If you’re staring at a stock chart wondering if you missed the boat, you aren't alone. Everyone has that same nagging question: should I buy nvidia stock now or wait for the inevitable "pop"?
It's January 2026. The world is different, but the hype is identical.
Honestly, looking at the numbers can make your head spin. We just saw Nvidia post a record $57 billion in revenue for their Q3 fiscal 2026. That’s up 62% from a year ago. It’s wild. But here’s the kicker—while the revenue is screaming higher, the stock has actually been a bit of a "laggard" lately compared to the absolute moon-mission it was on in 2024.
Chris Caso over at Wolfe Research recently pointed out something pretty interesting. He added Nvidia to his "alpha list" because the stock was "only" up about 36% over the last year. Meanwhile, other players like Micron have been surging.
So, is Nvidia actually... cheap? Kinda.
The Blackwell Reality Check
Everyone talks about the Blackwell chips like they're the only thing that matters. They are huge, don't get me wrong. CEO Jensen Huang basically said Blackwell sales are "off the charts." But the smart money is already looking past them.
The real story right now is the Vera Rubin platform.
Announced with a lot of fanfare, the Rubin rack is designed to deliver 5x the inference performance of Blackwell. If you're an investor, that's the "moat." While companies like Google and Amazon are trying to build their own custom AI chips (ASICs), Nvidia is moving so fast that by the time a competitor catches up to the current generation, Jensen is already shipping the next one.
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Why the "Bubble" hasn't popped yet
- The Networking Secret: Most people focus on the GPUs. But Nvidia’s networking revenue (stuff like InfiniBand and Spectrum-X) just hit $8.2 billion. That’s 162% growth.
- The "Attach Rate": CFO Colette Kress recently mentioned at the UBS conference that the networking attach rate is nearly 90%. Basically, if you buy their chips, you’re stuck buying their cables and switches too.
- Software Lock-in: CUDA is still the king. Developers are used to it. Switching away from Nvidia isn't just about buying a different chip; it’s about rewriting millions of lines of code.
Is the valuation still insane?
Let's talk about the P/E ratio. It’s the metric everyone uses to say a stock is overpriced.
Right now, Nvidia is trading at roughly 24x forward earnings. Compare that to its five-year average of around 50x before the AI boom really exploded. On paper, the stock is actually trading at a discount compared to its historical norms.
RBC Capital Markets recently initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $253. They’re betting on a 31% upside from where we are in mid-January 2026. Their argument? The market is underestimating the "full-stack" advantage.
It’s not just a chip company anymore. It’s a data center company. It’s a software company. It’s basically the utility company for the AI age.
The "Bear" Case: What could go wrong?
It isn't all sunshine and soaring candles. There are real risks.
One big one is the "H20" situation in China. We saw a $4.5 billion inventory charge earlier because of export restrictions. That hurt. If the trade war heats up further, that’s a massive chunk of the market that just vanishes.
Then there’s the "Hyperscaler" problem. Microsoft, Meta, and Google are Nvidia’s biggest customers. But they are also their biggest potential threats. Every time Google rolls out a new TPU (Tensor Processing Unit), a little bit of Nvidia’s dominance gets chipped away.
Also, let's be real: at a $4.5 trillion market cap, how much bigger can it actually get? To double from here, Nvidia would need to be worth more than the GDP of several major countries combined.
Should I buy nvidia stock today?
If you’re looking for a 10x return in six months, you’re probably three years too late. That ship sailed in 2023.
However, if you're looking for the foundational player in the most significant tech shift since the internet, the case for buying is still there. The revenue isn't just "hype"—it's real cash flowing into the bank. They returned $37 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in just the first nine months of the fiscal year.
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Actionable Steps for Investors
- Check your concentration: If you already own an S&P 500 index fund, you already own a ton of Nvidia. Don't over-leverage yourself.
- Watch the $184 level: Technical analysts are looking at $184 as a key support level. If it holds, the path to $212 (the old high) looks clear.
- Look at the "Annual Update": Nvidia has committed to a one-year product cycle. Keep an eye on the Rubin ramp-up in the second half of 2026. That will be the catalyst for the next leg up or a sign that demand is finally cooling.
Investing in Nvidia right now is a bet on the "Physical AI" and robotics era. With platforms like GR00T and Cosmos, they are trying to do for robots what they did for chatbots.
It’s a high-stakes game. But as of January 2026, Jensen Huang is still the one holding all the cards.