You've probably seen the headlines. One day, NuScale Power (SMR) is the darling of the "nuclear renaissance," and the next, it feels like the floor has completely dropped out. If you're holding a bag or just watching from the sidelines, you’re likely asking the same question everyone else is: why is SMR stock dropping so aggressively when the world supposedly needs clean energy more than ever?
It’s been a brutal stretch. Since peaking at roughly $57 per share in late 2025, the stock has been in a free-fall, recently hovering in the high teens. We’re talking about a 60% plus haircut in just a few months. Honestly, it’s enough to make any investor feel a bit nauseous.
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But this isn't just "market volatility." There are very specific, very real reasons why the momentum shifted.
The Fluor Exit: A Massive Shadow Over SMR Stock Dropping
If you want to understand the primary weight on this stock, you have to look at Fluor Corporation. They were the early believers, the big-money backers who owned a massive chunk of NuScale—about 39% of the total equity at one point.
Last October, when the stock was flying high, Fluor did what any smart business does: they started cashing out. They sold a portion for roughly $605 million. That was just the beginning. In November, they dropped the bombshell that they planned to exit their entire remaining position—111 million shares—by the end of the second quarter of 2026.
Think about that. You have a massive institutional whale constantly selling off millions of shares. It creates a "supply overhang" that basically caps any rally. Every time the stock tries to breathe, more Fluor shares hit the market. It's a relentless downward pressure that won't fully evaporate until Fluor is completely out.
Why is SMR Stock Dropping? The Q3 Earnings Disaster
Markets can handle a lot of things, but they hate being blindsided. In November 2025, NuScale reported their third-quarter results, and to put it bluntly, they were "shocking."
While revenue technically grew compared to the previous year, the bottom line was a total wreck. We’re talking about a net loss of $532 million for a single quarter. For a company with only $8.2 million in revenue, that kind of burn rate is terrifying. Most of that loss came from a massive $495 million milestone payment to their partner, ENTRA1.
- EPS Miss: Analysts expected a loss of around $0.11. Instead, they got a loss of $1.85.
- Share Dilution: To keep the lights on, shareholders approved increasing authorized shares from 332 million to 662 million.
- Execution Risk: The partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is still just a "term sheet," not a binding power purchase agreement.
Basically, the "dream" of small modular reactors met the "reality" of a balance sheet that's currently bleeding cash faster than a slasher movie.
The 2030 Problem: A Long Road to Revenue
Investors are notoriously impatient. NuScale’s first commercial plant in Romania (the RoPower project) isn't expected to be operational until 2030. Their major US projects with TVA are on a similar timeline.
When you buy SMR today, you’re not buying a business; you’re buying a "story" that doesn't pay off for at least another four or five years. In a market where high-interest rates (though cooling) still make "future money" less valuable than "now money," that’s a hard sell.
Competition Is Biting Harder Than Expected
NuScale used to be the only game in town for SMRs with NRC approval. That’s changing. Fast.
While NuScale was dealing with its earnings mess, its rivals were making moves. Oklo recently snagged a deal with Meta to power data centers in Ohio. GE Vernova is aggressively pushing its BWRX-300 reactor globally, partnering with Samsung C&T to build out a supply chain. Even BWX Technologies is tightening its grip on the manufacturing side of the house.
NuScale is no longer the undisputed king of the hill. It’s now fighting for scraps in a sector where big tech companies (the "Hyperscalers") want power now, not in 2032.
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Technical Breakdowns and Sentiment
From a "chart guy" perspective, the situation is equally grim. The stock dipped below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In trader-speak, that’s a "death cross" territory. It signals to the algorithms and institutional traders that the trend is officially bearish.
When you combine a technical breakdown with a 12.6% short interest, you get a recipe for a slow, painful grind lower. Short sellers have made a killing on this decline, and they don't seem ready to let go just yet.
Is There a Bottom in Sight?
It's not all doom and gloom, though. Interestingly, some analysts are starting to flip. Bank of America recently upgraded the stock from "Underperform" to "Neutral," even while cutting their price target to $28.
The logic? The stock has been beaten up so much that the "bad news" might finally be priced in. Plus, the Trump administration’s aggressive pro-nuclear stance could provide a regulatory tailwind that speeds up these long-dated projects.
If you're looking for the "buy the dip" moment, you have to weigh that $19 price tag against the fact that the company has **$753 million in cash** but is also facing "execution risks" that could delay their first reactor by years. It's a high-stakes poker game.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're currently staring at your brokerage account wondering what to do, here are a few ways to look at the situation:
- Watch the Fluor Exit: Until Fluor finishes selling their 111 million shares (likely by June 2026), any rally in SMR stock will face heavy resistance. Treat every "pop" in price with extreme caution.
- Monitor the TVA Agreement: The stock won't truly recover until that "term sheet" becomes a "binding contract." That is the single most important catalyst for the company.
- Evaluate Your Timeline: If you can’t wait until 2028 or 2030 to see real revenue, this isn't the stock for you. It remains a speculative play on the future of the grid.
- Short Interest Check: Keep an eye on the "days to cover." If short interest starts to drop significantly while the price stabilizes, it could indicate the bottom is forming.
NuScale Power is a classic "pre-revenue" tech play. It has world-changing potential, but right now, it’s being crushed by the weight of its own capital needs and a major shareholder heading for the exits.
Wait for the Fluor selling to conclude. Check the SEC filings for any news on binding power purchase agreements. Diversify into established energy players if the 60% swings are too much for your blood pressure.