Del Mar is usually where the turf meets the surf, but on November 2, 2024, it was where the world’s best dirt horses basically got their lunch handed to them by a closer who wasn't supposed to get there in time. Everyone was talking about City of Troy. The hype was deafening. Aidan O'Brien, a man who has won everything there is to win in Europe, brought his Epsom Derby winner over to conquer the American dirt. It didn't happen. Not even close. City of Troy stumbled out of the gate, never found his rhythm, and finished eighth. It was a brutal reminder that the Breeders Cup Classic 2024 doesn't care about your pedigree or your European trophies if you can't handle the kickback of California sand.
The real story was Sierra Leone. Honestly, if you’d followed this horse through the Triple Crown trail, you knew he had the engine. You also knew he had a nasty habit of leaning in, lugging out, and basically doing everything except running in a straight line when it mattered most. But at Del Mar, under the lights and with $7 million on the line, he finally put it all together.
The Chaos of the Breeders Cup Classic 2024 Pace
Horse racing is often a game of math. If the leaders go too fast, they collapse. If they go too slow, the closers are stranded. In the Breeders Cup Classic 2024, the pace was... well, it was honest.
Derma Sotogake, the Japanese contender, and Fierceness, the Kentucky Derby favorite who had something to prove, were right there. Fierceness looked like the winner turning for home. John Velazquez had him in the perfect spot. For a second, it felt like the redemption arc was complete for Mike Repole’s star colt. Then, the shadows grew long.
Sierra Leone, trailing near the back under Flavien Prat, started that massive, grinding run he’s famous for. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where he lost by a nose after bumping with Forever Young, he stayed relatively straight. He didn't just win; he surged. He stopped the clock in 2:00.78 for the mile and a quarter. It wasn't the fastest time in history, but on that track, on that day, it was dominant.
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Why the Turf Stars Failed
There is this persistent idea that a truly great horse can run on anything. People look at Secretariat or more recently, horses like Gun Runner, and assume greatness translates across surfaces. It's a trap. The Breeders Cup Classic 2024 proved it again. City of Troy is a monster on the grass. On the dirt? He looked like he was running in quicksand.
Aidan O'Brien was incredibly gracious in defeat, as he always is, but he admitted the start was the killer. On dirt, if you aren't in the mix early, the dirt hitting your face—the "kickback"—feels like being pelted with small rocks. If a horse isn't used to it, they back off. City of Troy backed off.
It wasn't just him, though. Forever Young, the Japanese hero who nearly won the Derby, ran a massive race to finish third. He’s tough as nails. But even he couldn't quite bridge the gap to Sierra Leone and Fierceness. The Americans defended their home dirt, which has become a recurring theme in this race regardless of how global the field gets.
The Flavien Prat Factor
Let’s talk about the jockey. Flavien Prat is arguably the best "closen" rider in the country right now. He has this internal clock that is just different. He knew the Del Mar stretch is short. If you wait too long at Del Mar, you’re dead.
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He moved Sierra Leone earlier than usual. It was a gutsy call. Most riders would have panicked seeing Fierceness getting first run, but Prat stayed cool. He swung wide—not too wide—and let the horse's natural stride take over.
- He avoided the traffic on the rail.
- He kept the horse's head straight.
- He timed the surge to peak at the sixteenth pole.
It was a masterclass in staying out of a horse's way.
The Money and the Aftermath
Winning the Breeders Cup Classic 2024 changed the trajectory of the "Horse of the Year" conversation. Before this, it was a mess. You had Thorpedo Anna dominating the fillies, but could a filly be the best in the land? You had Fierceness being brilliant one day and "meh" the next.
By winning this, Sierra Leone, a $2.3 million yearling purchase, finally paid off the massive investment. He's a son of Gun Runner, and he runs exactly like his dad did—tough, gritty, and seemingly getting better as the distances get longer.
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The purse of $7 million is the biggest in American racing, and the lion's share went to the owners of a horse that many people had written off as "the one who always almost wins." Not anymore.
What This Means for 2025 and Beyond
If you're looking for what to do with this information, don't just file it away as sports trivia. The Breeders Cup Classic 2024 gave us a blueprint for identifying future champions.
First, ignore the "surface crossover" hype unless the horse has worked extensively on dirt. The physics are different. The way the hoof hits the ground is different. Second, look for horses that are peaking in the fall. Sierra Leone’s Beyer Speed Figures had been hovering in a range that suggested he was ready for a career-best. He didn't bounce; he exploded.
For bettors and fans, the lesson is simple: stick with the grinders. The flashy speedsters are fun to watch in August, but in November, when the track gets heavy and the air gets cool, you want the horse that can sustain a long, punishing run.
Check the pedigree of the top three finishers. Gun Runner, City of Light, Real Steel. These are horses built for stamina. If you want to get ahead of the curve for next year, start tracking the three-year-olds who finish strong in races like the Travers or the Pennsylvania Derby. They are the ones who will be standing in the winner's circle at the next Breeders Cup.
Actionable Insights for Following the Classic Division:
- Watch the Kickback: Go back and watch the replay of the Breeders Cup Classic 2024. Focus specifically on the horses in the middle of the pack. See how they react when the dirt hits them. This will tell you more about a horse's "heart" than any speed figure ever could.
- Track the Consistently High Beyers: Sierra Leone didn't come out of nowhere; he was consistently running 100+ Beyer Speed Figures. Reliability beats a one-time "flash in the pan" performance every time.
- Follow the Trainers: Chad Brown (Sierra Leone's trainer) and Todd Pletcher (Fierceness) are masters of the "long game." They don't care about winning in February. They want their horses peaking in November. Track their workout patterns in the four weeks leading up to big stakes races to see who is "pointing" for a peak performance.
- Evaluate the Surface: Del Mar plays differently than Churchill Downs or Santa Anita. Always check a horse's "Horse for Course" stats. Some horses love the salt air and the specific composition of the Del Mar dirt; others hate it.