Horse racing is brutal. Honestly, if you watched the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024 at Del Mar, you saw exactly why this sport breaks hearts and makes legends in the same breath. Everyone was talking about City of Troy. The hype was deafening. Aidan O'Brien, arguably the greatest trainer on the planet, brought this European superstar over to try and conquer the dirt. It didn't happen. Not even close. City of Troy looked like he hit a wall the second the gates opened, proving once again that the transition from turf to dirt is a different kind of beast.
But the real story? That belongs to Sierra Leone.
People love to complain about this horse. They say he’s "quirky." They say he hangs in. They say he finds ways to lose. Before the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024, the narrative was that he was a professional bridesmaid, always finishing second or third because he couldn't run a straight line when it mattered most. Then, in front of a packed house in Southern California, he finally put it all together. It wasn't just a win; it was a statement that silenced every critic who thought he lacked the "will" to get his nose in front.
The Del Mar Factor and Why the Track Mattered
Del Mar is a weird place for a 1 1/4-mile race. It’s a "bullring" style track compared to the sprawling expanse of Belmont or even Churchill Downs. The turns are tight. The stretch is short. Usually, this favors horses that are right on the lead, the "speed" horses that can grab the rail and never look back.
Sierra Leone is the opposite of that. He’s a closer. He drops back, eats dirt for three-quarters of a mile, and then tries to fly past everyone at the end. On paper, the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024 should have been a nightmare for him.
Fierceness, the Todd Pletcher trainee, was the one everyone expected to dominate if the pace was slow. And he ran a massive race. Let's be fair—Fierceness didn't "lose" the race as much as Sierra Leone "won" it. When John Velazquez sent Fierceness to the lead, he looked like a winner at the top of the stretch. But Flavien Prat, who is riding like a man possessed lately, timed the move on Sierra Leone with surgical precision.
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Breaking Down the $7 Million Scramble
The purse for the Classic jumped to $7 million in 2024. That’s a lot of pressure. You could see it in the way the jockeys handled the first turn. Newgate and Derma Sotogake (the Japanese contender) were part of a pace scenario that was honest but not blistering. This helped Sierra Leone. If the pace had been a crawl, he would have had no chance.
- Winner: Sierra Leone ($15.80 to win)
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Time: 2:00.78
Chad Brown has won plenty of Breeders' Cup trophies, but they are almost all on the grass. People pigeonhole him as a "turf trainer." Winning the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024 with a closer on a speed-biased track like Del Mar? That’s a career-defining moment for him. It proves he can develop a top-tier dirt horse just as well as he can a European miler.
What Happened to City of Troy?
We have to talk about it. The "Ladbrokes" of the world and the European media had built City of Troy up as the second coming of Secretariat. He was the heavy favorite for a long time in the ante-post betting. But dirt racing is violent. It’s loud. The "kickback"—the sand and soil flying into a horse's face—is something turf horses never deal with.
City of Troy broke poorly. He was squeezed. He took a face full of Del Mar dirt and basically said, "No thanks." It doesn't mean he wasn't a great horse. He was phenomenal on the grass in England. It just means that the Breeders' Cup Classic remains the hardest race in the world for a foreigner to win. Just ask Andre Fabre or John Gosden. It’s a graveyard for turf legends.
The Japanese Contingent
Japan is coming for American racing. They brought Forever Young, a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby earlier in the year. He ran a gutsy third in the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024. Think about that. A Japanese-bred horse traveled across the world and beat almost the entire American field on their own soil, finishing just behind Fierceness.
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Japanese owners like Susumu Fujita are spending tens of millions of dollars to win this specific race. They didn't get the trophy this time, but the gap is closing. Fast. If you aren't handicapping Japanese horses in the Classic from now on, you're basically throwing money away.
Why Sierra Leone's Gear Change Was Different This Time
In the Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone lugged in badly. He bumped Forever Young. He cost himself the win by a nose because he couldn't stay straight. His trainer, Chad Brown, changed the bit. They worked on his steering.
In the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024, he was a different animal. When Prat asked him to go, he shifted gears but stayed relatively true. He didn't dive toward the rail like he did at Churchill Downs. This is the "nuance" of horse racing that casual fans miss. A horse isn't a machine; they have habits. Sierra Leone finally broke his bad habit on the biggest stage in the sport.
The Betting Aftermath
If you played the exacta with Sierra Leone and Fierceness, you did alright. It paid $53.00 for a $2 bet. Not a life-changing score, but solid considering they were two of the best horses in the race. The real "value" was staying away from City of Troy. He was overbet, overhyped, and completely out of his element.
Many professional gamblers were looking at the "sheet" numbers. Sierra Leone had been consistently running fast—faster, actually, than most people realized. His speed figures were elite; he just needed the right trip. He got it.
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Actionable Insights for Future Breeders' Cup Betting
You can't just look at who won the last race. You have to look at the "how."
- Stop betting the "Hype" horse from Europe on dirt. Unless they have a pedigree that screams dirt (like being sired by Justify or Gun Runner), they usually struggle with the kickback. City of Troy was a lesson in marketing versus reality.
- Look for "closers" who have been unlucky. Sierra Leone was the "unlucky" horse of the 2024 Triple Crown season. Eventually, luck turns.
- The "Home Field" advantage is real. California tracks play differently than New York or Kentucky tracks. Del Mar is sandy and gets deep in the afternoon. Horses that have worked over the surface locally usually have a 2-3 length advantage before the gates even open.
- Watch the bit changes. When a trainer like Chad Brown makes a hardware change on a multi-million dollar horse, pay attention. It’s usually the final piece of the puzzle.
The Legacy of the 2024 Classic
This race effectively decided the Three-Year-Old Male Championship. Before the Breeders' Cup Classic 2024, it was a toss-up between Fierceness and some others. After? Sierra Leone locked it up. He showed up for every dance. He ran in the Blue Grass, the Derby, the Belmont, the Travers, and the Classic. In an era where horses are often "bubble-wrapped" and only run three times a year, Sierra Leone was an old-school iron horse.
He didn't just win a race; he won a war of attrition.
When you look back at the 2024 season, don't just remember the finish line. Remember the months of training and the equipment adjustments that led to those two minutes of glory. Sierra Leone wasn't a "born" champion in the sense that everything came easy to him. He was a project. He was a difficult, talented, frustrating athlete who finally learned how to use his gifts at the exact moment the world was watching.
If you want to understand the 2025 season, start by looking at the horses that finished 4th through 6th in this race. Those are your future stars for the Pegasus World Cup and the Saudi Cup. The Classic is the end of one road, but it’s the blueprint for the next year of betting. Keep an eye on the Japanese runners—they aren't going anywhere, and their first Classic win is inevitable.
The 2024 edition proved that while speed is king, heart still matters. And Sierra Leone, for all his quirks, had the biggest heart in the field.
Next Steps for Racing Fans:
- Check the Equibase speed figures for the top four finishers to see who is projected to improve in the 2025 season.
- Review the replay of the first turn to see how much ground Forever Young actually lost; it will change how you bet him in his next North American start.
- Monitor the retirement announcements, as many of these stallions will be heading to stud duties by January.