Honestly, if you've lived in the Lowcountry for more than a week, you know the drill. Someone mentions a "flurry" on Facebook and suddenly Harris Teeter is out of bread, milk, and dignity. It's a Charleston tradition. But looking at the actual snow forecast Charleston SC data for mid-January 2026, we need to separate the panic from the reality of our weird subtropical bubble.
Right now, the National Weather Service in Charleston is tracking a legit punch of Arctic air. We're talking northwest winds hitting 14-15 mph today, January 15, making that 48°F feel more like 41°F. It’s biting. But the real "will it, won't it" drama starts tonight.
The Current Numbers (And Why They’re Tricky)
Tonight, the mercury is expected to crater to 28°F. That is plenty cold for snow. The NWS is actually putting a 10% chance of snow in the forecast for Thursday night.
Is that a blizzard? No.
Is it enough to make everyone forget how to drive on the Ravenel Bridge? Absolutely.
The humidity is sitting at 33% right now but will climb to 50% overnight. That’s the classic Charleston struggle: getting the moisture and the cold to shake hands at the exact same time. Usually, the cold arrives just as the moisture leaves, leaving us with nothing but dry, freezing air and disappointment.
The Weekend "Wintry Mix" Threat
If tonight’s 10% chance doesn’t pan out, all eyes shift to Sunday, January 18. This is the one the weather geeks are watching.
Forecasts show a 65% chance of rain during the day with a high of 47°F. But as the sun goes down, that rain chance transitions into a 15% chance of snow. Most of us in West Ashley or Mount Pleasant will probably just see a cold, miserable slush. However, for folks out past I-95 or up in Summerville, that transition to a "wintry mix" is much more likely.
Why Charleston Rarely Sees the Big One
It’s basically the ocean’s fault. The Gulf Stream is like a giant space heater parked off our coast. Even when a Nor'easter-style setup looks perfect, that relatively warm water often turns what could be a historic snowstorm into a soggy 42°F rain shower.
- Record to Beat: 8 inches (December 1989).
- Recent Memory: The 2018 "Snowpocalypse" that dumped about 5 inches in Summerville.
- The 2026 Reality: We are currently in a weak La Niña pattern.
La Niña usually means warmer and drier for the Southeast. But—and this is a big "but"—La Niña also allows for these sudden, sharp "clippers" that can drop a quick inch of snow before the subtropical ridge pushes back.
Practical Steps for the Next 72 Hours
Don't be the person stranded without a plan.
Check your pipes. We’re looking at lows of 28°F tonight and again tomorrow night. If you’re in an older house downtown or a raised beach cottage, wrap those exposed pipes.
Bring the pets in. It sounds like common sense, but a 20°F wind chill is no joke for a dog used to 80-degree humidity.
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Watch the Sunday transition. If you have travel plans on I-26 for Sunday evening, keep a close eye on the local radar. Even a dusting of snow in Charleston turns the roads into an ice rink because we simply don't have the salt trucks to handle it.
Basically, keep the expectations low. We aren't looking at a "white out" that shuts the city down for a week, but the 10-15% probabilities for tonight and Sunday night are high enough to warrant keeping your ice scraper (or your credit card for a makeshift one) handy.
Stay warm, keep the plants covered, and maybe buy that extra loaf of bread just in case. You know you want to.