So, you’re looking at the seattle weather forecast tomorrow and thinking it's just another gray Thursday. Honestly, if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the apps usually lie by omission.
Tomorrow is January 15, 2026. The high is sitting around 48°F. The low? 40°F. On paper, that sounds like a standard "Big Dark" day in the Pacific Northwest. But there's a specific weirdness happening right now that most people are going to miss until they’re stuck in it.
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The Fog is the Real Story
Forget the rain for a second. We’ve been stuck under this stubborn upper-level ridge. While the National Weather Service (NWS) is technically calling for a "cloudy" day, the reality on the ground is likely going to be a soup of patchy fog and low stratus clouds.
Basically, the air is just sitting there. There's almost no wind—maybe 11 mph from the north if we’re lucky—which means the moisture from our recent rains has nowhere to go.
If you’re commuting on I-5 or taking the ferry from Bainbridge, don't expect to see the skyline until noon. Or at all. These "stubborn" fog banks in the South Sound have a habit of sticking around long past their welcome.
Why the 20% Chance of Rain is a Trap
The forecast says there's a 20% chance of precipitation during the day. In Seattle-speak, that doesn't mean it won't rain. It means it’ll probably "mist" you to death.
It’s that fine, needle-like drizzle that doesn't show up on radar but somehow soaks through a "water-resistant" shell in ten minutes.
- Morning: Expect gray. Lots of it.
- Afternoon: Maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but don't count on seeing the sun.
- Evening: The chance of rain drops to 5%, but the humidity stays at a whopping 91%.
This high humidity is why 48 degrees is going to feel more like 40. It’s that damp, bone-chilling cold that experts like those at the Washington State Climate Office warn about during these weak La Niña transitions.
The Bigger Picture: We’re in a "Snow Drought"
Here is what nobody talks about when they check the daily forecast: the mountains are hurting.
Even though we had those massive atmospheric rivers back in December, the National Weather Service Seattle and the Department of Ecology are flagging a major issue. We have plenty of water in the reservoirs—about 135% of the average in the Yakima Basin—but the snowpack is dismal.
As of mid-January 2026, statewide snowpack is only around 63% of normal. In the Olympics? It's closer to 50%.
Why does this matter for your Thursday? Because every "mild" 48-degree day in the city is a day where it isn't snowing enough in the Cascades. We are essentially watching a summer water crisis bake in real-time while we complain about needing a light jacket.
Getting Around Town Tomorrow
If you’re using King County Metro, heads up. There’s a bunch of construction reroutes on the RapidRide C, D, and H lines around 3rd and Virginia that are still in effect.
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Between the fog-induced traffic crawls and the bus relocations, your morning commute is going to be a test of patience.
- Check the WSDOT cameras before you head out; the fog is often thicker in the valleys than on the hills.
- Layer up. The 91% humidity makes the air feel heavy and cold.
- Don't trust the "dry" forecast—keep the hood up.
The Weird Science of January 15
Interestingly, the NWS is actually holding a SKYWARN Spotter Training tomorrow. It’s a bit ironic considering the weather looks so "boring," but these are the days when meteorologists look for subtle shifts in cloud structure and pressure.
We are currently in a transition phase. The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 75% chance we’ll move into "ENSO-neutral" territory by March. This means the predictable La Niña patterns are starting to break down, making tomorrow's forecast a bit of a wildcard.
Actionable Insights for Tomorrow:
- Drivers: Use your low beams in the morning. High beams will just reflect off the fog and blind you.
- Hikers: If you're heading to the Tiger Mountain area, expect near-zero visibility at the summits.
- Gardeners: With the "early thaw" vibes mentioned in recent almanac updates, you might see some bulbs peeking out. Resist the urge to prune; we could still get a freeze in February.
Keep an eye on the barometer. It's hovering around 30.16 inHg, indicating that high pressure is trying to keep things stable, but in Seattle, "stable" usually just means the gray isn't going anywhere.
Check your local micro-climate app before you leave the house—Ballard and Renton might as well be in different states tomorrow.