If you’re looking at the calendar and thinking, "Wait, didn't we just finish an election?" you're not alone. But politics in D.C. never actually stops. Right now, in early 2026, the question of what senate races are still undecided isn't about counting paper ballots in a basement anymore—it's about the massive, wide-open power vacuum left by a wave of retirements and the frantic scramble to fill seats before the midterms.
The 2024 cycle left Republicans with a comfortable 53-47 majority (counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats). But comfort is a lie in the Senate. As we sit here in January 2026, the "undecided" part of the map refers to the 35 seats up for grabs this November.
Honestly, the map is a nightmare for whoever has to defend it. This cycle, we have 33 regularly scheduled Class 2 races plus two special elections. Republicans are defending 22 of those seats, while Democrats are only defending 13. On paper, that sounds like a Republican defensive crouch, but the reality is way more complicated because of who is leaving.
The Retirement Wave: Open Seats Nobody Saw Coming
You can't talk about undecided races without talking about the people who just decided to pack their bags. We’ve had a massive surge in retirements. As of mid-January 2026, nine senators have already said they are done. Five Republicans and four Democrats are heading for the exits, and that changes everything.
Take North Carolina. Senator Thom Tillis shocked everyone by announcing his retirement during the final debates over the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." That turned a "lean Republican" seat into a total toss-up overnight. Democrats managed to snag Roy Cooper—the former Governor who is basically a legend in the state—to run for that seat. It’s arguably the most "undecided" seat in the country right now because both parties think they have a 50/50 shot.
📖 Related: Sweden School Shooting 2025: What Really Happened at Campus Risbergska
Then there’s Iowa. Joni Ernst is out. That was a gut punch for the GOP. Iowa has trended red lately, but an open seat is always a wildcard. And don't even get me started on Michigan and Minnesota. Gary Peters and Tina Smith are both retiring on the Democratic side. These are states Trump either won or came incredibly close to winning in 2024. If Democrats can't hold those, the "undecided" question gets answered very quickly with a Republican supermajority.
The "Special" Cases: Florida and Ohio
Usually, we talk about 33 seats. This year, it’s 35. Why? Because the executive branch raided the Senate.
When Marco Rubio became Secretary of State and J.D. Vance became Vice President, they left holes in Florida and Ohio. Those seats were filled by appointments, but now those appointees have to face the voters in special elections this November.
Ohio: The Vance Vacancy
Jon Husted was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill the Vance seat. He’s running to keep it, but he’s facing a massive challenge. Sherrod Brown—who lost his own seat in 2024—is reportedly being courted for a comeback, or at least a high-profile Democratic challenger is expected to emerge by the March primary deadline. Ohio has been getting redder, but special elections are weird. Turnout is everything.
👉 See also: Will Palestine Ever Be Free: What Most People Get Wrong
Florida: The Rubio Seat
Florida is basically the headquarters of the current administration's ideology, but the special election to fill Rubio's remaining two years is still technically "undecided" in terms of the field. Republicans are favored, but the primary is going to be a bloodbath.
The Alaska Curveball: Mary Peltola Enters the Chat
If you want a real "did not see that coming" moment for the 2026 cycle, look at Alaska. Republican Dan Sullivan is running for a third term. Usually, that’s a safe bet. But just a few days ago, Mary Peltola announced she’s running.
Peltola is a powerhouse. She was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress and has a massive "fish, family, and freedom" brand that actually works in a state that hates D.C. meddling. Alaska uses a top-four nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice voting. That makes the outcome truly undecided because the math is so different from a standard Republican vs. Democrat race. A recent Data for Progress poll showed Sullivan at 46% and Peltola at 45%. That is a statistical tie in a state Trump won by 13 points.
Why Georgia and Michigan Are Keeping Strategists Awake
If Democrats want any hope of taking back the chamber, they have to be perfect. They need a net gain of four seats. That means holding onto Georgia and Michigan while flipping places like Maine and North Carolina.
✨ Don't miss: JD Vance River Raised Controversy: What Really Happened in Ohio
The Ossoff Defense
Jon Ossoff is the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat. Period. He’s 38, a millennial, and he’s up against a Georgia GOP that is hungry for redemption after the 2022 and 2024 cycles. A WPA Intelligence poll from mid-January shows Governor Brian Kemp (should he run) leading Ossoff 46% to 40%. About 14% of voters are still undecided. That 14% is the entire ballgame.
The Michigan Vacuum
With Gary Peters retiring, Michigan is a free-for-all. We’re seeing names like Pete Buttigieg and Haley Stevens tossed around on the Democratic side. On the GOP side, Mike Rogers—who barely lost to Elissa Slotkin in '24—is the name to watch. Michigan is the definition of a purple state. It's essentially a coin flip right now.
The Undecided Voters: What the Polls Actually Say
It's easy to look at party labels, but the "other/undecided" column in recent generic ballots is huge. According to an average of major polls like Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics as of January 12, 2026, about 13.9% of voters haven't picked a side.
| Poll Source | Dem % | GOP % | Undecided/Other % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | 43.7 | 39.4 | 16.9 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 44.5 | 40.1 | 15.4 |
| VoteHub | 47.0 | 41.7 | 11.3 |
| Average | 45.3 | 40.7 | 13.9 |
That nearly 14% of the electorate is where the "undecided" senate races will be won or lost. These aren't just "undecided" people; they're often "unconvinced" people. They’re tired of the inflation talk, tired of the border back-and-forth, and they’re looking for someone who doesn't sound like a talking points memo.
Actionable Steps for the 2026 Cycle
If you’re trying to keep track of what senate races are still undecided, don't just wait for November. The "real" decisions are happening right now in the primary stages.
- Watch the Primary Deadlines: States like Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas have primaries as early as March. If a candidate you like doesn't make it through the primary, the general election doesn't matter.
- Check Candidate Recruitment: Keep an eye on the "Big Three" recruitment targets: Roy Cooper in NC, Janet Mills in Maine, and Mary Peltola in Alaska. Their entry changes a race from "Safe Republican" to "Toss-up" instantly.
- Follow the Money: In an undecided race, the first person to define their opponent usually wins. Look at the fundraising hauls for the Q1 2026 period (which will be released in April). That tells you who has the momentum.
- Ignore National Noise: A race in Maine (Susan Collins) is going to be about local issues and Collins' unique brand of independence. It won't look like a race in Texas. Treat each "undecided" seat as its own little country.
The Senate is currently 53-47 for the GOP. By the time the 2026 midterms are over, we could be looking at anything from a 57-seat Republican stronghold to a 50-50 tie that forces everyone back to the negotiating table. Between retirements, special elections, and high-profile recruits, the list of undecided races is only going to get more volatile as we head into the spring.