Honestly, if you’ve been watching the stock price of SMR, you probably feel like you're on a roller coaster that was built by a madman. One day, it’s gapping up because some big-name utility mentions "nuclear" in a press release, and the next, it’s plunging because of a missed earnings target that—let’s be real—everyone should have seen coming.
NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is a weird beast. It’s currently trading around $20.19, but that number doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story. You’re looking at a company that is basically the "poster child" for the American nuclear renaissance. They’ve got the only Small Modular Reactor (SMR) design that’s actually cleared the hurdles with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That's a huge deal. But here’s the kicker: they haven’t actually finished building a commercial plant yet.
It’s all speculation and "what-ifs" right now. But those "what-ifs" are backed by some pretty massive players.
The Reality Behind the $20 Level
The stock price of SMR has been a battleground lately. We’re sitting in mid-January 2026, and the year started with a bang. On January 5th, the stock gapped up significantly. Why? Because the market finally started cluing into the fact that AI-driven data centers are absolute power hogs. Companies like Microsoft and Amazon aren't just looking for "green" energy; they need "always-on" energy. Solar and wind are great, but they don't work when the sun goes down or the wind stops blowing.
Nuclear—specifically the small, modular kind NuScale is peddling—is the only thing that fits that 24/7 carbon-free profile. But then reality set in. By January 12th, reports started circulating about the "execution risk." It’s easy to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU); it’s a whole different ballgame to pour concrete and stay on budget.
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Remember the Carbon Free Power Project in Idaho? That was supposed to be the big debut. It got canned in late 2023 because the costs spiraled from $5.3 billion to over $9 billion. Investors haven't forgotten that. Every time the stock price of SMR starts to run, that ghost of Idaho comes back to haunt the charts.
What’s Actually Moving the Needle in 2026?
If you're trying to figure out if this is a "buy the dip" moment or a "get out while you can" situation, you have to look at the ENTRA1 and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) partnership. This isn't just a small pilot. We are talking about a proposed 6 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity.
- The TVA Deal: This is the big one. It involves potentially 72 reactor modules across multiple sites.
- The RoPower Project: Romania is looking at six NuScale reactors for a site in Doicești. They're already in Phase 2 of the design study.
- The "AI Power Grab": This is the newest catalyst. Hyperscalers are essentially trying to become their own utilities to ensure their AI chips never go dark.
NuScale’s financials are... well, they’re messy. In their Q3 2025 report, they reported revenue of about $8.24 million. That’s tiny for a company with a market cap over $6 billion. They also reported an EPS loss of $1.85, which was way worse than what analysts were expecting. They basically survived the quarter by selling $475 million worth of stock through an "at-the-market" program.
Basically, they are burning cash to stay alive until those "hard contracts" turn into real, recurring revenue.
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The Technical Tussle: Bulls vs. Bears
Analysts are all over the place on this one. You’ve got some folks at B. Riley Securities maintaining a "Buy" rating, while the big shops like Goldman Sachs and UBS are sitting on the fence with a "Neutral." Then you have Citigroup, who actually downgraded it to "Sell" late last year.
The average price target for the stock price of SMR is sitting somewhere around $36.71, but the range is comical. The high-end estimates go up to $63, while the bears think it could tank back down to $15 or even $4 if another project gets canceled.
Technically, the stock is in a bit of a "no man's land." It’s recently dipped below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In trader speak, that’s usually a signal to head for the exits. However, in the world of high-growth tech and energy, these technicals can be blown out of the water by a single "Notice to Proceed" on a major contract.
What Most People Get Wrong About NuScale
A lot of people think NuScale is just another "green energy" play. It’s not. It’s a manufacturing play. Their whole business model is based on the idea that they can build these reactors in a factory, ship them on a truck or railcar, and plug them in.
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If they can actually prove that the "factory-built" model works, the stock price of SMR won't just move; it’ll teleport. But if they keep having to do custom engineering for every single site, the costs will stay high, and the big utilities will just stick with natural gas or traditional large-scale nuclear.
There’s also the competition. You’ve got Oklo, BWX Technologies, and GE Vernova all nipping at their heels. NuScale has the first-mover advantage with the NRC, but GE Vernova has a massive global supply chain already in place. It’s a race.
NuScale’s 2026 Roadmap: What to Watch
If you’re holding SMR or thinking about jumping in, there are three specific milestones you need to watch like a hawk.
- The First "Hard Contract": MOUs don't pay the bills. Watch for ENTRA1 to convert their agreement with the TVA into a binding Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). That is the "holy grail" for this stock.
- NRC Uprate Approval: NuScale is trying to get approval to increase the power output of their modules from 50 MWe to 77 MWe. More power from the same module means better margins.
- The March 2nd Earnings Call: This will be the next big data point. If they miss on revenue again or show a higher-than-expected cash burn, the floor could drop out.
Actionable Insights for Investors
Look, the stock price of SMR isn't for the faint of heart. It’s a binary bet. Either they become the "Windows" of the nuclear world—the standard operating system for small reactors—or they become a footnote in history.
- If you’re a long-term believer: Don't chase the green candles. This stock is volatile enough that you’ll almost always get a "blood in the streets" entry point.
- If you’re a trader: Watch that $18.80 support level. If it breaks that on high volume, it could fill the gap down to $14 quickly.
- Risk Management: This shouldn't be your "safe" money. It’s a speculative growth play. Keep the position size small enough that a 20% drop doesn't ruin your year.
The nuclear renaissance is real, and the demand for 24/7 power is higher than it’s been in decades. NuScale has the lead, but they have to prove they can actually build the thing without going broke.
Next Steps:
- Check the official NuScale Power Investor Relations page for the 8-K filing regarding the latest ENTRA1 milestone payments.
- Compare SMR’s current market cap against competitors like OKLO and GE Vernova to see if the "NRC-certified" premium is currently overvalued.
- Set price alerts at the $18.50 and $22.50 levels to catch the next major breakout or breakdown.