If you’ve lived in Rochester for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up, look out the window at a light dusting, and by the time you've finished your first cup of coffee, the world has turned into a giant marshmallow. Honestly, predicting the snow forecast Rochester NY is kinda like trying to guess which way a squirrel is going to run across East Avenue. You might have a general idea, but the reality is usually much more chaotic.
Right now, as of Saturday, January 17, 2026, the city is sitting in that weird mid-January limbo. We aren't seeing a massive blizzard today, but the atmosphere is definitely "fidgety."
The Immediate Outlook: Flurries and "Feels Like" Math
Basically, if you’re heading out to the Public Market or catching a game, don't let the thermometer fool you. The actual temperature is hovering around 38°F, but with that southwest wind kicking up at 10 to 13 mph, the "feels like" temperature is stuck at a much crispier 32°F. It’s that damp, Great Lakes cold that gets into your marrow.
We are looking at a 20% chance of light snow throughout the day and into the night. It’s not the kind of accumulation that requires the heavy-duty snowblower, but it’s enough to make the Thruway between Geneva and Rochester a bit slick. The NYS Thruway Authority has already noted snow/ice conditions and wet spots on those stretches this morning.
The low tonight is dropping down to 21°F. That's the real kicker. Anything that melts today is going to be a sheet of glass by tomorrow morning.
Why Rochester Snow Is Just Different
Most people think "snow is snow," but they're wrong. In Rochester, we deal with the "Lake Effect Machine." This isn't just a weather term; it's a way of life. When cold air screams across the relatively warmer waters of Lake Ontario, it picks up moisture like a sponge and dumps it in very specific, very narrow bands.
You can be in Brighton getting slammed with four inches an hour while someone in Greece is seeing literal sunshine. It’s wild.
Historically, January is our heavy hitter. We usually see about 16 days of precipitation this month. On average, Rochester gets about 99.5 inches of snow a year. Some years, like 1996, we’ve seen over 30 inches in January alone. This year, the 2025-2026 season was predicted by the Old Farmer’s Almanac to be "milder and drier," but they also warned of "snowy surprises" in late January. We are right on the cusp of that window.
The Real Data for Today (Jan 17, 2026)
- Current Temp: 38°F
- RealFeel: 32°F
- Precipitation: Light snow (20% chance)
- Wind: Southwest at 13 mph
- Humidity: 78%
- Overnight Low: 21°F
What’s Actually Coming Next Week?
Looking ahead, the "flurries east, sunny west" pattern is expected to hold through the 21st. But don’t get too comfortable. The long-range models from the National Weather Service and climate reports suggest a shift toward the end of the month.
Between January 22nd and 31st, we’re looking at a transition back to "snowy and turning cold." This fits the classic Rochester pattern: a mid-month thaw that makes everyone think spring is early, followed by a gut-punch of lake effect snow that lasts until St. Patrick's Day.
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Honestly, the "January Thaw" is a trap. Every year, people wash their cars and put away the heavy shovels, and every year, the lake reminds us who's boss.
Actionable Tips for This Weekend
Stop checking the weather app every ten minutes. It’s going to be gray. It’s Rochester in January. Instead, do these three things to stay ahead of the snow forecast Rochester NY:
- Check the Thruway Exits: If you’re traveling, exits 41 (Geneva) to 45 (Victor) are currently reporting snow and ice. The pavement is wet and "greasy." Slow down.
- Watch the Overnight Freeze: With the temperature dropping to 21°F tonight, your driveway will freeze. If you have slush now, clear it before sunset.
- Top Off Your Fluid: It sounds basic, but the salt spray on I-490 right now is brutal. You’ll burn through a gallon of washer fluid in a single trip to Eastview Mall.
The "big one" isn't here today, but the ingredients are simmering. Keep the boots by the door and the scraper in the car. We’re in the heart of winter now, and in Rochester, that means the forecast is always just a suggestion until the flakes actually start hitting your windshield.