The legal world changed on June 26, 2015. You probably remember the photos of the White House lit up in rainbow colors. It was a massive moment. When the Supreme Court handed down the decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, it felt like the final word on SCOTUS same sex marriage rulings. People thought the debate was over. Done. Dusted.
But legally? It’s complicated.
Right now, there is a lot of anxiety bubbling up. If you spend any time on social media or watching the news, you’ve likely seen people panicking that the right to marry is about to vanish overnight. It’s not quite that simple, but the concerns aren't baseless either. To understand where we are, you have to look at how we got here—and it wasn’t just one single court case that did the heavy lifting.
The Long Road to Obergefell
Before 2015, the map of the United States was a patchwork. In some states, you could get married on a Tuesday and be legally "unmarried" by the time you drove across the state line on Wednesday. It was a mess for taxes, hospital visitation, and inheritance.
Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion, didn't just focus on "fairness." He talked about dignity. He argued that the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses basically mean that states can't kick certain groups out of the institution of marriage.
It was a 5-4 split.
That narrow margin is why people are so twitchy today. When a decision rests on a single vote, and the makeup of the court changes—which it has, drastically—lawyers start looking at the fine print. The dissenting opinions in 2015, written by Justices Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito, were scathing. They didn't just disagree; they argued the Court was overstepping its bounds and "inventing" rights not found in the Constitution.
The Dobbs Earthquake
Everything changed in 2022. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs decision, it sent a shockwave through every privacy-based right we have.
Justice Clarence Thomas didn't mince words in his concurring opinion. He explicitly wrote that the Court should "reconsider" other precedents, specifically naming Obergefell.
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That’s the "smoking gun" people point to.
However, it’s worth noting that Justice Samuel Alito, who wrote the majority opinion in Dobbs, tried to build a fence around the ruling. He claimed that abortion is different because it involves "potential life," whereas SCOTUS same sex marriage cases do not. Is that fence strong enough to hold? Some legal scholars say yes; others think it’s a paper-thin excuse that won't hold up if a fresh challenge reaches the bench.
The Respect for Marriage Act: A Safety Net?
Because of the fear that the Court might backtrack, Congress actually stepped in. This is something people often overlook when they talk about the "end" of marriage equality.
In late 2022, President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act (RFMA).
Does it do the same thing as Obergefell? Not exactly. It’s more of a "plan B."
If the Supreme Court ever officially struck down the 2015 ruling, the RFMA wouldn't necessarily force every state to issue new marriage licenses to same-sex couples. But—and this is a huge "but"—it requires every state to recognize valid marriages performed in other states. It also requires the federal government to recognize them.
So, if you get married in New York, and you move to a state that theoretically banned same-sex marriage in a post-Obergefell world, that state still has to treat you as married for legal purposes. It’s a clever bit of legislative engineering, but it’s not a perfect shield.
Real-World Impact on Families
We aren't just talking about abstract legal theories. We’re talking about real people like Jim Obergefell, who just wanted his name on his husband’s death certificate.
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There are thousands of families currently navigating "confirmatory adoption" or "second-parent adoption" just to be safe. Even though SCOTUS same sex marriage is the law of the land, many family law attorneys are advising couples to get adoption decrees for their children. Why? Because a court order (like an adoption) is generally harder to overturn than a marriage license if the legal landscape shifts.
It’s an extra layer of bureaucracy and cost that straight couples don't have to deal with. It honestly sucks. But it shows the level of caution that exists in the current climate.
The Religious Liberty Conflict
The biggest "front line" right now isn't the marriage license itself. It’s the stuff around it.
Cases like 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (2023) have shown that the Court is very interested in protecting the "expressive freedom" of business owners. The Court ruled that a web designer couldn't be forced to create websites for same-sex weddings if it violated her beliefs.
We are seeing a shift from "can you get married?" to "can people refuse to serve your marriage?"
- Employment: Can a religious organization fire someone for marrying a same-sex partner?
- Healthcare: Can a provider opt out of certain family-based coverages?
- Adoption: Can state-funded agencies refuse to place children with same-sex couples?
These are the "death by a thousand cuts" cases that might define the next decade of LGBTQ+ law.
What's Actually Going to Happen?
Legal experts are split. Some, like those at the Heritage Foundation, argue that Obergefell was an "unconstitutional exercise of raw judicial power" and believe it’s only a matter of time before it's challenged. They want the issue returned to the states, much like abortion was.
On the flip side, groups like the ACLU and Lambda Legal point out that marriage is "different" because of reliance interests.
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Basically, millions of people have organized their entire lives—mortgages, health insurance, retirement plans, child custody—around the fact that they are married. Upsetting that would create a chaotic legal nightmare that even a conservative court might want to avoid. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, for instance, has often shown a preference for stability and precedent in areas where society has deeply integrated a rule.
Steps You Can Take Now
If you’re worried about the future of SCOTUS same sex marriage and how it affects your personal life, sitting around and stressing won't help. You have to be proactive.
Update your estate planning immediately. Don't rely solely on a marriage license. Make sure you have a durable power of attorney and a healthcare proxy in place. These documents allow you to designate exactly who can make decisions for you, regardless of your marital status.
Look into confirmatory adoption. If you have children and only one parent is the biological parent, get a court-ordered adoption. It’s a belt-and-suspenders approach. A marriage certificate is a "status," but an adoption decree is a "judgment," and judgments are protected under the Full Faith and Credit Clause of the Constitution in a much sturdier way.
Stay informed on state-level legislation. Since the federal government is currently in a bit of a deadlock, the real action is happening in state legislatures. Some states are moving to enshrine marriage equality in their state constitutions, while others are passing "religious freedom" bills that might limit how your marriage is recognized in daily life.
Talk to a specialized family law attorney. Laws are changing fast. A quick consultation can tell you if your current protections are actually as solid as you think they are.
The reality is that while the 2015 ruling felt like a finish line, it was actually just the start of a new chapter in American law. The "dignity" that Justice Kennedy wrote about is still being weighed against the "religious liberty" arguments of the current court majority. It’s a tug-of-war that isn’t ending anytime soon. Keep your documents updated, keep your eyes on the docket, and don't assume that a single court win is a permanent shield.