Tahoe snow is a fickle beast. One year you’re digging your car out of a twenty-foot drift in March, and the next you’re mountain biking on dirt in mid-February because the "Atmospheric Rivers" decided to visit British Columbia instead of the Sierra Nevada.
If you are looking at snow totals in Lake Tahoe for the current 2025-2026 season, you've probably noticed it hasn't been the "Snowpocalypse" everyone whispers about at the bars in South Shore.
Honestly, it’s been a bit of a grind.
As of mid-January 2026, the central Sierra snowpack is sitting at roughly 77% of its normal peak for this date. That's not a disaster, but it’s a far cry from the legendary 2022-2023 season when Kirkwood got hammered with over 700 inches of snow. We’re currently seeing total season accumulations hovering around the 110 to 135-inch mark at the higher elevations, while the valley floors are looking a bit leaner.
Why Snow Totals in Lake Tahoe Vary So Much
You can’t just look at one number and say "Tahoe has 100 inches." That’s like saying "California is sunny."
The Sierra Crest acts like a giant wall. When a storm rolls in from the Pacific, it hits the west side of the lake first. Resorts like Sugar Bowl and Palisades Tahoe (specifically the upper mountain at 8,000 feet) almost always report higher numbers than the East Shore.
By the time the clouds hop over the lake to places like Diamond Peak or Mt. Rose, they’ve often squeezed out a lot of their moisture.
Take this season as a prime example. The Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Pass—those folks are the real deal, by the way—has recorded significantly more water content than the SNOTEL sites on the Nevada side. We’re talking a difference of 20% to 30% in some cases.
- Palisades Tahoe (8,000'): Roughly 125" to date.
- Mt. Rose: Hovering around 132" (thanks to its high base elevation).
- Heavenly: Catching about 75-80% of its normal to-date average.
- Kirkwood: Always the outlier, usually leading the pack with deep stashes.
The Weirdness of 2026
This year we’re dealing with what the meteorologists call a "Weak La Niña."
Bryan Allegretto over at OpenSnow usually calls this the "wildcard" pattern. In a weak La Niña, the storms are often colder, which is great for snow quality—think that dry, fluffy powder that doesn't feel like "Sierra Cement."
The downside? These cold storms don't always carry the massive moisture volume of a warm Atmospheric River.
We’ve had a lot of "inside sliders" lately. These are storms that drop down from Canada over land rather than coming off the ocean. They bring freezing temps and maybe 4-6 inches of "dust on crust," but they don't move the needle on the season totals.
The "Miracle March" Myth and Reality
If you’re worried about the current snow totals in Lake Tahoe, don't panic yet.
Locals live for the "Miracle March." In 1991, and again in 2018, the season looked like a total bust until March arrived and dumped nearly 200 inches in a single month.
Historically, March is actually the snowiest month on average for the region, typically bringing in about 74 inches. January is usually second at 68 inches.
Because we are currently in an ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña state, the data suggests we could see high-flow events later in the spring. Tim Bardsley, a senior hydrologist at the NWS in Reno, has pointed out that some of the biggest Truckee River flood events (which means massive mountain snow) happen in these "neutral" years.
It’s basically a high-stakes poker game with the weather.
Comparing This Year to the "Big Ones"
To put things in perspective, let's look at how current numbers stack up against the hall-of-fame winters.
In the 2022-2023 season, by this time in January, the Sierra was already buried. Most resorts were reporting 300+ inches by mid-winter. We were at 200% of normal.
This year? We are at 78% statewide.
It feels thin because we’ve been spoiled by a few massive years recently. But if you look at the 2014-2015 "drought" season, where total snowfall for the entire year was only 132 inches at some resorts, you realize we’re actually doing okay.
Average Annual Snowfall Benchmarks:
- Palisades Tahoe: 400"
- Kirkwood: 459"
- Northstar: 315"
- Mt. Rose: 269"
We still have about 45% of our typical "snow-building" season left. The "peak" snowpack usually doesn't hit until April 1st.
What This Means for Your Trip
If you’re heading up this weekend, expect "variable" conditions.
The high-elevation north-facing slopes are holding snow well. Since the temps have stayed relatively cool, we aren't seeing the massive melt-freeze cycles that turn the mountain into an ice rink.
However, the lower elevations and sun-exposed south faces are getting "sun-baked."
Expert Tips for Low-Snow Cycles:
- Follow the Aspect: Stick to the north-facing trees at Northstar or the "backside" of Kirkwood early in the day.
- Elevation is King: This is the year to ski Mt. Rose. Its base starts at 8,260 feet, which is higher than the peak of some other mountains.
- Check the "Snow Water Equivalent" (SWE): Don't just look at inches of snow. Look at how much water is in it. Heavy, wet snow creates a better base that lasts through April.
Honestly, the "snow totals in Lake Tahoe" are only half the story. The grooming teams at places like Heavenly and Palisades have become so good at man-made snow that they can keep the runs "buffed out" even when Mother Nature is being stingy.
If we don't get a major Atmospheric River by the end of February, we might be looking at an early end to the season for the smaller, low-elevation hills. But for the big players? They’ve got enough of a base (currently 40-60 inches at mid-mountain) to last well into spring.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the CDEC (California Data Exchange Center) "Snow Water Content" charts for the Central Sierra. If the "Percent of Normal" starts creeping back toward 90%, it's time to book that late-season March trip. Check the daily NWS Reno forecast for "inside slider" patterns, which offer the best cold-smoke powder, even if the total accumulation is low.