When you think about "recession-proof" businesses, you probably think of utilities or maybe discount retailers. But there is a massive player in the "death care" industry that is literally built on a demographic certainty that most of us would rather not talk about at a dinner party. We’re talking about Service Corp International stock price, and if you’ve been watching the tickers lately, you know it’s been on a bit of a tear.
Honestly, the business of funerals and cemeteries—what the pros call the death care sector—is currently sitting at a fascinating crossroads.
As of mid-January 2026, the Service Corp International stock price (NYSE: SCI) is hovering around the $83 mark. It’s been a wild ride from the low $70s we saw just a year ago. But here’s the thing: looking at the daily price fluctuation is kinda like staring at the grass grow while a hurricane is forming on the horizon. To understand where this stock is actually going, you have to look at the massive wave of aging baby boomers.
It’s a grim reality, but for SCI, it’s a structural growth driver that isn't going away.
The Reality Behind the Service Corp International Stock Price
You've probably noticed that SCI doesn't behave like a typical tech stock. It doesn't moon 20% on a random Tuesday because of an AI announcement. Instead, it’s a slow-burn compounder.
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The company recently narrowed its 2025 earnings guidance to a midpoint of $3.85 per share. That’s solid. Even better? They actually raised their cash flow outlook. CFO Eric Tanzberger has been vocal about the company’s ability to generate cash even when the broader economy feels a bit shaky.
What’s driving the value right now?
- Pre-need sales: This is basically people prepaying for their own funerals. SCI has been crushing it here, with pre-need cemetery sales growing nearly 10% in recent quarters.
- The "Pull-forward" effect is over: During the height of the pandemic, the industry saw a tragic spike in volume. For a while, investors worried that the "excess deaths" meant fewer customers in 2024 and 2025. Management now says that effect is basically gone.
- Aggressive buybacks: SCI loves buying back its own shares. Over the last year, they've significantly reduced the share count, which makes every remaining share—the ones you might own—more valuable.
Why the Death Care Industry Isn't Just "Business as Usual"
People often assume that because everyone dies, SCI is a guaranteed win. It’s not that simple. Consumer tastes are changing.
Cremation rates are skyrocketing. They’re projected to hit over 80% by 2045. For a company like SCI, which traditionally made more money on high-end caskets and burial plots, this sounds like a disaster. But they’ve pivoted. They are now focusing on "high-value cremation," which includes memorial services and specialized urns that bridge the revenue gap.
The Real Competition
It’s not just other funeral homes. It's the "direct-to-consumer" startups. These companies offer $1,000 cremations with no bells and whistles. SCI counters this with their "SCI Direct" brand, but it’s a lower-margin game.
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Still, analysts are bullish. UBS and Raymond James have recently reaffirmed "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings, with price targets stretching up toward $95. That suggests a decent double-digit upside from current levels, plus a dividend that’s been growing for 15 straight years.
Is the Current Valuation Fair?
Let’s talk numbers for a second. SCI is currently trading at a P/E ratio of roughly 22x. Is that expensive?
In a vacuum, maybe. But when you compare it to the "Personal Services" industry average, it’s actually fairly standard for a market leader. They have a massive footprint—over 1,400 funeral homes and 450 cemeteries across North America. You can't just "disrupt" a cemetery easily; land-use permits and historical presence create a massive moat.
What Most People Get Wrong About SCI
A common misconception is that high interest rates kill this stock because of the company's debt load. While SCI does carry significant debt, most of it is fixed-rate or well-laddered. Plus, their "trust funds"—the money people pay in advance—are invested. When rates are higher, those investments can actually yield better returns, which helps offset the cost of debt.
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It’s a balancing act.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at the Service Corp International stock price today and wondering if you missed the boat, consider these steps:
- Watch the Pre-need Backlog: This is the most important "hidden" asset. SCI has billions in future revenue sitting in trusts. If pre-need sales start to dip, that’s your early warning sign.
- The 25% Rule: Some analysts, like those at Morningstar, have suggested the stock might be undervalued by as much as 20% relative to its intrinsic "fair value" (some models put that near $100). If the price dips toward $75 again, that’s historically been a strong entry point.
- Dividend Reinvestment: Don't just sit on the shares. The 1.6% yield isn't massive, but when you compound it with their consistent 10% dividend growth rate, the "yield on cost" looks incredible after five or ten years.
- Monitor Cremation Mix: Check the quarterly reports. If the average revenue per case stays steady even as cremation rates rise, it means management is successfully upselling services. That's the secret sauce.
Basically, SCI isn't a "get rich quick" play. It’s a "get rich slowly while everyone else is distracted by the next tech bubble" play. The demographics are in their favor, the cash flow is robust, and the market position is dominant. Just keep an eye on those interest rates and the pace of their share buybacks.