It is kinda wild when you think about it. Scottie Scheffler, a guy who basically spent the last two years playing golf like a glitch in the Matrix, still hasn't figured out the US Open. If you look at his 2024 and 2025 seasons, they’re legitimately historic. We’re talking about a guy who won the Masters, the PGA Championship, The Open, and an Olympic Gold Medal within a two-year span. He’s been the World No. 1 for over 150 weeks.
But then there's the Scottie Scheffler US Open resume.
It’s the one major that seems to actively fight back against his robotic consistency. While he’s been racking up Claret Jugs and Green Jackets, the USGA has essentially been his kryptonite. Most people assume that because he’s the best ball-striker since prime Tiger Woods, he should just sleepwalk into a US Open trophy. Honestly? That hasn't been the case. The reality is much messier, filled with "turtleback" greens at Pinehurst and "church pew" bunkers at Oakmont that have made the best player in the world look surprisingly human.
The Pinehurst Nightmare of 2024
Going into the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst No. 2, Scheffler was the heaviest betting favorite we’d seen in fifteen years. He had just won the Memorial. He was winning everything. People were joking that the only way to stop him was to throw him in a Louisville jail cell (which actually happened, but that’s a different story).
Pinehurst didn't care about the hype.
For the first time in his professional career—that’s 120 tournaments—Scottie played four consecutive rounds without breaking par. He finished at +8. Think about that. A guy who leads the PGA Tour in scoring average couldn't find a single red number over 72 holes. He looked exhausted. His shirt was untucked, he was sweating in 90-degree heat, and he basically admitted that he couldn't read the greens.
He finished T41. It wasn't just a bad week; it was a total system failure.
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The greens at Pinehurst are shaped like inverted saucers. If you miss your spot by two feet, the ball rolls forty yards away into a sandy waste area. Scottie, who usually hits every green in regulation, was suddenly chipping from the "native areas" five times a round. He wasn't just losing to the field; he was losing to the architecture.
Why Oakmont in 2025 Was Different (But Still Not Enough)
By the time the 2025 US Open rolled around at Oakmont, the narrative had shifted. Scheffler was coming off a massive win at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. He was back in "Terminator" mode.
Oakmont is a different beast than Pinehurst. It’s not about the sandy waste areas; it’s about the brutal, thick rough and greens that are arguably the fastest in the world. Scheffler actually played much better here, finishing T7 with a total of +4. J.J. Spaun ended up winning that one, showing the kind of "grit" that the USGA loves, but Scottie was lurking.
He actually started the week at Oakmont with a 73, which had everyone thinking, “Here we go again.” But he clawed back.
- Round 1: 73 (Started rough, hit the church pews early)
- Round 2: 71 (Steady, but the putter was lukewarm)
- Round 3: 70 (Moved up the leaderboard)
- Round 4: 70 (Finished T7)
The problem wasn't his ball-striking. It never is. In 2025, Scheffler led the tour in Strokes Gained: Total (2.743) and Strokes Gained: Approach (1.291). He’s hitting the ball closer to the hole than anyone else on the planet. But at the US Open, "close" isn't always enough. When the greens are running at a 14 or 15 on the Stimpmeter, a 12-foot birdie putt can easily turn into a 6-foot par comeback.
The Putting Mystery
Let’s talk about the flatstick. This is the part everyone debates. In 2024, Scottie’s putting at Pinehurst was, frankly, abysmal. He ranked 73rd out of 74 players who made the cut in putting. He was burning edges all week.
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In 2025, he improved. He switched to a mallet putter and actually finished the season ranked 22nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. That’s a huge jump from being a liability to being a strength. But the US Open tests a very specific kind of putting: defensive putting.
Most weeks, Scottie is trying to see how many birdies he can make. At the US Open, you’re trying to see how many bogeys you can avoid. It’s a psychological shift. He’s mentioned in interviews that he sometimes struggles to see the breaks on Bermuda greens or the extreme slopes the USGA favors.
Examining the Track Record
If you look at his full US Open history, it's actually better than the recent "struggles" suggest:
- 2022 (The Country Club): T2. He lost by one stroke to Matt Fitzpatrick. This was almost his moment.
- 2023 (LACC): 3rd. He was right there again, just couldn't catch Wyndham Clark.
- 2024 (Pinehurst): T41. The total outlier.
- 2025 (Oakmont): T7. A return to form, but no trophy.
He’s clearly capable of winning this tournament. He has the high ball flight needed to stop shots on firm greens. He has the scrambling ability—he actually led the tour in Scrambling from the Rough in 2025 at 69%. So why hasn't it happened?
It might just be a matter of timing. Golf is a game of tiny margins. At Brookline in '22, if one putt drops, he’s a US Open champion.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you’re following Scottie’s career or betting on him in future US Opens, here is what actually matters. Forget the "No. 1 in the world" tag for a second and look at the specifics.
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Watch the Course Setup Scottie thrives on courses where you can "work" the ball. Pinehurst’s extreme "turtleback" greens neutralized his approach game because the ball wouldn't stay where it landed. He does much better on traditional, penal courses like Oakmont or Winged Foot where hitting fairways and greens is rewarded with a flat surface.
The "Busy Buildup" Factor After 2024, Scheffler admitted that playing the Memorial (and winning it) the week before the US Open might have drained him. He’s a guy who gives 100% every time he tees it up. Moving forward, his schedule the week before a US Open is a major indicator of how he’ll perform. If he rests, he’s dangerous.
The Putter is the Bellwether Keep an eye on his putting stats in the two tournaments leading up to the US Open. If he’s gaining at least 0.5 strokes on the greens, his ball-striking is usually so good that he’ll finish in the top 5 regardless of how hard the course is.
Next Steps for Fans and Analysts To really understand the Scottie Scheffler US Open dynamic, you should compare his "Strokes Gained: Around the Green" stats on different grass types. He’s statistically better on bentgrass than he is on the grainy Bermuda often found at Southern US Open venues.
Keep an eye on the 2026 venue. If the course rewards precision over "luck of the draw" lies, Scottie is the inevitable favorite. He’s already proven he can win on every other stage; the USGA's trophy is the last major piece of the puzzle for a guy who is already a lock for the Hall of Fame.