Honestly, if you're looking at the 14 day weather forecast South Lake Tahoe right now, you're probably trying to time that perfect powder day or just making sure you don't get stuck on Highway 50 behind a spin-out. It's mid-January 2026. The Sierra is doing its typical mid-winter dance where one day it’s a "bluebird" paradise and the next it’s a total whiteout.
Currently, as of January 17, things are actually pretty chill. It’s about 24°F outside right now with a bit of a bite—feels more like 18°F thanks to a light southeast wind. But if you're planning a trip over the next two weeks, you need to look past the immediate "sunny" icons on your phone.
The Immediate Outlook: Sun, Then a Shift
For the next few days, South Lake Tahoe is leaning into its reputation for beautiful winter sunshine. Today, Saturday, we’re looking at a high of 46°F and a low of 19°F. It’s sunny, though some clouds will move in tonight.
Sunday, January 18, actually bumps up a bit. We might hit 51°F. That’s almost warm for January at 6,200 feet! But don't let the "partly sunny" labels fool you into leaving your heavy parka at home. The humidity is sitting high at 62%, and once that sun dips behind Mt. Tallac, the temperature drops like a rock to around 23°F.
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Here’s the breakdown for the early part of the week:
Monday and Tuesday stay crisp. Highs will hover between 46°F and 49°F, with lows staying steady in the low 20s. It’s perfect "groomer" weather for Heavenly or Sierra-at-Tahoe. The wind is staying low—mostly under 7 mph—which means the wind chill won't be much of a factor for the mid-mountain lifts.
When is the Snow Coming Back?
The pattern starts to shift as we move deeper into the 14-day window.
Wednesday, January 21, through Friday, January 23, brings more clouds. We’re looking at "partly sunny" days with highs around 45°F to 49°F.
The real action is currently eyeing Sunday, January 25.
Right now, the models are showing a mix of rain and snow with a 25% chance of precipitation. The wind is expected to pick up too, gusting from the southwest at 8 mph. While a 25% chance doesn't sound like "Snowmaggedon," in the Sierra, these systems can beef up quickly. Monday, January 26, keeps that trend going with a 20% chance of snow and mostly cloudy skies.
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Navigating the 14 Day Weather Forecast South Lake Tahoe
Kinda crazy how much the weather dictates life here. If you’re coming from the Bay Area or Sacramento, you’ve gotta remember that the "lake level" forecast is just one part of the story.
- The Elevation Gap: While South Lake Tahoe (the city) might be 46°F, the top of the Dipper Express at Heavenly is going to be significantly colder. Always check the ridgetop winds.
- Current Base Depths: Kirkwood is currently reporting a 51-inch base with 160 inches for the season so far. Sierra-at-Tahoe is sitting at about 57 inches at the upper levels. This means even if we don't get a massive dump in the next week, the coverage is solid.
- The Icy Morning Factor: With daytime highs hitting the high 40s and night lows in the teens, we are in a classic "freeze-thaw" cycle. Roads that look wet at 4:00 PM will be black ice by 7:00 PM.
Historical Context: Is This Normal?
January is historically the snowiest month for the basin, averaging about 44 inches. We’ve had a few years, like the legendary 2017, where it dumped over 200 inches in a single month. This year feels a bit more "standard Sierra." We had some heavy snow earlier in the month (remember that New Year's storm?), and now we're in a bit of a mid-month lull.
Wanderlog and WeatherSpark data show that January highs usually average around 41°F, so this upcoming week’s 46°F to 51°F stretch is actually a few degrees warmer than the long-term average. It’s great for apre-ski on the deck, but it does mean the snow might get a little "mashed potato-y" by the afternoon.
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Survival Tips for the Next Two Weeks
If you're heading up, honestly, just be prepared for the variability.
- Pack Layers: You'll want a base layer for the 19°F mornings, but you might find yourself stripping down to a hoodie if you're hiking around Emerald Bay in that 51°F Sunday sun.
- Check the Passes: Even if it’s sunny in town, Echo Summit (Hwy 50) and Carson Pass (Hwy 88) can have their own microclimates.
- Sunscreen is Non-Negotiable: With those sunny days and the reflection off the lake and snow, you’ll get fried faster than you think.
The 14 day weather forecast South Lake Tahoe suggests a beautiful, mostly dry window for the next week, followed by a potential return to winter storms as we head into the final days of January. It’s the perfect time for anyone who prefers "bluebird" skiing over battling a blizzard.
Keep a close eye on that January 25-26 window. If that southwest flow picks up moisture, those "slight chances" of snow could easily turn into a powder alert.
Pro Tip: If you're looking for the best snow quality during this warm spell, head to Kirkwood. Their higher base elevation and north-facing slopes tend to keep the powder stash cold long after the sun has turned the rest of the lake's snow into slush.
Before you load up the car, make sure your tires are rated for snow (M+S or 3PMSF) and you've got your chains in the trunk—even if the forecast looks clear, Caltrans can be sticklers if a stray cloud decides to dump at the summit. Check the Caltrans QuickMap app before you hit the road to see if there are any chain controls or roadwork delays on your route.