Politics in the Palmetto State is never quiet. If you’ve been following the noise lately, you know the race to succeed Governor Henry McMaster is already turning into a high-stakes brawl. The latest south carolina gubernatorial primary poll data is out, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mess for some of the establishment favorites. While the primary isn't until June 9, 2026, the early numbers are painting a picture of a fractured GOP and a Democratic party trying to find its footing in a state that hasn't gone blue for the governor's mansion since Jim Hodges back in 1998.
Let’s get real about what these numbers actually mean. Most people look at a poll and see a horse race. They see who is winning today and assume that’s the end of it. But in South Carolina, the primary is often just the setup for the real drama: the runoff.
Breaking Down the Latest South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary Poll
The most recent data from a Stratus Intelligence survey (conducted January 7-9, 2026) shows Congresswoman Nancy Mace carving out a lead. She’s sitting at 23%, which puts her four points ahead of Attorney General Alan Wilson, who is holding steady at 19%. Now, four points might not sound like a landslide—and it isn't—but it’s outside the 3.7% margin of error. That makes Mace the "clear" frontrunner for the moment.
But here is the thing: nobody is even close to the 50% needed to win outright.
- Nancy Mace: 23%
- Alan Wilson: 19%
- Pamela Evette: 14%
- Ralph Norman: 11%
- Undecided: 32%
See that last number? Nearly a third of likely Republican voters have no idea who they’re picking yet. That’s a massive block of people who could swing this race in any direction once the TV ads really start saturating the Upstate and the Lowcountry.
The Problem for the Establishment
Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette has a problem. Despite serving alongside McMaster since 2019 and reportedly spending over $2 million already, she’s stuck in third place. In South Carolina, being the "heir apparent" doesn't always guarantee a smooth ride. Voters here have a bit of a rebellious streak—just look at how Nikki Haley rose from obscurity to the governorship in 2010.
Alan Wilson, who has been the state's top prosecutor since 2011, is facing a "soft support" issue. The Stratus poll suggested that most of his voters say they "probably" support him rather than "definitely." That’s a dangerous place to be when Nancy Mace is drawing double-digit "voter enthusiasm" numbers. If your supporters aren't excited, they might stay home if it rains on election day.
Why This South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary Poll Is Actually About One Man
We have to talk about the elephant in the room. Or rather, the Mar-a-Lago resident.
According to the Winthrop Poll from late 2025, nearly 80% of South Carolina Republicans say a Donald Trump endorsement is a major factor in their decision. Right now, everyone is vying for that "MAGA" seal of approval. Mace has had a rocky relationship with the former president in the past, but she’s been leaning hard into his policies lately. Ralph Norman, meanwhile, has been one of Trump's most vocal allies in Congress.
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If Trump picks a horse in this race, these poll numbers will likely evaporate and reorganize overnight. It’s the ultimate wild card in South Carolina politics.
The Democratic Side of the Coin
On the other side of the aisle, the south carolina gubernatorial primary poll landscape is much quieter, but not empty. State Representative Jermaine Johnson and trial attorney Mullins McLeod are the names to watch.
The challenge for Democrats remains the same as it has been for decades: turnout in a "Solid Republican" state. National groups like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball already have this race pegged as "Safe Republican." But primaries are where the soul of the party is decided. For South Carolina Democrats, the 2026 primary will be a test of whether they want a firebrand progressive or a moderate who can try to peel off suburban voters in places like Charleston and Greenville.
What Most People Get Wrong About SC Runoffs
In many states, if you get 40% of the vote and your opponent gets 30%, you win. Not here. If no one hits 50% plus one vote on June 9, the top two finishers head to a runoff two weeks later on June 23.
This is where the math gets weird.
In a runoff, the person who came in second during the first round often wins. Why? Because the supporters of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place candidates usually consolidate behind the "not-the-frontrunner" choice. If Mace stays at 23% and Wilson stays at 19%, the real question is: where do Pamela Evette’s and Ralph Norman’s voters go? If they both break for Wilson, Mace’s lead vanishes instantly.
Surprising Details in the Data
One thing that jumped out in the recent Stratus Intelligence report was name recognition. Mace is at a staggering 91%. That’s higher than the Attorney General and the Lieutenant Governor. In politics, name ID is the most expensive thing to buy. Mace has it for free, largely due to her frequent national media appearances.
However, high name recognition is a double-edged sword. It usually means people have already made up their minds about you. If you have 91% recognition but only 23% support, you might have a "ceiling." The candidates with lower recognition, like Josh Kimbrell, have more "room to grow" as they introduce themselves to the 32% of undecided voters.
Actionable Insights for Voters and Observers
If you’re trying to make sense of the 2026 race, don't just stare at the top-line percentages. Here is how to actually read the next south carolina gubernatorial primary poll that hits your feed:
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- Check the "Definitely" vs. "Probably" support. If a candidate has high "probably" support, they are vulnerable to negative ad campaigns.
- Look at the Undecideds. If the undecided number isn't shrinking as we get closer to the March 16-30 filing window, it means the current field hasn't closed the deal with the public.
- Watch the Fundraising Gap. Nancy Mace has reportedly been shattering records with grassroots donors. In a primary, small-dollar donors often correlate with "enthusiasm," which is a better predictor of turnout than general name recognition.
- The "Third Man" Factor. Watch Ralph Norman. If he stays in the race, he pulls from the same "Freedom Caucus" base that Mace needs. If he drops out, his 11% likely moves to whoever is seen as the most "anti-establishment" survivor.
The reality is that South Carolina’s primary is a marathon, not a sprint. We are still in the "shadow boxing" phase where candidates are testing messages and building war chests. But with Nancy Mace holding a slim lead and the establishment candidates struggling to find traction, the 2026 cycle is shaping up to be one of the most volatile in recent memory.
Keep an eye on the filing deadline in late March. Once the official list is set, the real polling—the kind that accounts for the final list of names on the ballot—will tell us if Mace's lead is a temporary spike or a permanent shift in the state's political gravity. For now, the Palmetto State is wide open.