Honestly, if you looked at the Premier League table right now, you might be tempted to just look away. It isn't pretty. But the upcoming Southampton vs West Ham clash is basically the "Desperation Derby" of 2026. We’ve got two historic clubs staring down the barrel of the Championship, and the vibes are, frankly, a bit chaotic.
West Ham is sitting in 18th place with a measly 14 points after 21 matches. That’s three wins all season. Seriously. Southampton isn't even in the top-flight conversation in some charts because they’ve been bouncing between the divisions, but as of mid-January 2026, the stakes for both these squads are survival, plain and simple.
The Lucas Paqueta Drama is Killing West Ham
You can’t talk about West Ham right now without mentioning the elephant in the room. Or rather, the star player who wants to leave the room. Lucas Paqueta is reportedly pushing for a move to Flamengo. He’s even asked not to play. Imagine being a Hammers fan right now—your best creative spark wants out while the ship is sinking.
Graham Potter has stepped into the dugout to try and fix things, but it’s like trying to plug a dam with a toothpick. He’s been messing around with a back five, yet the results haven't followed. The recent 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest was a gut punch. Tomas Soucek was fuming after that one, calling a penalty decision "a joke" and comparing the officiating to basketball. You can feel the frustration boiling over.
The Hammers did manage to scrape past QPR in the FA Cup thanks to a goal from their new man, Castellanos, but the league is a different beast entirely. Without Paqueta’s vision, they look stagnant.
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Southampton’s Identity Crisis Under Simon Rusk
On the other side, Southampton is in a weird spot. Ivan Juric is out, and Simon Rusk is holding the fort as interim boss. It feels like the Saints have been stuck in a loop of "good performances but no points."
Remember the Boxing Day clash? Southampton absolutely dominated the first half. Paul Onuachu had about four clear-cut chances and missed them all. Then, Jarrod Bowen—who is basically carrying West Ham on his back these days—pokes one in, and the Saints lose 1-0. It’s been the story of their season. They play some nice stuff down the wings with Kyle Walker-Peters and Yukinari Sugawara, but they couldn't finish a sandwich at the moment.
Key Stats That’ll Make You Wince
- West Ham's Clean Sheets: Zero in their last five.
- Southampton's Penalty Record: They've conceded 9 penalties this season. That’s a league high.
- The Bowen Factor: Jarrod Bowen just hit his 100th league goal in English football. He’s the only reason they aren't already buried.
The James Ward-Prowse Factor
This is the one that still feels wrong. Seeing James Ward-Prowse in a claret and blue shirt against the Saints? It’s like seeing your ex at a party with a guy who’s wearing a slightly worse version of your favorite jacket. He made over 400 appearances for Southampton. He is Southampton.
Now, he’s the guy West Ham relies on for set-pieces. If the Hammers win this, it’ll probably be a JWP corner finding the head of Max Kilman or Niclas Füllkrug. The irony is thick enough to choke on.
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Southampton fans will be hoping Flynn Downes—who is back from suspension—can boss the midfield against his former club. It’s a messy web of "ex-player" storylines that adds a layer of spite to an already tense game.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
People think this will be a boring, low-scoring affair because both teams are struggling. I disagree. When two teams are this desperate, the tactics usually go out the window by the 70th minute.
Southampton’s defense is porous. They haven't kept a clean sheet in 13 matches. West Ham’s defense isn't much better, especially with Max Kilman dealing with niggling injuries and Aaron Wan-Bissaka being a doubt. We aren't looking at a tactical masterclass here. We’re looking at a 90-minute panic attack.
Predicted Lineups for the Next Clash
West Ham (4-3-3): Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Kilman, Todibo, Scarles; Soucek, Ward-Prowse, Paqueta (if he actually shows up); Kudus, Bowen, Füllkrug.
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Southampton (5-3-2): Ramsdale; Walker-Peters, Stephens, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Manning; Downes, Fernandes, Dibling; Sulemana, Archer.
Keep an eye on Tyler Dibling. The kid has spark. If Rusk gives him the freedom to run at Emerson or whoever Potter puts at left-back, he could cause real problems.
Final Thoughts for the Fans
If you're betting on this or just watching for the drama, look at the "Both Teams to Score" market. Neither of these teams can defend to save their lives.
Actionable Insights for the Weekend:
- Watch the Team Sheets: If Paqueta isn't in the squad, West Ham’s creative output drops by about 40%.
- Set-Piece Threat: James Ward-Prowse vs. a Southampton team that is historically bad at defending corners. You do the math.
- The Early Goal: If Southampton scores first, the London Stadium will turn toxic very quickly. The pressure on Potter is immense.
This isn't just another game. It's about who gets to keep their dignity and who starts looking up flights to Plymouth and Hull for next season.
Next Steps for Followers:
- Check the final fitness test results for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Paul Onuachu on Saturday morning.
- Monitor the transfer news surrounding Lucas Paqueta; a Friday departure would completely change the Hammers' tactical setup.
- Review the referee assignment, as both teams have been vocal about VAR decisions impacting their recent losses.