It is 2026, and the air around Highmark Stadium feels heavy. Familiar, but heavy. If you follow the Buffalo Bills, you know this feeling—the sort of localized atmospheric pressure that only exists when a 12-5 regular season ends with an overtime heartbreak in the Divisional Round. This time it was a 33-30 loss to the Denver Broncos. And once again, the spotlight isn't just on Josh Allen’s incredible arm or a defense that led the league in takeaways. It’s fixed squarely on the man in the headset.
Sean McDermott.
He’s the guy who broke the "Drought." He’s the architect of a culture that turned a laughingstock into a perennial powerhouse. But as we sit here in January 2026, the conversation has shifted. It’s no longer about whether he’s a "good" coach—his 98-50 career record screams that he is. It’s about whether he’s the right coach to actually lift the Lombardi Trophy.
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The McDermott Paradox: Stability vs. The Ceiling
Honestly, it’s kinda wild to look back at where this team was before 2017. For 17 years, Buffalo was the place where careers went to die. Then McDermott shows up with his "process" and suddenly, the Bills are winning 10, 11, 12, or 13 games every single year. They’ve become the model of consistency. In fact, in 2025, they became one of only six teams in NFL history to win at least 10 games in seven consecutive seasons.
But there’s a catch.
There is always a catch in Buffalo. Despite the wins and the five AFC East titles in the last six years, the Bills haven’t reached a Super Bowl under McDermott. They’ve lost in the Wild Card, they’ve lost in the Divisional, and they’ve lost in the AFC Championship. They’ve lost at home and they’ve lost on the road.
People love to talk about the "ceiling." Is McDermott the NFL’s version of a high-floor, low-ceiling asset? You've seen the arguments on Twitter. One side says you don't fire a guy who wins 66% of his games. The other side points to the 8-8 playoff record and says "enough is enough."
What Really Happened in the 2025 Season
The 2025 season was a rollercoaster that somehow ended exactly where most expected. Buffalo started hot, going 4-0. Josh Allen was playing at an MVP level again, and the rushing attack—led by James Cook—actually finished #1 in the league. That’s a huge deal. For years, the knock on McDermott's Bills was that they were too one-dimensional. In 2025, they finally found a ground game, racking up 2,714 rushing yards.
The defense was classic McDermott: opportunistic and disciplined. They forced a turnover in 14 consecutive home games. They held opponents to 21.5 points per game.
Yet, when the chips were down in the playoffs against Denver, the old ghosts returned. A lead that couldn't be held. A defensive lapse in a crucial moment. A 33-30 final score that felt like a replay of every other January exit.
The Joe Brady Factor
You can't talk about the head coach of the Buffalo Bills without talking about his staff. Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady has been the "secret sauce" for Josh Allen’s recent dominance. Brady basically unlocked a version of Allen that is more efficient and less prone to those "hero ball" interceptions.
But success breeds poaching. As of early 2026, rumors are swirling that the Baltimore Ravens—who just moved on from John Harbaugh—are looking at Brady for their head coaching vacancy. If McDermott loses Brady, the pressure on him to maintain the offense's elite production doubles.
The Human Side of the Headset
We often treat coaches like they’re just play-calling robots, but McDermott is pretty open about the toll the job takes. In an interview with ESPN late last year, he talked about how he tries to stay "tied to the bigger picture" for his family. He and his wife, Jamie, have three kids who have grown up in Western New York. His oldest, Maddie, just committed to play softball at Notre Dame.
He’s a guy who cares about the community. He’s active in skin cancer and food allergy awareness. He’s built a locker room where players largely respect him, even if the NFLPA report cards show some gripes about travel efficiency (the Bills got an F-minus for travel in 2025, which is... yikes).
But the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" business. And "lately" involves a lot of regular-season trophies and not enough Super Bowl rings.
Why Firing Him Isn't as Simple as You Think
There’s a segment of the fan base—and some national media pundits—calling for a change. They see John Harbaugh sitting out there as a free agent and think, "Why not swap?"
But here is the reality of the situation:
- The Contract: McDermott is signed through 2027. Firing him means Terry Pegula is eating a massive amount of money.
- The Tandem: McDermott and GM Brandon Beane are tied at the hip. They arrived together in 2017. They built this roster together. Usually, if one goes, the other follows, and do you really want to lose the guy who drafted Josh Allen?
- The Market: If Buffalo fires McDermott today, he has a new job by Tuesday. He is a defensive mastermind who has proven he can build a culture from scratch.
Basically, the Bills are in that "middle-class" trap of the NFL elite. They are too good to tank, but they keep running into a wall in January. Whether that wall is Patrick Mahomes (who the Bills actually beat four times in a row in the regular season recently) or a surging Broncos team, the result is the same.
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Actionable Insights for the 2026 Offseason
If the Buffalo Bills decide to stick with Sean McDermott—which seems likely given the stability the Pegulas crave—several things need to change immediately to avoid another "same old Bills" narrative next year.
1. Solve the "Brain Drain" Problem
If Joe Brady leaves for a head coaching gig, McDermott cannot afford a "transition year" on offense. He needs to hire an innovator, not a system-maintainer. The offense needs to continue the evolution it started in 2025, keeping the rushing attack as a primary weapon to take the load off Allen.
2. Address the Player Feedback
That NFLPA report card isn't just noise. If the players are frustrated with travel schedules and facilities, that breeds "micro-resentment" that shows up in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. Management needs to fix the logistical "F-minus" grades to ensure the team is physically at their peak when it matters.
3. The "Killer Instinct" Defensive Philosophy
McDermott’s defense is great at stopping average teams. It struggles to get that one final stop against elite quarterbacks in overtime. Whether it’s a change in personnel at the safety position or a shift in how they disguise coverages in the final two minutes, the "bend but don't break" philosophy needs a "snap" component.
4. Roster Refreshment
The window is still open, but the hinges are getting creaky. With stars like Matt Milano and Dion Dawkins getting older, Beane and McDermott have to hit on at least three starters in the 2026 NFL Draft to keep the talent level high without exploding the salary cap.
The head coach of the Buffalo Bills remains one of the most polarizing figures in the sport. He is simultaneously the best thing to happen to the franchise in thirty years and the man standing in the way of its greatest ambition. As we move into the 2026 offseason, the "Process" is facing its ultimate trial.