 500—where every company counts the same regardless of size—it’s not performing nearly as well as the headline number. We’re in a "winner-takes-all" dynamic. If Nvidia or Microsoft sneezes, the whole index catches a cold.
We’re also seeing "sticky inflation" around 3%. The Fed wants it at 2%, but it just won't budge. This puts the S&P 500 in a weird spot. If the economy stays too hot, the Fed can't cut rates as much as people want. If it cools too fast, we hit that 35% recession probability J.P. Morgan warned about.
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Winners and Losers from Today's Session
While the index was green, it wasn't a party for everyone.
Western Digital (WDC) has been an absolute monster lately, up over 300% on a one-year basis. Today was just another day at the office for the storage play. Meanwhile, the "superapp" sector took a bruising. Grab Holdings (GRAB) slid over 5% because apparently, investing in AI logistics isn't enough to satisfy investors who want to see actual, cold-hard cash flow right now.
- Tech: Rebounding thanks to TSMC and the "spending is back" narrative.
- Financials: Hurting from mixed Q4 earnings and political talk about capping credit card interest rates at 10%.
- Consumer Discretionary: A bit of a mixed bag; people are still spending, but they’re getting picky.
How to Handle This Volatility
Look, the 7,000 level is going to happen. Whether it’s tomorrow or next month doesn't really change the long-term math. But for right now, the smart money seems to be rotating slightly.
Bessemer Trust is pushing a "disciplined overweight" to high-quality companies with durable advantages. Basically, they're saying: don't just buy the hype, buy the companies that actually make the things the hype is built on.
What you've got to watch for in the coming days is the 10-year Treasury yield. It’s hovering around 4.18%. If that starts creeping back toward 4.5%, expect the S&P 500 to pull back from 7,000 faster than you can say "bear market."
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
- Check your tech weighting: If 40% of your portfolio is in three stocks, today's volatility is a reminder to maybe—just maybe—rebalance a tiny bit.
- Watch the dollar: A weakening dollar is usually good for the S&P 500’s multinationals (think Apple or Coke), as it makes their overseas earnings look better.
- Keep an eye on the VIX: The "fear gauge" ticked up to 16.75 recently. It’s not "panic" level, but it’s definitely "keep your seatbelt fastened" level.
- Diversify into value: With the spread between growth and value at historic highs, some of those boring dividend payers are starting to look like a bargain compared to the 24x P/E multiples on the broader index.
The bull market is entering its fourth year. History says these things don't die of old age; they die because of a shock. Right now, the market is scanning the horizon for that shock, but until it finds one, the path of least resistance still feels—ever so slightly—upward. Stay cautious around these big round numbers, because they usually bite before they let you in.