The African National Congress (ANC) isn't just a political party in South Africa. It’s a myth, a memory, and for thirty years, it was essentially the state itself. But things changed. In May 2024, the world watched as the South Africa ANC party slipped below the 50% mark for the first time since Nelson Mandela flashed that iconic smile in 1994. They hit roughly 40%. That’s a massive drop from the days they used to command a two-thirds majority.
It’s tempting to say it happened overnight. It didn’t.
If you’ve been paying attention to the streets of Johannesburg or the townships in the Eastern Cape, you’ve seen the cracks widening for over a decade. People got tired. They got tired of the lights going out—what locals call "loadshedding"—and they got tired of seeing high-ranking officials drive Mercedes-Benzes while 33% of the country can't find a job. Honestly, the 2024 election result was less of a shock and more of an inevitability.
The Long Walk to a Coalition Government
For decades, the South Africa ANC party relied on its "liberation credentials." If you fought the apartheid regime, people voted for you. It was a debt of gratitude. But gratitude has a shelf life, especially when your kids are hungry.
The party of Mandela, Sisulu, and Tambo found itself forced into something called the Government of National Unity (GNU). It sounds fancy, but it basically means they had to invite their biggest rivals, the Democratic Alliance (DA), into the cabinet just to keep the doors open. President Cyril Ramaphosa had to make a choice: go left toward the radical parties like the EFF or MK, or go center-right with the DA. He chose the latter.
This wasn't just a tactical move. It was a survival instinct.
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Jacob Zuma, the former president who was once the heartbeat of the ANC, became its biggest nightmare. He launched the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party just months before the election. He didn't just steal votes; he gutted the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal. You can't really overstate how much that hurt. Zuma knows the ANC's machinery better than anyone, and he used that knowledge to break their monopoly. It’s messy. It’s South African politics in a nutshell—complex, personal, and deeply tied to tribal and regional loyalties.
Corruption and the State Capture Ghost
You can’t talk about the South Africa ANC party without talking about "State Capture." This isn't just some buzzword. It refers to a specific period where the Gupta family—three brothers from India—reportedly had so much influence over Jacob Zuma that they were basically picking cabinet ministers.
The Zondo Commission spent years investigating this.
Thousands of pages of testimony revealed how billions of Rands were siphoned off from state-owned companies like Eskom (the power utility) and Transnet (the freight rail company). While the ANC under Ramaphosa has tried to "renew" itself, the process has been slow. Painfully slow. Some people are in jail, sure, but many of the faces associated with that era are still sitting in Parliament or holding senior party positions.
South Africans aren't blind. They see the lack of accountability. They see the crumbling infrastructure. When the trains stop running and the taps run dry in places like Gauteng, the "liberation" talk starts to sound like hollow echoes from a different century.
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Is the ANC Still the "Big Tent"?
The party always prided itself on being a "broad church." It meant they welcomed everyone—communists, business leaders, traditional chiefs, and urban liberals. But when you try to please everyone, you often end up pleasing no one.
Today, the South Africa ANC party is deeply divided between the "Reformists" (aligned with Ramaphosa) and the "Radical Economic Transformation" (RET) faction. One side wants to attract foreign investment and fix the debt. The other side wants to seize land without compensation and nationalize the mines. You can see the problem. It’s hard to run a country when your own cabinet is arguing about whether capitalism is the devil or the savior.
- The Tripartite Alliance (ANC, COSATU, and the SACP) is fraying.
- Trade unions are frustrated by wage freezes.
- Young voters—the "born frees"—don't feel the same emotional tie to the anti-apartheid struggle.
- New parties like Rise Mzansi and Build One South Africa are targeting the professional middle class.
The youth vote is particularly scary for the ANC. If you're 20 years old in Soweto, Mandela is a historical figure, not a lived experience. You care about data costs, safe transport, and whether you’ll ever move out of your parents' house. The ANC’s old-school rhetoric about "the movement" doesn't pay the bills.
What Happens Next for South Africa?
This coalition government is a massive experiment. It’s the first time the South Africa ANC party has had to actually negotiate their policies in real-time. If they can fix the electricity crisis and get the port system working, they might claw back some respect. If they spend the next few years bickering with the DA, the 2029 election will be even more brutal.
Investors are cautiously optimistic, which is a weird thing to say about South African politics. The Rand strengthened after the GNU was announced. People like stability. But stability is fragile when you have someone like Julius Malema (EFF) or Jacob Zuma (MK) shouting from the sidelines, calling the ANC "sellouts" for working with the white-led DA.
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The ANC isn't dead. Not by a long shot. They still have the most branches, the most experience, and the most recognizable brand in the country. But the era of the "God-complex"—where the ANC thought they would rule "until Jesus comes back" (a famous Zuma quote)—is officially over.
How to Track the Shift
If you’re trying to understand where the party is heading, don't just look at the big speeches. Look at the local by-elections. That’s where the real story is told. When the ANC loses a ward in a rural area that they’ve held for 30 years, that’s a signal.
Watch the "National Dialogue" that Ramaphosa has promised. It’s supposed to be a massive conversation about the country’s future, but it could easily turn into a talk shop that goes nowhere. The real test will be the 2026 local government elections. If the ANC continues to bleed votes there, the internal pressure to ditch the coalition and move back to the radical left might become unstoppable.
Actionable Insights for Observing the ANC
To really get a handle on the current state of the South Africa ANC party, you need to look past the headlines and focus on these specific indicators:
- Check the "Eskom Energy Availability Factor" (EAF). If the lights stay on, the ANC stays in power. It’s that simple.
- Follow the court cases of high-ranking officials. If the "Renewal" project is real, we need to see successful prosecutions of the "Big Fish" from the State Capture era.
- Monitor the tension within the GNU. Specifically, keep an eye on how the ANC handles the National Health Insurance (NHI) bill and the Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) Act. These are flashpoints with their coalition partners.
- Watch the MK Party's growth. If Zuma continues to consolidate the Zulu vote, the ANC’s path back to a majority is effectively blocked forever.
- Look at the unemployment stats for the 18-24 demographic. This is the ticking time bomb. If the ANC-led government can't create an environment for small businesses to thrive, the social unrest of July 2021 could happen again.
The story of the ANC is the story of South Africa. It’s a messy, beautiful, frustrating, and deeply human tale of a hero that lived long enough to see itself become the villain in many people’s eyes. Whether they can pivot and become a modern, functional political party is the biggest question in African politics today.